Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have the lead in the 2024 debate, but control of the House and Senate is also highly contested, and a series of fluid races could produce surprises on election night. NBC News reports that there is a possibility.
These sleeper races could determine which party wins a majority in the House or Senate, which will have a major impact on the next president’s policies. Candidates are determined by a variety of factors, including turnout and whether a candidate has the unique ability to counter broader political winds.
Here are nine congressional races where one side should have a clear advantage, but it looks like there will be a battle ahead.
Texas Senate: Cruz fights tenaciously
Democrats need a miracle to maintain their Senate majority, and Texas may be their best chance for one. Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is running polarizing Republican Sen. Ted Cruz for money, making him look like a do-nothing extremist.
Cruz has criticized Allred for being too liberal for Texas, highlighting issues like transgender rights and energy production. The two-term incumbent remains popular in Republican strongholds, but some polls show him leading over Allred within the margin of error.
Mr. Cruz sounded the alarm and implored conservative donors to send more money to fend off an onslaught from Mr. Allred and his Democratic allies. Adding to the intrigue, Mr. Cruz underperformed in his last Senate election in 2018, fending off former Democratic Sen. Beto O’Rourke by less than three points.
Nebraska Senate: Populist upstarts scare Republicans
This race should never have been noticed. But Dan Osborn, a 48-year-old mechanic, union leader and Navy veteran, made headlines by running as an independent as a populist outsider.
Osborne, who has significantly outperformed two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, has launched high-profile ads pledging to disrupt the status quo. In one ad, he said the Senate is made up of “billionaire-controlled billionaires,” calling Fisher a career politician who has failed to serve Nebraska and is out to enrich himself. They are blaming him for just being in Congress.
High-quality statewide polls are rare, but the ones that are available show Mr. Osborne with a narrow lead in some places and Mr. Fisher with a lead in others. Fisher still has the advantage in this ruby red state, but what was supposed to be a layup for her is now a real battle. Republicans sent in the cavalry and poured millions of dollars into smearing Osborn as a left-wing Trojan horse to strip control of the Senate from Republicans. Osborne has said he will not caucus with either party if elected.
Maryland Senate: Can Hogan defy gravity?
Republican Larry Hogan defied gravity to win Maryland’s gubernatorial elections in the deep blue state in 2014 and 2018. He now takes on the more difficult task of becoming the first Republican to win a Maryland Senate seat since 1980.
Hogan is trailing heavily in the state that Joe Biden won by a staggering 33 points in 2020, and the focus on federal issues and growing party polarization make things tough for Hogan. It has become.
He is trying to capitalize on the moderate image that gave him an advantage in the gubernatorial election. His rival, Angela Allsbrooks, a first-time candidate for Congress and a former Prince George’s County executive, reminded voters of Hogan’s veto of the abortion access bill and emphasized the stakes in which party controls the Senate. It emphasizes relationships.
Polls show Mr. Hogan dramatically ahead of Mr. Trump in Maryland, but still behind Mr. Alsobrooks.
Florida Senate: Can Democrats oust Rick Scott?
Florida is rapidly falling off the map for Democrats, and Trump is widely expected to carry the state at the presidential level. However, some Democrats aiming for an upset victory in the difficult Senate situation are hopeful that they can defeat Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.).
Scott, a former governor, has shown an uncanny ability to wrest statewide victories by narrow margins in Florida, including during the red waves of 2010 and 2014 and the blue wave of 2018.
His rival, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell of Florida, has focused primarily on reproductive rights. Democrats hope some of Scott’s hard-right views will alienate moderates, and a ballot measure to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution will help boost turnout on the Democratic side. I’m looking forward to it. Still, he remains a favorite.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Former Freedom Caucus leader faces serious threat
This race has all the makings of a shocker, with far-right incumbent U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in a moderately Republican-leaning district putting his political career on the line with former TV news anchor and Democrat Janelle Stelson. facing a tough battle. It is well known locally.
Mr. Stelson has raised eye-popping amounts of money and stalked Mr. Perry by portraying the former chairman of the right-wing Freedom Caucus as out of touch with the district. Republicans have poured money into Mr. Perry’s defense, and Mr. Perry has responded by walking back some of his controversial positions, including supporting cuts to Social Security benefits.
Cook Political Report with Amy Walter recently redesignated the once Republican-leaning race as a “toss-up.”
Virginia’s 2nd District: An early bellwether of how Republicans are holding up.
Early Republican Virginia Rep. Jen Quiggans defeated Democrat Missy Cotter Smasall by about 3 points after defeating the Democratic incumbent by about 3 points in 2022 when the district was redistricted to lean Republican. facing.
With Virginia being one of the first states on the East Coast to close polls on election night, the results for this race are likely to help Republicans maintain support in the districts they need to hold the race. It can be seen as an indicator of whether or not there is. House majority. If the Democrats flip it, that means they’re probably on their way to a good night.
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District: Controversial Republican freshman tries to hang on.
Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden made headlines during his first two years in Washington, including making lewd comments in the Senate and heckling Biden during the State of the Union address.
He is supported in a red district previously held by moderate Democratic Rep. Ron Kind. But some Democrats see an attractive opportunity to persuade enough voters to split the ticket and pull off an upset. Democrat Rebecca Cook is trying to do that by running as an acceptable moderate alternative in the district.
Texas 34th District: A test of whether Latinos lean Republican
In a year of shifting coalitions, this heavily Latino district highlights the dynamics that could shape the 2024 election. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is aiming to take on Mayra Flores, a Mexican-born millennial who promotes far-right rhetoric and seeks to provoke resistance to transgender rights.
Gonzalez is favored in this Democratic-leaning district, but polls show Trump may gain support from Latino voters. The magnitude of these gains and whether districts are willing to represent Latina women in MAGA could potentially cause shockwaves.
California’s 47th Congressional District: Republicans focus on vacant seat in Newport Beach
Two-term U.S. Rep. Katie Porter vacated her Orange County district to run unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate. The Republican candidate is Scott Baugh, a former California state legislator and Orange County Republican Party chairman who lost to Porter in 2022 by less than four points. The Democratic candidate is state Sen. Dave Minn, who made headlines early in his candidacy after running for office on a misdemeanor charge of drunkenness. Driving.
California has emerged as a bright spot for House Democrats this cycle. If Republicans want to reduce their vote share, this Newport Beach district (a Republican stronghold and trending blue during the Trump era) is the best place to flip the district. It might be a solution.
This article first appeared on NBCNews.com. More from NBC News:
Source link
