California is gradually gearing up for the 2026 gubernatorial election. If you could pick any current candidate from a police lineup, you’d either work in Sacramento, have an unhealthy obsession with state politics, or both.
That’s not to condemn the crimes of those running to replace Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited. (Rap sheets aren’t necessarily harmful these days; just look at our next president.)
Rather, the people seeking to become California’s 41st governor aren’t necessarily a bunch of famous celebrities. If they form a support group, they could call it Anonymous Candidates.
For the record, the official candidate is former House Speaker and Senate Pro Tem Toni Atkins. Stephen Krubeck, Southern California philanthropist and businessman. Deputy Governor Eleni Kounalakis. Tony Thurmond, California Superintendent of Public Instruction. Antonio Villaraigosa, former mayor of Los Angeles. former Secretary of State Betty Yee;
There is talk that others may also participate in the contest. Atty. General Rob Bonta is often mentioned. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter admitted she’s keeping an eye on the race. Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely candidate, has done nothing publicly to fuel or quell speculation that she will take over after leaving office later this month.
But even the famous Harris and Porter fall short of two of the most famous and bold faces elected governor of California: Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Or even be remotely disqualified.
Indeed, in contrast to California’s glamorous image, Mr. Regan and Mr. Schwarzenegger come in a long line of drab and mostly mediocre candidates elected to the state’s top offices. He is an eccentric person. Think George Doukmezian, Pete Wilson, Gray Davis. Their public persona may be best expressed in broad strokes of beige, taupe, and, of course, gray.
Even Jerry Brown seemed to have calmed down by the time he was sworn in as governor again, 36 years after he first took the oath of office. (There were no weird tilts on his African safari with Linda Ronstadt or his second visit to the White House.)
“There’s a perception that somehow Californians are obsessed with movie stars and TV stars, and to some extent that’s true,” said Garry South, a Democratic strategist who twice helped elect Davis as governor. . “But I don’t think that view accurately reflects how California voters feel about politicians.”
Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected governor for the first time under the unusual circumstances of a recall election.
(Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press)
The state’s voters, it turns out, are far more pragmatic than the sign-chasing, Hollywood-worshipping stereotypes suggest.
Gail Kaufman, another veteran Democratic strategist, has participated in countless focus groups. She said that whenever voters are presented with a celebrity’s name — speculation that the celebrity might run for governor has become a staple of California campaigning — “voters immediately “They’re going to take the next step and say, ‘Well, what are we going to do when we become governor?'” “”
This suggests voters aren’t as excited about all the glitz and shine as political commentators think.
Mr. Schwarzenegger was elected under unusual circumstances in 2003, but his campaign was significantly shortened and lasted just over eight weeks. The fleeting time frame gave the film’s megastar a unique opportunity to use his fame and name recognition to woo Davis’ replacement, who was recalled by voters the same day.
It’s also worth noting that Schwarzenegger wasn’t a complete political novice.
His involvement with the Kennedy family through his marriage to Maria Shriver, his service as chairman of the Physical Fitness and Sports Council under President George H.W. Bush, and his involvement in a statewide ballot measure promoting after-school youth programs, among other things. The successful sponsorship activities of the previous year had a great influence on him. Schwarzenegger was the patina of political know-how that helped legitimize his candidacy.
Although Reagan had essentially emerged as an actor by the time he ran for governor, by the time he began his 1966 campaign he had built an even longer and more thorough political resume than Schwarzenegger. I had it. Even then, Reagan was greatly aided by the reactionary atmosphere that arose from the Watts riots, widespread campus unrest, and voter fatigue over Edmund G. “Pat” Brown, the father of incumbent Jerry Brown. Ta.
Despite the actors-turned-politicians’ success, campaign experience is crucial in California, a vast and unregulated state with more than 22 million registered voters. With the exception of Schwarzenegger, every candidate who followed Reagan had run successfully for statewide office at least once before being elected governor.
“People on the outside tend to think that we focus on celebrities because of what they see in Hollywood and in movies and on TV,” says Mark Baldassare. He spent decades polling voters and now directs research for the Public Policy Institute. California. “But the reality is, it’s a big state to govern, and it’s hard to win elections unless you’ve participated in elections before.”
No one knows what will happen in 2026, especially no friendly political columnists.
It would be little surprise if California voters chose someone without the current governor’s Hollywood looks, flashiness, or overt national ambitions — just like the leaden Mr. Doukmezian. The button-down Mr. Brown followed the flamboyant Mr. Brown, just as the megawatt Mr. Schwarzenegger followed. .
None of the candidates currently running will make tabloid headlines or break box office records.
That might be one of the best things for them.
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