Betting is happening everywhere in sports corners around the world.
Consider Major League Baseball. The league had official gaming partners, an official sportsbook at the broadcast home of the “Sunday Night Baseball” showcase, and the Dodgers’ World Series celebrations were sponsored by local resorts and casinos. On the TV screen, the bottom line displays updated odds and scores.
You can bet on the next pitch, the next home run, the next game, the next World Series. You may enjoy sports betting, or you may despise it.
Would you bet on tragedy? Are we profiting from the pain of our community? We should all condemn it.
Polymarket, which bills itself as a “prediction market,” is inviting people to bet a few dollars on 18 questions related to the Southern California wildfires as of Thursday, including: Will the Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades wildfires be 50% contained? Will all LA wildfires be completely extinguished by February?
“My guess is that most people like the idea of individuals betting on and making money from disasters and catastrophes,” said Nathaniel Fast, director of the Neeley Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making at the University of Southern California. I don’t think so.”
Polymarket is about setting the probability that something will happen and leveraging collective opinion to adjust that probability in real time.
For example, if the probability that the Palisades wildfire will be 50% contained by January 19th is set at 86% on Thursday, you can earn $102 by choosing “Yes” or $571 by choosing “No” You can earn dollars. Markets adjust opportunities and opportunities adjust markets.
A Polymarket spokesperson said in a statement to the Times: “These markets address the same questions discussed on cable news and I’ve proven it.”
Mr Fast said: “I can’t imagine people logging into polymarket to decide whether to evacuate or not.
“But on the other hand, if we can repeatedly demonstrate in events like this that we can actually generate accurate predictions, I think this could be a useful tool in the future.”
Amid the torrent of social media misinformation generated by the event and its immediate aftermath, prediction markets, powered in part by social media, are themselves at risk.
Polymarket states on its site that this is one criterion for the company to open a prediction market. “Is there any social benefit or newsworthiness in understanding market-generated probabilities?”
Mr Fast said: “It can create incentives to influence events, and in the case of bushfires it can lead to a callous attitude towards the suffering of others. If we’re turning an issue into a game, it can have a really negative impact on culture and society in ways that we don’t like.”
Polymarket talks about the NFL playoffs, whether Donald Trump will follow through on his promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift will get engaged this year, how many times Elon Musk has tweeted We offer odds on topics such as: One week.
it’s okay. But this is not the first time Polymarket has used a disaster as a basis for investment.
In 2023, after the submarine Titan was lost at sea en route to the Titanic, Polymarket asked, “Will the missing submarine be found by June 23rd?” Mother Jones has found two investors. One person bet yes and the other bet no.
Mother Jones reported that “despite being on opposite sides of the bet, both won…thousands of dollars by playing the odds to their advantage.”
Not so with polymarkets. Polymarket “does not charge fees on any of our markets and does not currently generate any revenue,” a company spokesperson said.
It may be the only thing worse than a company profiting from human misfortune, a technology startup that allows many people to profit from human misfortune.
Polymarket’s statement to the Times began: “We extend our deepest sympathies to everyone affected by these fires and thank the heroic efforts of first responders and everyday Angelenos.”
This statement rings hollow as long as people can still bet their money on the misfortunes that befall Angelenos every day. Polymarkets should reduce the likelihood of such wildfires. These six historic words uttered in 1954 are still true today. “Don’t you have any common sense?”
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