An unprecedented fourth “particularly dangerous situation” fire weather warning was issued Tuesday morning and is expected to last until Wednesday.
The National Weather Service holds this designation to indicate extreme red flag warnings when particularly dangerous fire weather conditions are expected.
Destructive wildfires occurred during each of the three warnings issued this season. More than 240 buildings have been destroyed in a 19,904-acre wildfire in Ventura County. The 4,037-acre Franklin Fire spread quickly in Malibu, destroying 20 buildings in December. And last week’s Palisades and Eaton fires rank among the deadliest and most destructive in modern California history.
Why are forecasters so concerned?
The tag “particularly dangerous conditions” has traditionally been used in rare cases by National Weather Service offices when forecasters believed there was a possibility of a long-lived, powerful, and violent tornado. It has been. The National Weather Service in Oxnard, which serves Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, adopted the system in 2020 in hopes of sounding a clear warning against the most extreme fire weather conditions. .
“Red flag warnings of any kind are dangerous, but there are gradients within the range of the situation, so we needed a way to convey the message of the extremes of the extremes, and PDS was born from that.” said Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
timing
The “particularly hazardous situation” goes into effect at 4 a.m. Tuesday and lasts until noon Wednesday in some areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Area affected
Areas covered by the latest warning include Camarillo, Fillmore, Northridge, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. Traditional red flag warnings were issued for Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura counties, Santa Claus and San Diego counties due to a combination of high winds, dry air, vegetation, and the potential for severe wildfires if they ignited. A mountainous area in parts of Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
forecast
There are already strong gusts of wind blowing. Maximum wind gusts of 112 mph were observed in the San Gabriel Mountains Tuesday morning.
New fires can spread rapidly. And with the Palisades and Eaton fires still burning, “these winds can definitely stir up some of the hot spots and potentially reignite the fires,” Kittel said.
Forecasters have warned that winds may be strong or light during the warning period.
“If there is a lull, don’t expect the event to be over or the forecast to be off,” Kittel said. “Winds can peak at any time so please remain alert throughout Wednesday.”
This event will be a more traditional Santa Ana with winds coming from the east and fire spreading to the west. This means the winds will be concentrated in Ventura County, compared to last week’s winds, which generally blow from the north and hit Los Angeles County hard.
“It’s definitely going to make me more focused.” [specific] “It’s widespread, not widespread like we saw last week,” Kittel said.
power issues
Kittel said localized power outages and downed trees are expected, although not as severe as last week.
winter fire
Typically this time of year in Southern California, “the ground is wet, the grass is green and there are no fragile plants,” said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “Santa Ana winds don’t usually blow continuously either.”
By his calculations, the region is about to enter its fourth Santa Ana wind event since last week’s devastating firestorm.
Extreme fire weather is also caused by unusually dry conditions. The last time it rained heavily in downtown Los Angeles was on May 5, when 0.13 inches of rain fell. Only 0.16 inches of rain has fallen there since Oct. 1, which is buckets of rain compared to the historical average of 5.34 inches that should have fallen by this point in the season.
National Weather Service meteorologist Rose Schoenfeld said the last time there was this little rain from early May to late December was in 1962, when just 0.14 inches fell in downtown Los Angeles.
“We’re certainly very close to an extreme record for the start of a dry winter,” Kittel said.
Former climatologist Bill Patzelt said: “In my opinion, the past nine months have been among the driest in the historical record since 1900. “I’ve never seen a severe event in Santa Ana overwhelm a normal winter.” rainy season. ”
There have been very few red flags or fires in recent years. In the year of water that ended on September 30, 2024, 22.15 inches of rain fell in downtown Los Angeles. Last year, it was 31.07 inches. The average annual precipitation in downtown Los Angeles is 14.25 inches.
Symptoms should start to ease and improve by Wednesday night. Ocean winds will bring increased humidity Friday and Saturday, but high winds could still be a problem in some areas, including the Antelope Valley and southwestern Santa Barbara County.
But that sense of relief may be short-lived. There are indications that another wind event could occur in Santa Ana on Sunday and Monday, including a 30% to 40% chance of a repeat red flag warning in Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Is there any salvation?
Kittel said next week’s fire weather probably won’t be as “intense” as last week, but even that silver lining is tempered by a complete lack of rain in the short-term forecast.
At this time, there is little chance of rain in Los Angeles until January 25th.
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