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Atmospheric river storms barreled towards the coast, damaging the area, strong enough to potentially rival some of the extreme storms that walled Southern California in recent winter. , elevates the illusion of floods.
The storm is expected to arrive in Southern California before Valentine’s Day, and is expected to be the strongest winter ever, according to Oxnard’s National Weather Service.
Over the southern strip, it threatens to see heavy rainfall of more than 2-4 inches along the mountains and hills along the coastline of more than 4-8 inches. Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties have 60% of rainfall of that magnitude, with a 30% chance of being in Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Additionally, rainfall could be extreme along the line of the powerful storm on January 9, 2023, forcing mass evacuation of Montecito and other communities, causing serious flooding, including five people It caused the death of a human driver. – Age boy – caught up in a flood in San Luis Obispo County.
“Undoubtedly, people need to prepare when this is the humidest time of our rainy season — since the fire began.”
“People need to be prepared for the worst case scenario,” Kittel said. There, heavy rain could send mud and debris sliding down the hills, covering the roads and possibly crashing into a home or other structure.
Animated infographics show that shard flow works
In Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County, the storm could begin on Tuesday night or Thursday evening, Kittel said. The highest threat is expected to be between Wednesday night and Thursday night.
“It’s true, if you’re in a vulnerable area around those burns, you can track the weather every day, see how projections tend to be, and what appears to be the most likely outcomes in the future. Please,” Kittel said. “I want the best and prepare for the worst.”
Between February 12th and February 14th, there is a 60% chance of heavy rainfall in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County, increasing the risk of debris flow and landslides.
(National Weather Service)
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County can see rainfall for more than 12-24 hours, with precipitation dropping at speeds of 0.5 inches to 1 inch or more per hour. Rainfall rates of over 0.5 inches per hour can lead to significant debris flows that pick up mud, rocks, branches and sometimes huge rocks, moving at speeds above 35 mph.
The rainfall rate in that range “usually leads to some flood concerns, especially in recent burn areas,” Kittel said. This includes the burn area of a 2024 lake fire that burned 38,664 acres in the Santa Barbara County Mountains north of Los Olivos.
Kittel said that if the rainfall rate approaches an inch per hour, it can cause flooding anywhere, especially on roads and small streams.
In extreme rainfall scenarios, there is a 20% chance of happening in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County, with forecasters saying that 4-8 inches of rain could fall on the coast and valleys.
“2 vs 4 [inches of rain] It definitely has problems, but 4-8 will be pretty extreme,” Kittel said. “And look back at some of the predictions that have led to some of the recent, rather extreme events over the past few years. If this unfolds, it’s very close and approaching January 9, 2023. We are considering the total.”
But the big difference is that Storm was one of a series of powerful systems that attacked California from late December 2022 to mid-January 2023. It’s much dry this season. – “Therefore, the impact will likely be less,” Kittel said.
In Los Angeles and Ventura counties, there is a 30% chance of heavy rain, plus a medium amount. The storm could arrive as early as Wednesday morning or Thursday night. The best threat times are Thursday morning to Friday morning, or Valentine’s Day.
Medium events can cause road flooding, but the risk of wreckage flow is still low, but it still exists, Kittel said.
Kittel said the heavy rainfall is a very “very high risk” that is very heavy, so the “very high risk” is becoming more intense.
The soil is not anchored by healthy vegetation, so recently burned areas are at risk of landslides in heavy rain. The heat from the fire makes it difficult for the soil to absorb water, and the ash tends to clog the soil, making it more likely that water will flow along the surface rather than descending.
The Hanford weather services office expects the storm to be strong in the San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra hills, which could affect travel along mountain paths in Kern County.
The storm is expected to be much weaker when it reaches San Diego and Orange Counties and the Inland Empire, and has a relatively moderate effect in the Sacramento Valley. Sierra Nevada can see more than two feet of snow, and the area around Lake Tahoe’s elevation has seen “the biggest snow event of the season this season,” according to the Reno Weather Service’s office.
The San Francisco Gulf region could have a moderate risk of flooding and tree damage between Wednesday and Friday, the Monterey Weather Service said.
The upcoming storm will follow heavier than expected rainfall from the system that left Southern California on Friday. Santa Monica received 1.26 inches of rain for the two-day period that ended Friday at 5pm. Beverly Hills, 1.46 inches. Porter Ranch, 1.53 inches. Alhambra, 1.64 inches; Downtown LA, 1.71 inches. East Pasadena, 2.07 inches. Malibu Hills, 2.5 inches. 3.32 inches of rain were seen in the mountains in LA County.
That, coupled with the rainfall leading up to Valentine’s Day, could be enough to help Southern California end “high fire season” and move to “low fire season,” Kittel said. It will be pretty small for the rest of the winter. ”
You need to talk to many agencies, including firefighters, before making that decision.
Downtown LA has received about two inches of rain since the start of the Wed Year on October 1st. The typical average at this point is – 7.93 inches, almost half the traditional wet season. The average annual average is 14.25 inches.
Meteorologists say the area needs 2-4 inches of rain before the fire season is over.
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