This week’s hype around the “kill the city” asteroid may have caused fear for many people before the shock odds fell to almost anything, but developed a risk scale for this type of event. MIT scientists said there is still a lot to know about the public.
Richard Binsel, an astronomer and professor of planetary science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the 2024 case study of a 130-300-foot asteroid named YR4 would serve as a learning experience.
Richard Binzel, a professor of planetary science at MIT, is part of a team working on a NASA mission to Pluton, posing for Earth in the solar system. (Suzanne Kreiter/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Binsel, who developed the Turin scale to measure the impact hazards of objects such as asteroids and comets, added that scientists know that more information changes in the projection of asteroids and comet paths . The detected earlier this month was up about 3.1% before falling to near zero. For reference, there is a possibility of 1% shock, which is often the standard for attracting the attention of scientists.
Images captured by the NASA-funded terrestrial shock last alert system in December 2024 showed that on December 22, 2032, there was a 1% chance that a 130-300-foot asteroid would hit Earth. It shows the route.
“We’re used to this. We understand how these probabilities work and how these uncertainties factors come and go in and out of calculations when they try to lock the trajectory.” said Biinsel, who created the headline that studied Pltune. “We’re used to seeing these odds bounce back and when they start to shrink, it’s so big in our favor that we can definitely say that we’ll miss.”
“Kill the City” The odds of asteroid hitting the Earth falling to near zero
As scientists’ tools become more powerful and accurate, the public should keep this in mind in the future, as they will more and more detect these previously unnoticed objects.
“These objects are there, they’re always there and now we’re looking at them,” he explained.
During the initial discovery of an asteroid or comet, scientists “look at just a small simultaneous orbit,” and they project that orbit, “it’s an object of interest passing through our neighborhood.” You try to see if it might be.
“If it’s off track to pass through our neighborhood years or decades later, there’s a number of uncertainties or probability associated with it. It’s going to be very close.”
And for objects that come near you, “We know in advance and can make careful decisions about what to do. It’s far better than being taken by surprise,” astronomers said. explained.
Therefore, if you are worried that “Armageddon” will become a reality and cause widespread devastation, you can be relieved to know that experts are not ruining the possibility.
“The thing I like to say is, ‘Unless I’m in the telescope I’m observing them, I won’t lose sleep about these objects,” he said.
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