A day after President Trump imposed a swept tariff on his three biggest trading partners, many California farmers who produce the country’s largest share of food were worried that the movement could undermine operations.
The province’s abundant fertile ground is the leading global supplier of agricultural products, and its farmers could be hit hard as Canada, Mexico and China retaliate with stealing US exports. Farmers also rely heavily on Canadian fertilizers.
“I’m worried that it could have an impact on the entire tomato industry,” said Bruce Rominger, who grows tomatoes along with other produce on a farm in Yolo County, Sacramento Valley.
Mexico and Canada each year at the end of the summer, jumping out the Central Valley millions and then canned, and are two of Roman tomato’s biggest customers. Farmers are worried that processors exporting canned tomatoes will either promote demand in those countries or face sudden retaliatory tariffs that will pressure growers to lower prices.
The Trump administration has levied a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican products and an additional 10% tariff on China.
Canada has promptly announced a series of tariffs on retaliatory US imports. China has also responded by announcing a 15% tariff on many US agricultural products, including cotton growing over thousands of acres in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Mexico said it would detail the tariffs on Sunday.
“Yeah, he can do damage to the Canadian economy,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a speech Tuesday.
Tariffs come as California farmers are already rattling by concerns that the massive deportation efforts Trump has promised during his campaign could destroy the ranks of low-wage farm workers who plant and harvest crops. Research shows that half of California farmers are not documented. The Trump administration also baffled farmers who suddenly released irrigation water from two dams earlier this year just before a rainy winter weekend, not when farmers didn’t need it, but who suddenly released irrigation water from two dams. More concerns have been raised in the Central Valley, where shootings and reductions are planned at the Burial Bureau, which operates water infrastructure, key to the agricultural centre.
Still, many farmers who supported Trump with a large margin in the 2024 election were either afraid of being seen as a criticism, or reluctant to speak openly about their concerns, as they hoped the administration would protect them as they had in the past.
“This is not an easy time [farmers]said Daniel Payarez Montoya, a researcher at the California Institute of Public Policy. “They face more pressure than they used to.”
From an economic standpoint, he said trade is supposed to increase the pie for everyone, but politics creates a lot of uncertainty.
The long, flat fields in the central valley, hidden between California coastal ranges and Sierra Nevada, can feel far from the world situation, but farmers up and down the state look closely, from almond orchards to zucchinis fields.
Shannon Douglas, president of California’s Agriculture Department, pointed out in a statement that state agriculture has been damaged by past trade wars. In the last Trump administration, retaliatory tariffs from China hit almond growers particularly hard, reducing the price per pound from $2.50 to $1.40.
California’s Department of Food and Agriculture reported that California farmers exported more than $22 billion in food in 2021, with almonds at the top of the list, followed by dairy, wine and pistachios.
“Although California farmers are the most productive in the world, the comprehensive imposition of broad tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China risks retaliation that could hurt the very farmers they are aiming to protect,” Douglas said.
She added that perishable crops, including strawberries, lettuce and dairy, “we face immediate dangers as trade disruptions can mean decades of earning corruption, economic losses and long-term losses in market share.
Almond exports fell quarterly in 2018 when they imposed the last tariffs on China “due to retaliatory obligations,” Douglas said. California’s almond industry is estimated at around $4.7 billion, with over 70% of nuts being exported, making it particularly vulnerable to tariffs.
“The California almond industry is closely monitoring US announcements of tariffs and potential responses from Canada, Mexico and China,” said Rick Cushman, a spokesman for the California Almond Commission, in a statement.
One study found that between April 2018 and April 2022, retaliatory tariffs cost almond farmers about $875 million.
“Our industry continues to support reducing barriers to trade and smooth market access for California’s almonds,” Cushman said.
Many farmers noted that during Trump’s first term, when China retaliated for tariffs with its own taxation, the federal government tried to create an entire farmer by providing subsidies. However, it is unclear whether the administration will do that again.
Daniel Sumner, a well-known professor of agricultural economics in Davis, California, said farmers can get multiple hits. They can be costly for fertilizer and fence posts. Some of this comes from Canada and also comes from retaliatory tariffs on exports. Canada buys 41% of bottled wine exported from California, he said.
Meanwhile, he said some producers may have higher profits. For example, beef producers who compete with Canadian cattle ranchers can have higher profits. But consumers will see higher prices at grocery stores for many products, he said.
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