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Home»LA Times

If Trump cuts Medicaid, this California Republican House seat would be in danger

By March 12, 2025 LA Times No Comments8 Mins Read
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Rep. David Baradao faced a winner decision last month. He lined up behind President Trump and voted for a budget resolution that almost certainly cut Medicaid funds and puts the rage of his members. Or vote against it, driving his party into chaos and setting himself up for the main enemy likely under Trump.

Baradao, a Republican dairy farmer from Hanford, chose his party.

In a speech on the House floor before the vote, Baradao admitted that he had “heard from countless members” advocating for continued support for the program.

“I don’t support the ultimate settlement bill that risks leaving them behind,” he said.

Valadao will speak at the 2022 press conference at the US Capitol. According to the UC Berkeley Labor Centre, residents of his Central Valley area, or about two-thirds of the population, are covered by Medi-Cal.

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images)

The vote for Baradao came early in the budget process, where Republicans would ultimately provide $2 trillion in savings. Assuming that all Democrats voted against the final spending plan, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can afford to lose just one Republican vote, as he did in the budget resolution.

Hometown, Baradao faces the difficult task of reassuring his members in the 22nd Congressional District, as Medicaid is known in California. Republican lawmakers Young Kim and Ken Calvert, who represent other swing districts in California, also voted for the budget resolution. However, Baradao faces a sudden battle. His Central Valley district, or more than half a million residents, about two-thirds of his population, are eligible for the program. This is mostly part of any district in California.

Already, Democrats are preparing to use the vote to exclude longtime lawmakers.

As a minority in both the House and Senate, Democrats have struggled to decide how to resist Trump and Republicans in Congress. The budget resolution vote, which is almost certainly cut to Medicaid, gave them something to do their job. House Majority Forward, the Progressive Political Action Committee, has begun running attack ads in 23 potential swing districts held by Republicans, including Baradao.

Valadao will be participating in the Buttonwillo Fall Farm Festival in October 2022.

(Irfan Khan/Los Angeles Times)

“David Baradao regrets betraying Central Valley families by voting for Medicaid to fund massive tax cuts for billionaires and large corporations,” Justin Chelmoll, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement.

Many Central Valley residents are in poor health. Kern County, one of the three counties that make up the district, has the highest diabetic mortality rate in the state with 1,241 deaths between 2020 and 2022.

Heart disease and cancer are the leading causes of death in nearby Kings County, with over a quarter of residents valuing their health as “fair” or “poor,” according to the county public health department. In Tulair County, health officials have also warned that budget cuts could force rural hospitals to close.

Kelly Kurtzer Reyes, a Bakersfield resident and co-founder of the Karndown syndrome network, has a working relationship with Baradao, who has supported their advocacy in the past, she said. In the district, more than 8,500 people rely on community service centres, which aims to help individuals with developmental disabilities.

“I know he wants to support us, I know he’s a good guy,” she said. “But the vote to advance the budget resolution was devastating to me. I wasn’t as scared as I am now.”

12-year-old Amelia Reyes is practicing gymnastics skills at Club 21 in Pasadena. As the Reyes family drives from Bakersfield, Amelia has access to the Learning and Resource Center for individuals with Down Syndrome.

(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)

Award recipients, including her 12-year-old daughter, Amelia, rely on state and federal health programs to fund services that allow them to learn skills and navigate the world, Kulzer-Reyes said. Amelia with Down Syndrome receives access to programs that help participants learn how to interact with others. Other families will obtain health care, such as annual physician appointments and dental checkups.

“These types of services can create or destroy families,” Kulzer-Reyes said. “If you don’t have access, they’re about changing lives and destroying lives.”

She believes in Varadao when she says he doesn’t support the program cuts. But she hopes he does more to stand up to his party.

“I want him to speak up. It must be tiring, but that’s the job he ran for,” she said. “This is about breaking his career or creating a situation now.”

Republican leaders defending the budget resolution emphasized that they did not explicitly mention Medicaid. Trump, who lobbyed to support certain Congressional Republicans with budget resolutions, says he doesn’t support Medicaid cuts.

However, the Congressional Budget Office, which provides nonpartisan budget analysis, reported that it is impossible for the Energy and Commercial Commission (which will be charged with a $880 billion cut) to find sufficient savings without touching on Medicaid, Medicare, or children’s health insurance programs.

Children with Down syndrome learn to socialize in Club 21 classes in Pasadena.

(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)

“Medicaid is the only place. It’s like a bank, where the money is,” said Mark Peterson, professor of public policy, political science, health policy and management at UCLA. He added Baradao: “He’s going to have problems.”

Budget blueprints have passed through various committees. Meanwhile, the Senate will take up a law passed by the House on Tuesday to avoid closures until September 30th to fund the government. Baradao voted for a temporary measure. [and] Protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid recipients from unnecessary disruption. ”

Faced with almost certainly an ugly backlash, he avoided holding a town hall in his district. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) has firmly announced that he will hold a Varadao meeting instead.

Our fight for the Health Advocacy Union organized the City Hall in Bakersfield last month before the budget vote, and invited Baradao, who said he could not attend. Local reports say the event featured many frustrated residents who rely on health care programs.

Joyce Hall, 80, had a sign outside the Bakersfield office in Baradao on a recent afternoon that read, “Healthcare for people, not for billionaires.” The retiree said she relies on Medi-Cal to cover her out-of-pocket and costs for prescription medication. Without that, she said she would have to resort to her family to cover the costs.

If Baradao votes to cut into the program, Hall said he hopes to lose his seat in Congress during the next election cycle.

Baradao, a rather mild Republican in the majority of Democrats, is cautious about making a statement. He avoids the media and rarely interviews. When approached by the reporter for this article, Valadao introduced his spokesman to a question.

Voting on pivotal health laws is a familiar territory for Baradao. In 2017 he voted along the party line, joined a Republican colleague, repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act. In that next election cycle, he lost to democratic challenger TJ Cox.

Varadao won a seat in 2020 and was able to stand in his seat until 2022, even after voting at Trump’s second round of blunder each trial to banish the president for inciting a rebellion in Capitol on January 6, 2022.

If Baradao supports the final budget to cut Medicaid, that could mean repeating his 2018 losses, said Matt Herdman, director of California Protect Our Care, a nonprofit advocate for increasing access to affordable healthcare. He said the district’s people were energized to protect them from Medicaid cuts.

“If David Baradao votes to cut Medicaid, causing his defeat in 2026 would be the only biggest issue,” predicted Hardman.

GOP strategist Kathy Abernathy disputed the assessment and said she didn’t think Baradao should be worried. District voters trust him to not cut Medicaid benefits as long as they go “greedy” in vain, and not to cut Medicaid benefits.

“To cut the size of this government and provide the services they still need, while not too expensive for workers, is something they trust Valadao,” Abernathy said.

Some, such as Cervantes in Germany, believe that Varadao will eventually stand up for his members who rely on Medicaid. With autism and an advocate for the autism community, Cervantes interns at Baradao’s office in 2014, where he met with House members to learn about the values.

Cervantes, 30, relies on Medi-Cal to cover the costs of programs that open the doors to travel and participate in programs such as Happy Trail, Equestrian Therapy Program and Volunteer Travel. He also covers his medical expenses, including annual physical examinations, dental checkups and new glasses.

His message to Baradao? Stand by his constituents and Medicaid.

“Hey David, when you’re in Washington, D.C., the only thing I encourage is to tell Congress not to cut down on Medicare and medical,” Cervantes said.

Gomez reported from Los Angeles and from Pinho from Washington.

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