President Donald Trump has run a second-term campaign, pledged to impose strict tariffs on imports from China, particularly those from China, creating jobs and imposing employment.
Dubbed “Tarrant Man” last fall, he told an audience at a Chicago economic club, “The most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs.” However, it is unclear whether he will be able to implement the harsh mutual tariffs that Trump announced on dozens of countries in April in his first months of office.
Now, 100 days after his second term, the economist told Fox News Digital that he believes these proposed mutual tariffs are politically motivated, unnecessary and unable to secure profits from the US trading partners Trump wanted.
China is “cave” to Trump’s trade strategy, expert signalling
President Donald Trump holds a “foreign trade barrier” document that will make a statement on tariffs at the Rose Garden in Washington, D.C. on April 2, 2025.
Instead, they warned that Trump’s tariffs could be crushed by billions of dollars in trade to a halt between the two biggest economies in the world, disrupting global supply chains and torpedoing the US economy into a massive slump or recession.
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers told Fox News Digital in an interview that when Trump took office, the chance of a recession was “probably about 10%.” “Now they’re about 55%.”
It is unclear whether Trump will continue to push these unpopular tariffs. In the short term, uncertainty and volatility remain.
The trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on March 28, 2025 amid President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
The impact of short-term tariffs
Trump announced tariffs on April 2nd, known as “liberation day.” The announcement included both a universal baseline tariff of 10%, and plans to enact large tariffs on dozens of other countries, including China.
These new import taxes quickly sent the stock market to freefall, causing one of the biggest daily S&P 500 losses since World War II, prompting deep and uncertain uncertainty about the possibility of a next move.
“The only thing that has pushed the chances of a recession so high and very quickly is the chaos that comes from the White House,” Wolfers said.
Trump then suspended mutual tariffs for 90 days, encouraging the administration to “trade” with trading countries and encourage more investment in US manufacturing. Still, some prices have already risen in anticipation of higher costs under the new tariff regime.
Uncertainty also plays a role. Trump’s tariff announcement in April prompted many large container ships to suddenly halt cargo to the US earlier this month, urging them to return to their former port. This means that price increases for everyday products will soon increase at certain big box retailers like Walmart and Target next month.
David H. Feldman, an economist and professor at William & Mary College, said in an interview that these price increases “will not show up tomorrow, but will be showing up over the next few months.
Trump’s ultimatum for federal workers: Return to work or end.”
President Donald Trump arrives at a presentation ceremony in Washington, DC on April 15, 2025 at the White House East Room (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Trump says tariffs will target foreign competitors and reduce the trade deficit, but the costs are primarily on workers and middle-class Americans who purchase the majority of their imports.
Wolfer said Trump’s focus on the “deficit” in trade was based on a general misconception.
“What that means is that we sell small quantities in China, and they sell us a large quantity,” he explained. But for all the dollar bills that go to China, the US has what Americans want to buy, like T-shirts.
“We have a dollar deficit, but we have a surplus.”
Possibility of Discalation
There are few indications that Trump’s tariffs will deliver the profits he is hoping for, including overseeing US production and ensuring better trade deals with Asian countries in particular.
Instead, experts warn that these countries are likely to avoid U.S. markets and supply chains over time.
“If these tariffs remain, there will be very few transactions between the US and China,” by the end of this year, Gary Clyde Huhbauer, a senior non-resident of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in an interview.
Approximately $650 billion is at risk in annual trade between the two countries, and in the long run it will have a knockdown effect on global commerce.
World leaders react when Trump re-enters the White House
President Donald Trump, left, Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Trump’s tariffs also abandon the decades of international understanding that depoliticized trade disputes, Feldman said.
The US is “moving from a system based at least on mutually acceptable rules of conduct to a system that does not have it as its anchor,” Feldman, whose research focuses on global trade policy, told Fox News Digital. This shift allows governments to target foreign countries individually and provide selective tariff relief to businesses and industries “when we make “bids.”
“America is now the master of shakedowns.”
President Donald Trump was gestured to media members before boarding the White House South Lawn in Washington on April 3, 2025, speaking the day after DC Trump announced new tariffs targeting goods imported into the US, including China, Japan and India. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Next Steps
After the market rebound, Trump appears to be warming to the idea of easing his proposed 145% mutual tariffs in China.
Economists say he’s likely to do so if the economy is sour or if the past is precedent, if he sees a significant drop in poll numbers.
Still, the path to discussion remains uncertain. Last week, China denied Trump’s claim that both countries were negotiating tariff contracts after he alleged in an interview that he had reached a “200 contract.”
The economist believes Trump will at least partially reduce tariffs by July, but he has warned that he is playing high stakes games that could be hit the hardest by our consumers and businesses.
“What I’m worried about is that the immediate impact of uncertainty is business investment in trade-exposed industries, leading to a recession,” Feldman said. “But it can get worse. It turns into financial panic. And everyone started saying, ‘Hey, if I had to go into money and cash, I can’t become a Treasury letter.” All bets are off when we move on a flight to cash. ”
If that happened, he said, “We could slip into 2008 again.”
Television Market News on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York on Friday, April 4, 2025 (Michael Naggle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump refused to admit that his early days were not a major success.
In a recent interview with Time Magazine, he touted his first 100 days as “very successful” and called “people people.” [are] He wrote that it was the best month, the best second month for the US president, and the best third month.
He dismissed stock market volatility and rising inflation as temporary “market fluctuations,” calling it a “transition period.”
Trump said he would do so when asked if he would consider it a victory if the tariffs remained 50% or 50% of the imports in the future.
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“A complete victory,” he said.
“Everyone will benefit.”
Breanne Deppisch is a national political reporter for Fox News Digital, covering the Trump administration, focusing on the Department of Justice, the FBI and other national news.
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