President Donald Trump is scheduled to sign his groundbreaking policy bill on Friday, a day after the House passed a meager tax and spending reduction package.
The signature will take place at the White House ceremony scheduled for 5pm on Independence Day.
The 887-page invoice includes long-standing GOP priorities such as spending cuts, tax cuts, military spending, money for deportation, and reductions in Medicaid and renewable energy programs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that under the bill, more than 11.8 million Americans will no longer be covered by insurance by 2034, with an additional 3 million people not eligible for food stamps.
Loyalty to Trump carries the day
According to Congress’ time standards, the bill moved at lightning speed. Within six months of his term he reached Trump’s desk. That was possible as Trump set a solid July 4 deadline and put pressure on Republican lawmakers to get it done.
Most of Trump’s Republican critics left or lost re-election over the years, so little resistance was found. Undoubtedly a loyal home and Senate Republicans have made his priorities quicker to their priorities.
Furthermore, GOP lawmakers know they suffer from political consequences on objections. North Carolina’s Tom Tillis suddenly announced on Sunday that he will be resigning next year, a day after saying he would oppose the law to cut his healthcare program.
“Tillis is not the actor, he is the speaker and the complainer,” Trump posted an X for Tillis.
Tillis joined Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Rand Paul of Kentucky, and voted against the Senate bill. In the House, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Thomas Massey of Kentucky were the only Republicans to vote against it.
Massie is also facing Trump’s rage. “Massie is weak, ineffective and will vote “no” for virtually everything that has been placed before him,” Trump posted last month.
Trifecta for victory
The passing of legislation was a direct growth in the sweeping of GOP elections, giving them the White House and majority in both the House and Senate. The so-called “three communication” of power only occurred frequently, and Republicans were judged not to waste.
Importantly, by retaining power in both houses of Congress, Republicans have given them the option of using budgetary procedures that will negate the Senate filibuster and pass legislation that has the majority only 51 votes. That meant that democratic support was not necessary and that they didn’t need to involve them in the process.
The parties have used budget procedures to pass Democrats who pass the Affordable Care Act under President Barack Obama in 2010, Republicans to pass tax cuts during Trump’s first term in 2017, and Republicans to pass President Joe Biden’s climate, health and tax packages.
Thune and Johnson get it done for Trump
This bill is R-La. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator majority leader John Toon (the main test of both Rs.D.), both had a very narrow majority to show Trump that his law could be passed.
The two initially opposed how to move forward. Johnson wanted one bill and Thune wanted two, but ultimately he worked with Trump to push the bill through each of his difficult steps and earned plenty of votes.
Anything you need to get a vote
When Trump put pressure on the GOP leaders for a big win on July 4th, he seemed almost flexible when it came to what was actually in the bill. So Johnson and Tune worked to get votes by listening to members throughout the ideological spectrum and adjusting the law as needed to make sure they had almost all Republicans onboard.
To get that much of its support, leaders packed personal priorities into the bill for some of their most skeptical members. House Republicans in New York have achieved higher caps on state and local tax credits. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley has won years of money for those affected by nuclear development and testing. Alaska Sen. Lisa Markowski has won several provisions to support the vast state, including Medicaid and food stamp carve out.
Murkowski was her last holdout in the Senate, and Thune moved the votes within hours of her commitment to supporting it.
“Failure is not an option,” he said a month ago. “We need to reach 51.”
Democrats make a big bet on disapproval
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y. and House Democrat leader Hakeem Jeffries (DN.Y.), steady opposition to the law and believes Medicaid and food stamp cuts will win a new seat, and perhaps a majority, next year’s mid-term elections.
“This vote will plague Republican colleagues for years to come,” Schumer said after the Senate passed the bill. “Ten millions of people will lose their health insurance due to this bill. Millions of jobs will disappear. People will get sick and die.”
Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz posted on X on Wednesday evening that if the bill passes, “it’s perfectly possible to win the Senate.”
“I hope this bill dies, but if it passes, they will pay a sudden political price,” writes Schatz.
Delay, delay, delay
Without the authority to stop the bill, Democrats accepted the power they had and forced long delays as Republicans approached passing.
Jeffries tied the floors of the house for almost nine hours when Republicans secured their votes, delayed big wins on the July 4 holiday and delayed big wins on the July 4 holiday, and delayed their big wins on the July 4 holiday, in a speech that shared stories of those affected by Medicaid and other programs cuts. “This isn’t us,” Jeffries said.
Schumer also delayed passing the Senate, forcing Senate clerks to read the entire 887-page bill. This is a step in the process where a leader agrees to skip normally. It took almost 16 hours.
The debt cap battle has been avoided
One big win for Republicans is that the bill will increase the country’s debt limit by $5 trillion and allow it to pay bills that have already won ongoing borrowings. By adding that provision, Republicans avoided taking the risk of US defaults and not having to pass debt restrictions separately.
The last time Congress raised debt restrictions was in 2023, after weeks of high line negotiations between the Republican House, Democrat Senators and President Biden.
Start with no and finish with yes
Many Republicans were deeply concerned about the bill. Anyway, almost all of them voted for it.
Hawley and Murkowski strongly criticized Medicaid cuts, but voted for the law if some of the state’s priorities were added. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson once called the law “immoral” and “grotesque,” but he argued that it caused a deficit. But he voted for it.
The New York state lawmakers fought by stuffing the state cap and local tax credit into a quadruple of $40,000 on a bill that would pass the House, and were unhappy when the Senate went with it for five years instead of 10. But in the end, they embraced the change.
“I can’t go away with that,” said Rep. Nick Larota, Rn.Y. But he was when Roll was called.
“John McCain’s Moment”
The late Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) famously killed Trump’s attempt to abolish Obamacare when he won the winning vote with his thumb in 2017.
Like McCain, Murkovsky, who voted against Republican healthcare efforts in 2017, was the only undecided senator left in the final hours before the Senate vote. But she ultimately supported it. This is a decision she called “pain.”
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