We don’t think too much of a thought about our nation and nation failing the highly immigrant communities we want to protect, despite Californians protesting the crude and often brutal deportation tactics employed by President Trump’s ice and homeland security agents.
In the past, particularly in the last century, the US economy and California have grown rapidly, with immigration reaching a roughly fulfilling and important needs, and over time many have moved many migrants to an increasingly diverse middle class. But now the newcomers are stuck. Immigration accounts for almost a quarter of the US population in poverty from 14% 30 years ago, according to new findings from researchers at USC and the University of California.
The immigrant poverty rate is fluctuating, but has been increasing in recent years, especially since the pandemic. In 2024, 22.4% of all immigrants and 28.4% of non-citizen immigrants, including undocumented people, were poor, at the highest rate since 2008.
Similarly, welfare dependence is more pronounced among migrants than among native-born people. A 2023 analysis of census data showed 54% of households led by one or more undocumented welfare programs, compared to 39% of households born in the US.
In California, the overall situation is slightly better. A 2023 report from the California Institute of Public Policy Research put the poverty rate of 17.6% for all foreign-born residents, compared to 11.5% of those born here. However, for fraudulent immigrants, the rate was even higher than the national figure: 29.6%. The undocumented household said it consistently had the lowest household income in LA, compared to $75,000 of all Angelenos in 2024.
The harsh statistics reflect a decline in California’s blue-collar industry in the 1980s, traditionally providing upward mobility for immigrants. Unionization in the hospitality industry, which is immigrant, has helped to unlock some families, but these benefits could lead to less work as employers try to keep costs down by potentially automating some services. And immigration itself, especially mass immigration, puts downward pressure on the many jobs newcomers meet. For example, agriculture, construction, etc.
The lack of employment to support families has moved towards what California, Texas-based historian and author Michael Lind described as a “low-wage/high welfare model.”
The financial impact is severe. The president has signed an executive order denying federal funds to the sanctuary city. This is funding to support urban and state budgets for police, education and many other services affected by immigration. Trump will certainly try again, but those orders have been blocked by court. At the same time, the budget that the president signed into law on July 4th will boost funds for border enforcement, but even those who are legally here will cut down on non-citizen health services and more.
This causes certain distress in deep blue conditions. California’s current budget shortage has forced Trump’s “resistance” leader Gavin Newsom to scale back health care for undocumented people who are also occurring in other progressive hotbeds such as Washington, Illinois and Minnesota.
The simple truth is that a low-wage/high welfare economy relying on illegal immigration is not sustainable. Economic realities suggest that there is a need for common sense policies to limit new migration and focus on policies that allow current immigration, especially those deeply embedded in our communities and those with useful skills, to enjoy the success of previous generations.
What do common sense policies look like? It will further shift to secure the borders the Trump administration has already made, to move immigration priorities away from family reunions, and to attract people who can contribute to an increasingly complex economy. Deportation should prioritize convicted criminals and criminal gang members, whose existence is barely welcomed by most immigrants.
Law-abiding immigrants here without permission should be provided with the opportunity to register in ticket homes or legal positions based on clean records, taxes and stable employment. Additionally, there is a need to consider a new Bracero program that allows guest workers to legally come to the United States without family in the mid-20th century. Even President Trump is forced to acknowledge that it is difficult to replace low-wage migrant workers in some sectors.
This type of immigration reform has been spared Congress for decades, but a clear eye assessment shows that simply welcoming newcomer Willie Lilly is not rewarding for most immigrants and California. A large pool of undocumented labor is the exact opposite of what is needed to nurture a strong and sustainable economy. If you are protesting ice attacks and immigration bashings, you should also protest to remake US immigrants according to the economic foundation. We should all be able to take advantage of the prospects of a better life.
Joel Cotkin is a presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University and a senior researcher at the University of Texas Civitas Institute in Austin.
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