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The European Union’s first defense committee issued a harsh warning. The world’s “most dangerous moments” could soon arrive in 2027, when Russia and China coordinate offensive moves designed to overwhelm Western defenses.
EU defence and space secretary Andrius Kubilius reiterated the recent remarks of General Alexus Grynkewich, the top commander of NATO air operations. Both authorities highlighted 2027 as a year of potential flashpoints where simultaneous military operations by Moscow and Beijing could extend the Trans-Atlantic Alliance to its limits.
“The most dangerous moment could be in 2027, where both Russia and China do these offensive moves in a coordinated way,” Kubilius told reporters at a briefing in Washington.
Grynkewich warned last week that the US and its European allies must be ready to fight two wars at the same time. One in Europe, one escalates in Ukraine or Eastern Europe, and another in the Pacific if another President Xi Jinping launches an invasion of Taiwan.
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EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said, “The most dangerous moments are in 2027 when both Russia and China do these aggressive moves in a coordinated way.” (Reuters/Juan Medina)
“We’ll need as many kits, equipment and ammunition as we can to beat that,” Glinkewitch said.
In a speech after Monday evening, Kubilius said the US had “right and reason” to focus on China.
“We recognize that you, Americans, have real rights and reasons for the long-term perspective that will begin to shift more and more towards the Indo-Pacific to mitigate China’s military power,” he said.
“We Europeans need to improve our defensive capabilities,” the former Lithuanian prime minister said. “That’s what we do,” he added.
Their warning coincides with growing concerns across US defense facilities regarding what is often referred to as “Davidson’s windows.” This is a term coined in 2021 by former Indo-Pacific commander Philip Davidson, who testified before Congress that China could attempt to reunite Taiwan by 2027.
The US is expected to quickly reduce its power stance in Europe and bring more attention to the Indo-Pacific. (Photo of the US Air Force by Airman 1st Class Edgar Grimaldo)
The 2027 window has increased urgency to accelerate the military modernization programme quickly, as Xi Jinping aims to achieve what was called “world-class” combat capabilities in 2027 by the People’s Liberation Army 100th anniversary. Strategic pressure on two fronts at the same time.
Kubilius traveled to Washington to assess the potential shortage of Europe’s defensive capabilities as the US is increasingly pivoting its strategic attention to the Indo-Pacific. He said EU countries are actively preparing to prepare for a change in the attitudes of the US military on the continent.
As of 2025, more than 80,000 US troops were stationed in Europe. This is a widely expected presence to decline in the coming years as the Pentagon pushes its European allies and holds more responsibility for their own defense.
“We’re ready to take responsibility for the shoulder,” Kubilius said. “I don’t know what Americans will decide.”
Kubilius emphasized that Europe must not only fund its own defense, but also build it. He said the EU hopes to reduce US reliance on arms from 60% to 40% of total imports and further reduce its dependence through increased domestic production.
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Last month, Summit’s NATO leader in Washington agreed to increase defense spending. This increases from 2% to 5% of the GDP of Member States. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)
As Secretary of Defense, Kubilius is tasked with implementing a $840 billion framework to “reregister Europe.” This includes 150 billion euro loan facilities available to Member States to build military and industrial capacity.
Separately, last month’s NATO leader at Summit in Washington agreed to a promotional pledge to increase defense spending. This is a historic change in alliance stance amid increasing global instability, with the benchmark increasing from 2% to 5% of member countries’ GDP.
In addition to the sense of urgency, President Donald Trump has announced that the US will provide Ukraine with an advanced weapons system. The Western Defense Minister was convened on Monday to discuss the proposed funding mechanism.
“We intend to send patriots to NATO, and NATO will distribute them,” Trump last week mentioned the high-value air defense system that Kiev has long been seeking.
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Kvilius refused to elaborate on the possibility that other weapons could be included in the package, but emphasized the important importance of maintaining unwavering support for Ukrainian defense against a full-scale Russian invasion.
“China is watching,” he said. “China could conclude that if the West is weak in Ukraine, they could expect aggressive actions from China against anyone.”
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