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Tariffs and trade wars have distracted themselves from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and have been dominating the news agenda for months. Both countries are in conflict with the West as Russia faces the threat of “very harsh” US sanctions. Meanwhile, Ukraine has alienated some European partners due to recent government remodeling and reforms. Mikhail Krimenchiev | AFP | Getty Images
US President Donald Trump (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a speech during a bystander meeting at the G20 Summit held in Hamburg, Germany on July 7, 2017
In difficult times, and with the trade war dominating the news agenda, it is easy to forget that Russian and Ukrainian soldiers continue to fight for every inch of Ukraine’s frontline territory.
The conflict in Gaza, the ongoing economic uncertainty in the US and Europe, and the changing geopolitical landscape have been strengthened, and the “axis of the axis” is also at the forefront of the minds of global policymakers, pushing the agenda down by pushing more than three and a half years of war in Ukraine.
Both Russia and Ukraine appear to be left in the cold, and even this week’s talk in Istanbul has received little mention in the media, with team negotiations from both sides. As things stand, there is an atmosphere of uncertainty regarding the direction of war and the outlook for peace.
Trump seemed to have lost his patience when he said on July 14 that Ukraine could receive more US-made weapons – as long as their NATO allies paid them – and gave Russia a 50-day deadline to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. If they did not, he said Russia would face up to 100% “very harsh” sanctions and “secondary” tariffs.
These could brutally hit the remaining trading partners, including Russia and China, including other goods that buy Russian oil and gas.
Russian Wild Cards
As things stand, Russia must show that it is serious about ceasefire and peace plans until September 2nd.
Analysts are skeptical that more sanctions threats will lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin coming to the negotiation table in good faith.
Mykola Biliskov, a research fellow at the Ukraine National Institute of Strategic Studies, said there is a spread between Trump’s demands on the peace agreement and further sanctions.
“The Kremlin is generally banking in the fact that under Trump, the US cannot provide a systematic policy of supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia,” Biliskov told NBC News in early July.
Kevin Lamarck | Reuters
File photo: President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 Leader Summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28, 2019.
“Serious secondary sanctions require a willingness to argue with China and India to buy raw materials from Russia,” he pointed out.
“Similarly, when it comes to weapons, the speed and volume of supply here is important. So there is a lot of known and unknown. And I think Russia believes that the US does not dare to impose secondary sanctions on its Russian trading partner,” he added.
Ukraine is at the mercy of large-scale US and Europe when it comes to arms supply, and in recent months, along with Trump, has shown an eagerness to negotiate a ceasefire with unanswered Russia.
It also shows a willingness to compromise when it is given to the country something like the “Holy Grail” in handing over Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to Moscow: NATO membership.
libkos | Getty Images News | Getty Images
This aerial view shows ruins of a building that was destroyed in Chashiv Yar at dawn in Chashiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on July 24, 2025.
However, there was little indication that Russia was willing to embrace Ukrainian Western-style security guarantees in all ways, making small but progressive profits on the battlefield due to its drafted talent and the power of intense drone warfare.
Touring Ukraine
Aggravating the Kyiv issue has led to increased anxiety at the domestic level, with concerns over the ongoing martial law, lack of elections and Zelenskyy’s wartime leadership.
Last week in Kiev, protests erupted amid a backlash against a government move to limit the independence of the two anti-corruption agencies. Top EU politicians expressed surprise at the transition to outlet politico, saying they showed a lack of commitment to pursuing democratic values in Europe. Fighting endemic corruption in Ukraine is seen as a prerequisite for Kyiv’s coveted accession.
Global Images Ukraine | Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images
The protesters are holding placards during a rally against laws restricting the independence of anti-corruption agencies on July 23, 2025 in Kiev, Ukraine.
The government’s remodeling in mid-July promoted accusations that Zelensky was focusing on power among his loyalists.
According to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russian Eurasia Centre and founder of political analytics firm R. Politik, Ukraine is “into an important stage of internal integration amid growing external uncertainty.”
“The latest battlefield development coincides with the new American stance. Donald Trump has stepped back operationally, choosing tactical delays over decisive involvement,” she commented in an email this week.
“Kiev, meanwhile, is using this interlude to internally recalibrate. The recent restructuring of government emphasizes its intention to strengthen the political control of the Zelensky administration and maintain unity in the face of pessimism, institutional inertia and acute labor crisis,” she added.
Despite growing Western uncertainty over Ukraine’s domestic trajectory, Stanovaya said, “International support is becoming more and more traded, primarily directed at maintaining the frontline, rather than moving forward with democratic reform.”
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