For months, candidates in the race to become California’s next governor were waiting for a pivotal question to be resolved. Will former Vice President Kamala Harris run?
The announcement that Harris’ announcement this week has been raised new questions. Who is the front runner now?
Because of Harris’ star power, the answer is far from simple. Other candidates have seen campaign planning and fundraising for months undercut by the likelihood that she will run. That is, after Harris announced on Wednesday, the race got a big reset after a few seconds.
Some political observers nod to former US Congressman Katie Porter, who appears to have their small feet raised above their enemies.
When Harris was not included on the scene, Porter was the only Democrat who received double digit support in multiple polls.
Porter, a staggering fundraiser while she was on the council representing the Orange County area, reported strong cash injections in the months since launching the campaign in March, raising $250,000 in 36 hours after Harris’ announcement.
Katie Porter, a lawyer who represented the US from California from 2019 to 2025, will speak at the Women’s Caucus at the California Democratic Conference held at Anaheim Hilton and the Convention Center in May.
(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)
“The enthusiasm from all levels of donors shows that Californians know how important this race is,” Porter told email blast.
Other candidates, including Biden administration’s U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary and former California Attorney General Xavier Beterra, also tried to argue that Harris was leaving.
“The Momentum of the Bekra Campaign Building Momentum in the ‘Wide Open’ Races” read the subject of an email sent Friday from the Becerra Campaign and said it was “suitable to unite a wide range of voters on plans to make healthcare and housing cheaper and more accessible.”
Xavier Becerra is a lawyer and former U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and will speak at the Labor Caucus at the California Democratic Conference held at Anaheim Hilton and the Convention Center in May.
(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)
However, outside observers said none of the candidates really stand out at this point.
“The rest of these candidates are shaking for the right to brag about who is a front runner. That’s something to be expected, but it’s ridiculous,” said Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist who has worked on many past governoral campaigns, including former Governor Governor Gary Davis.
“If Harris is opting out, there will probably be no clear frontrunners for quite some time for the rest of the current field,” South said. “None of these candidates start with statewide name recognition.”
Experts said that in such a wide range of areas, it is important to watch factors such as approval and communication strategies. So is the ability of candidates to raise funds and use them to expand their appeal.
“I’m starting to spend money on social media, TV ads, all the platforms I found to build name IDs,” South said, but “at this time I don’t have enough money to do that.”
Experience and support
Does Harris come out and she endorses someone else?
“If she clearly supports it, that would be a huge plus,” said John Pitney, a political professor at Claremont McKenna University, for the candidate she gathered behind.
Harris has a long relationship with some of the race’s candidates. A source familiar with her thinking told the era after bowing his head that Harris was still considering whether or not to approach the governor’s race.
Other support could also affect the race. Hours after Harris announced her decision, influential former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), appeared on CNN and supported long-time acquaintances, Lt. Colonel Eleni Kounalakis.
“I have a lot of great candidates, especially Eleni Tsakopoulos, which I support,” Pelosi said.
California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kunarakis will speak at the Women’s Caucus at the California Democratic Conference held at Anaheim Hilton and the Convention Center in May.
(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)
Kounalakis’ father, wealthy developer Angelo Tsakopoulos, supported the bankroll of the independent spending committee, which supports his daughter’s 2018 Lieutenant Governor’s campaign. The political observer is watching whether he will throw money into similar efforts to support her governor’s campaign.
Pitney said she still said Pelosi’s opinion would be “heavyer.” He said it “doesn’t necessarily shake up a large portion of voters,” but it could be important if it shakes Bay Area donors.
Former GOP legislative aides and Nationalist staff, who abandoned their Republican membership on the night Trump was elected in 2016, said support is far from a determinant of today’s political landscape.
“It’s often like the New York City mum ticks that people seem to come out of nowhere, so everyone is bastards to rule out,” he said.
Pitney added that his experience in government and administrative leadership is also important, but that many voters could cut back on candidates when they are irritated and want something new.
Antonio Villaraigoza will speak to the Latin Caucus at the California Democratic Treaty held at the Anaheim Convention Center in May.
(Carlin Steel/Los Angeles Times)
For example, Antonio Villaraigoza, former state assembly president and Lamaior in the ’70s, said “it clearly has a long history, but that long history is an advantage and a disadvantage,” Pitney said.
Villaraigosa says his campaign is “about the future.” But voters “may not consider him a fresh face,” Pitney said.
Name recognition and money
None of the current candidates for governor have the same profile as Harris. In fact, they are not well known to the huge belts of voters.
That means they’re cutting their work for them, Pittney and South said – i.e. from a fundraising perspective.
South said, “There’s no doubt that the Democratic donor base is basically sitting on a hunter waiting for what Harris is trying to do.”
However, he said he hasn’t seen any indications that the donor has chosen his favorite candidate now that she is out. This is a problem for candidates with little or no name recognition.
“These candidates in the rest of the sector, those who have Harris out, don’t have enough money in the bank to run a statewide campaign,” he said.
South said that if Kunarakis injects another massive amount of cash from her father and again causes her personal wealth, it could change.
At the same time, South said, especially when Kounalakis’ opponents were attacked as being offensive.
“We weren’t inclined to choose people who would choose money to buy the governor’s race,” he said.
South said he’s watching Big Bay Area donors see if they’ve decided to back up Porter.
Los Angeles developer and mayoral candidate for 2022 Rick Caruso “can be a strength” if he were to race, Pitney said.
Donation Report
The latest funding report scheduled for Thursday night highlighted the candidate’s financial resources, but until the end of June, Harris dropped out.
Democrats who are not likely to self-fund the campaign reported they had millions of dollars in cash on hand as of June 30th.
Former legislative leader Toni Atkins reported that he has $4.3 million in the campaign, raising $648,000 and spending $549,000 in the first six months of the year.
Governor candidate Toni Atkins speaks with supporters of the California Democratic Treaty held at the Anaheim Convention Center in May.
(Carlin Steel/Los Angeles Times)
Villaraigosa raised $1.1 million, spending $550,000 this year, but reported $3.3 million in cash on hand based on funding he made last year.
Becerra raised $2.5 million and after spending $449,000 in the first six months of the year, it won $2.1 million in the bank.
Porter reported that he raised $2.5 million and spent $449,000 since launching the campaign in March. She said she has $2.1 million in the bank.
Unlike the other candidates, Porter’s campaign revealed her fundraising. Because submitting it to the state disclosure website didn’t show the dollar figures.
Spokesman Nathan Crick said her number of donors of a few dollars had crashed the state system and was working with state officials to work on the Secretary of State’s website on Friday. He said most of Porter’s 34,000 donors each contributed less than $200.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco reported that he raised $1.6 million this year, spending $609,000 and leaving the bank with $1 million.
A small number of candidates reported mediocre funding numbers, but have the personal wealth they can withdraw.
Kounalakis rose slightly to $100,000, spending nearly tripled in the first half of this year. She has over $4.6 million on hand and has millions more in her lieutenant governor campaign account, but she cannot transfer some of that money due to campaign finance rules.
Stephen J. Crubeck, a Democrat in Los Angeles, raised about $160,000 and spent $1.5 million. He had around $729,000 on hand at the end of the period. He also said he made a $10 million donation on Friday when he said he had “turbocharged” his campaign.
Philanthropist and businessman Stephen Crubeck will be taking photos with supporters after talking about his candidacy for California governor during the Labor Caucus at the California Democratic Conference held at Anaheim Hilton and the Convention Center in May.
(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)
“One of my many benefits is that I am not a politician and I am not a compromise,” Crubeck said.
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican candidate, raised about $1.5 million, of which $200,000 was a personal loan. Hilton spends around $1 million and is less than $800,000 at the bank.
At the bottom of the fundraising was former state controller Betty Yi. Betty Yi raised almost $238,000, spent $255,000 and had $637,000 on hand. Also, state school principal Tony Thurmond, who raised about $70,000, spent about $180,000 and got nearly $560,000.
Both Yee and Thurmond told the Times last month that funding was slower while the Democratic donor waited for a decision to make at Harris.
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