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With just two days left until Election Day, a new poll shows Los Angeles Township in 10th place. Atty. In the race for the incumbent seat, George Gascón is narrowly leading challenger Nathan Hockman.
However, Gascón is still trailing by 25 points in a highly anticipated game. That’s an improvement over the 30-point lead he faced in the same poll on Oct. 8, but still no worse than the 25-point lead he faced in the Aug. 18 poll.
If the election were held today, 50% of voters would vote for Mr. Hochman, a former federal prosecutor, and 25% would vote for Mr. Gascón, a former LAPD deputy chief who took office in 2020 on a progressive criminal justice platform. would vote for. reform. A poll of 1,205 likely Los Angeles County voters by the Institute of Government at the University of California, Berkeley, co-sponsored by the Times, found that 25% were undecided.
This poll comes near the end of a period of intense political politics by both candidates and their supporters. Since the last Berkeley and Los Angeles Times poll results were released Oct. 8, Gascón and Hochman have held a series of campaign events in the county, addressing hundreds of voters and making controversial comments. They faced each other in a heated debate.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, conducted online in English and Spanish from Oct. 22 to 29, said the narrowing of the gap between Gascón and Hochman gives the incumbent great hope. He said it was not a thing.
“It’s actually not that big of a change. Voters are staying pretty much the same as before, with a quarter not really paying attention,” he said.
Negative opinion of Hockman has increased slightly since last month’s poll, and DiCamillo attributes this in part to Hockman’s “scarlet letter” as a former Republican from deep-blue Los Angeles County. His unpopularity still pales in comparison to the bad mood voters are feeling. Gascon. 49% of likely voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Gascon, compared to Hochman, a former assistant U.S. attorney and former chair of the Los Angeles City Ethics Commission. was only 15%.
“It’s primarily a vote for Gascón,” DiCamillo said. “Mr. Hochman is the other candidate in this race and is in the fortunate position of running against an unpopular incumbent.”
Approximately 70% of Gascón voters say their party affiliation influenced their decision, and given Democrats’ significant advantage in voter registration in Los Angeles County, undecided voters are There is a possibility that this will trickle down to the current position.
Hochman is running as an independent and has sought to distance himself from his previous Republican affiliation, saying he plans to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in this year’s presidential election.
Jamara Hayner, Gascon’s chief campaign strategist, said the shrinking deficit is a sign that the campaign’s ground campaign is having an impact on the race.
“When I speak to voters, I hear serious concerns about Mr. Hochman’s history with the Republican Party and the potential for him to roll back progress on issues such as police accountability and wrongful convictions,” he said in a statement. ” he said. “So every phone call and every door knock is important as we get to the call.”
Hochman countered that polls still showed voters were dissatisfied with Gascón. Gascón, a former two-term congressman from San Francisco, is facing multiple lawsuits from his own staff in Los Angeles over the implementation of his policies. He is also being forced to confront the perception that crime is on the rise, even as he points to statistics that show a decline in some categories.
“Los Angeles County residents are tired of crime and look forward to new leadership in the DA’s office,” Hochman said in a statement. “I appreciate that voters want prosecutors like me, with 34 years of criminal justice experience, who make decisions based solely on facts and the law, not personal political agendas.”
When asked about a list of factors in the DA’s race, 54% of voters selected “the ability to prosecute cases involving violent crimes” as influencing their decision. 48% cited “criminal justice system reform.”
But that hasn’t translated into the same level of support for the incumbent, who Hochman has repeatedly accused of being soft on crime. Gascón countered by claiming Hochman wanted to return to mass incarceration and roll back police reform and accountability.
Asked if there was any reason to be hopeful about Gascón on election day, Mr. DiCamillo said: “I would say no, unless the polling world turns upside down.”
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