Republicans regained control of the White House and the Senate. All eyes are now on the House of Commons. Democrats see the House as their last line of defense against President-elect Donald Trump and his policies.
The fight for the majority involves high stakes.
Will Mr. Trump be able to leverage the Republican trifecta that is expected to support his policies and demands? Or will he face a Democratic-run House that uses subpoena power to check his legislative policies and investigate his administration?
NBC News has not yet predicted which party will control the House in 2025 because many races have not yet been called. But given Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, House Republicans are becoming bullish about their chances of retaining their slim majority.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) predicted in a statement from West Palm Beach, Florida, where he was spending time with Trump and others, that he and his party would retain power in the House.
“House Republicans have succeeded in securing important reversals in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, while our nation’s veteran incumbents have secured reelection across the country,” Johnson said in a statement. said. “The latest data and trends show that even in the face of a map of 18 seats won by Biden, Republicans will maintain a majority when all votes are counted.”
Congressional Democrats are processing Trump’s victory relatively quietly, but they have no intention of throwing in the towel. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York sounded optimistic Wednesday afternoon, pointing to some bright spots. He said Democrats are targeting vacant seats in Virginia and Michigan, redistricting wins in Alabama and Louisiana, and four Republican seats in New York.
“The House remains highly functional,” Jeffries said in a statement. “The path to regaining the majority currently runs through Arizona, Oregon, Iowa, and several Democratic-leaning districts in Southern California and the Central Valley where the election is too close to call. The party that will have a majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has not yet been determined. We must count every vote.”
House Democrats will hold a virtual meeting for members only on Thursday to discuss the election results and next steps, according to an invitation shared with NBC News.
a different kind of battlefield
Which party controls the House will have a major impact on the second Trump administration.
“It’s the difference between a Republican rubber stamp and some oversight and legislative policy checks on the Trump administration,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of the progressive activist group Indivisible.
Rep. Brendan Boyle, a Pennsylvania Democrat, said it was “déjà vu all over again.”
“I was in the House of Representatives when Trump first became president, so I know what it’s like,” Boyle said. “Trump is nothing short of a crazy mess. Every day, President Trump cares about one thing after another. In the morning he fires one of his staffers with a tweet, and in the afternoon he’s trying to buy Greenland. So , it is incumbent upon House Democrats to remain as strong and united as ever, whether in the majority or in the minority.”
The House battleground is different from the terrain that defined the presidency and control of the Senate for Republicans, largely through the suburbs that Democrats have resisted in the disastrous 2024 Republican elections. This is because there is. Harris lost support from Latino voters and young men, but gained support from white women, college graduates and older voters.
With Republicans holding a paper-thin majority of 220-212, Democrats needed a net gain of just four seats to regain control of the House they lost just two years ago. But so far, both parties have achieved important victories through redistricting and toppling incumbents, keeping Republicans in control for the time being.
In New York, the Democrat won the seat by defeating freshman Republican Congressman Brandon Williams, who represents the Syracuse area. Also, Republican Rep. Mark Molinaro, another first-term lawmaker from the Empire State, was chasing Democrat Josh Riley with 94% of the votes counted, but NBC News has not yet announced his race. .
Meanwhile, early Wednesday morning, Republicans defeated two weak Democratic incumbents in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state won by Trump. Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan unseated six-term U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District in northeastern Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2020. In the neighboring 7th District, Republican state Rep. Ryan McKenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan Wilde, who flipped a Republican seat. in the 2018 special election.
The Wild acknowledged the race in a statement, congratulating their opponents and saying: “No frills. Very disappointing result.”
Republicans also flipped an open seat in Michigan’s 7th District after Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin decided to run for the Senate.
Other races were too close to call. In Alaska’s large district, Republican Nick Begich III held a several-point lead over Democratic Representative Mary Peltola with about 70% of the vote. In Arizona, vulnerable Republican Rep. Juan Siscomani narrowly edged out Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel with about 60 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. David Schweikert counted, although he had a slight lead over Democrat Amish Shah with more than 60% of the vote.
In Nebraska, moderate Republican Rep. Don Bacon appeared to be seeking re-election despite being the Democratic front-runner.
California is notoriously slow to count votes, so some of the state’s six competitive races, which are crucial to which party wins the House majority, could take days. expensive. But as of early Wednesday afternoon, all five Republican incumbents whose races were rated “close” by Cook Political Report were leading their Democratic challengers.
In the Golden State’s 13th Congressional District, Republican Rep. John Duarte won about half of the votes, leading Democratic Rep. Adam Gray. In the Central Valley’s 22nd Congressional District, Republican Rep. David Valadao held a 10-point lead over Democratic Rep. Rudy Salas. Just over half of the votes were cast. In the 27th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia narrowly defeated Democrat George Whiteside with 65% of the vote. In the 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steele had a 5-point lead over Democrat Derek Tran, receiving more than 60% of the vote. And in the 41st District, longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert edged out Democrat Will. Mr. Rollins, 60% of votes counted.
In another hotly contested race in California, NBC News reported Wednesday that Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley defeated Democrat Jessica Morse.
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