(NEXSTAR) – The United States could still experience an Ala Niña winter, the Climate Prediction Center said in its latest forecast Thursday.
The center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said the phenomenon was likely to form between now and December and last into early 2025.
The effects of La Niña events typically reach their greatest strength in the winter, when they bring wet, cool weather to the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley. The southern half of the United States, on the other hand, tends to be warmer and drier.
And while El Niño often suppresses snowfall in most parts of the United States, La Niña is very different.
This winter may be more unpredictable than in recent years. The reason is as follows
NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto recently reviewed snowfall trends during La Niña winters and found that the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains tend to have a “banner year” for snow. Di Liberto said La Niña patterns also tend to bring above-average snow to the Great Lakes region and parts of New England.
Areas with high average snowfall during La Niña winters are shaded blue on the map below, and areas with low snowfall are shaded brown.
This map shows snowfall trends for 22 La Niña winters from 1959 to 2024. (Map provided by Climate.gov)
As you can see in the map above, the opposite is true in the mountainous regions of the West and Appalachia. A La Niña event could bring more precipitation to the Ohio Valley, but it would also increase temperatures in the region, making rain more likely than snow. NOAA’s winter forecast appears to confirm that will be the case again this year, with the region expected to experience warmer-than-normal weather through February.
The mid-Atlantic region is very hit or miss. Although La Niña winters sometimes had above-average snowfall, most winters were below-average.
To get a better idea of what to expect this year, Di Liberto also looked at the effects of a weak La Niña event like the one we’re expecting this year.
The arrival of a weak and short La Niña: its impact on winter
It turns out that the pattern hasn’t changed much, with a few exceptions.
“The north-central United States, including the Dakotas and Minnesota, saw more snow signs during the weak La Niña than the average for all La Niñas, while the Pacific Northwest saw more snow than average for all La Niña events. Snowfall was low, and it did happen, just above the southwestern Canadian border, well below average (not above average, as is the case with all La Niña events).
This map shows snowfall trends during nine weak La Niña winters from 1959 to 2024. (Map provided by Climate.gov)
Di Liberto said it’s bad news for snow lovers in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C. “Weak winters with La Niña conditions all resulted in below-average snowfall.” .
The map above is a better guide for those looking for snow forecasts, as models are predicting a “weak and short-lasting La Niña,” according to the Climate Prediction Center.
But trends are never guaranteed, and there are more forces at play here than La Niña. For example, climate change is causing widespread reductions in snowfall across much of the United States. Unusual snowstorms also occur all the time and can upset expectations.
