President-elect Donald Trump is seeking a second term by sending the Senate an unusual slate of nominees for powerful executive branch positions, seeing his 2024 victory as confirmation of voters’ desire for chaos. He is ready to get off to a good start.
But how much disruption can America’s “cooling disk” tolerate?
The soon-to-be Republican-led Congress is already stretched thin, effectively sinking President Trump’s far-right pick for attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida), amid allegations of sexual misconduct and concerns about his qualifications. It shows that there is. .
In the new session, the Senate will be split between 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, meaning Republicans cannot lose more than three votes to confirm a nominee without requiring bipartisan support. The 50-50 tie could be broken by Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.
Here are nine key senators to watch in the nomination race.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine
The five-term centrist Republican is the only remaining Republican senator representing a blue state. She has survived politically because of her willingness to sometimes stand up to her party, such as voting in favor of impeaching President Trump on January 6, 2021, on charges of incitement of insurrection.
Collins intends to run for re-election in 2026, which Trump just lost by seven points, and is certain to be a top target for Democrats. Mr. Trump’s Cabinet appointments are an opportunity for Mr. Collins to demonstrate his independence if he votes against controversial or radical Cabinet decisions.
An even bigger dynamic for Collins is that she will become chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee. This gives her an opportunity to end bipartisan agreement on a government spending bill, but also potentially deepen her allegiance to the party that has propelled her to that coveted role.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska
Murkowski, a member of an endangered breed known as moderate Republicans, will wield significant power over Senate votes on some of President Trump’s more controversial policies and nominees. Murkowski has already been an outspoken opponent of Trump’s cabinet appointments, telling reporters about Gates’ nomination: That’s Lisa Murkowski’s view. ”
Murkowski is also the rare Republican to support restoring abortion rights protections included in Roe v. Wade, which could influence votes on health care appointments and potential new Supreme Court vacancies. There is. And she won’t be re-elected in deep red Alaska until 2028.
Sen. John Thune, RS.D.
No one expects the next majority leader to be a super MAGA Republican, but he understands his mission to advance Trump’s agenda. Mr. Thune will have to balance that with the institutionalist instincts that have earned him respect from both sides of the aisle.
The nomination will be the first major test of his leadership style. Where will he follow Trump? Where does he draw the line? Will he choose to become a heat shield for members who secretly want to hit back at Trump without acting publicly? And how is he managing his relationship with Trump?
The answer will set the tone for the long-awaited new era facing Senate Republicans.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
McConnell is relinquishing his position as Senate Republican leader after a record 18 years, becoming the ultimate free agent. His altercations and disagreements with Trump have been well-documented. Mr. McConnell’s style as a Republican leader has typically been to read and follow the political winds within the party. Now you don’t have to. He will turn 83 in a few months and has two years left in his Senate term. Cabinet nominees could be an opportunity for Trump to flex his muscle and use his vote to shape his policies.
Will Mr. McConnell use his wealth of influence and goodwill within his caucus to say no to Mr. Trump’s nomination? Or will he make the mistake of acquiescing to the wishes of MAGA leaders? So far, he has offered one hint. Although he has not said anything publicly, McConnell is one of at least five Republican senators, including Collins and Murkowski, who have privately made clear that they oppose Gates’ appointment as AG. Ta.
Mr. McConnell is an outspoken Russia hardliner who supports NATO and the post-World War II order and plans to spend the next few years fighting isolationist forces entrenched in President Trump’s “America First” policy. It suggests that. For example, how will Trump react to the Russia-sympathetic views of former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, whom President Trump nominated to be director of national intelligence?
Senator Thom Tillis, RN.C.
Tillis faces re-election in 2026 after winning his first two elections by less than two points. He is sure to be a target for Democrats in an election year when there are few chances to get elected to the Senate. North Carolina is a difficult state, even for Republicans. He was renominated by a Republican base drawn to far-right figures and must balance his appeal to ordinary voters in purple states.
How long will Tillis stick with Trump in a cycle where, unlike in 2020, the next president won’t be on the ballot and give Trump his back? Candidates will provide hints.
Sen. Bill Cassidy, Republican, Louisiana.
Cassidy is expected to be at the forefront of Trump’s inauguration as chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. His committee is expected to investigate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to be Secretary of Health and Human Services (though the Senate Finance Committee is tasked with reporting the nomination to the full Senate). And Cassidy, who is a doctor himself, has not said how he feels about vaccine skeptics.
As HELP President, Mr. Cassidy will also be deeply involved in all discussions regarding the future of health care policy, including Medicare and Medicaid.
He is up for re-election in 2026, and his vote to convict Trump in his impeachment trial on charges of inciting insurrection, as well as the feud over the nominees, could lead to questions about whether Trump will support Cassidy or whether he has the potential to do so. may influence whether a candidate supports a primary challenger.
Sen. John Curtis, Republican, Utah
Many of those stepping into the seat vacated by outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) are more likely to be closer to the institutionalist senator Curtis will replace, or to fellow Utah Republican Sen. I’m wondering if he’s close to Congressman Mike Lee. Trump ally. The answer may lie somewhere in between.
“He’s not Mitt Romney or Donald Trump. He has his own brand and he was very clear about that in the primary and general election,” said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican congressman from Florida. recently told NBC News.
“I’m not going to give him an unconditional yes to whatever he wants,” Curtis said of Trump during a June primary debate.
Curtis has already made his presence felt by participating in a private resistance movement against Gates. But Mr. Gaetz is only the first real test for Senate Republicans in Mr. Trump’s second term as president, and Mr. Curtis is similar to what Mr. Romney did to Mr. Trump on both candidates and policy. The question arose as to whether this would serve as a kind of check.
Sen. John Fetterman, Democrat of Pennsylvania.
Mr. Fetterman made a name for himself in the halls of the Capitol for his brash, unfiltered way of communicating (and dressing). But Fetterman also unrelentingly supported Israel despite the civilian casualties of military operations in Gaza, and through comments that Democrats have “lost themselves” on important issues such as immigration. , established its own identity by breaking away from the left wing of the party. .
For Democrats, Fetterman’s voice could play an important role in that conversation in a party currently undergoing soul-searching. He also announced his intention to support some of Trump’s cabinet picks, including Mehmet Oz, his rival in the 2022 presidential race, who runs Medicare and Medicaid. .
“He’s going to choose people who disagree with me, and they’re never going to be my first choice,” Fetterman told NBC News. …I’m not going to be part of a collective freakout. ”
Sen. Jon Ossoff, Democrat
Mr. Ossoff faces re-election in 2026 in a state where Mr. Trump just ended a Democratic winning streak dating back to the first-term senator’s victory in 2020. He will likely become a top Republican target for defeat next cycle. A leadership nomination could provide Trump with an opportunity to demonstrate bipartisan bona fides, at least when it comes to his mainstream picks.
The confirmation fight also raises questions about how Ossoff plans to position himself for re-election in Georgia, where Democrats will seek to prove their 2020 and 2022 wins were no fluke. This will give you some early hints about it.
This article first appeared on NBCNews.com. More from NBC News:
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