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California water managers released preliminary estimates of the amount of supply that will be available next year from state water projects, directing 29 public agencies to plan for just 5% of their requested allocations.
The state Department of Water Resources announced Monday that the initial allocation is based on current reservoir levels and conservative assumptions about how much the state can supply in 2025.
“We need to be prepared for all scenarios and take a conservative approach to managing our water supply early in the season,” said DWR Director Carla Nemeth.
The state’s initial estimate last year was 10% of the requested supply, but the allocation was increased to 40% in the spring.
Officials said the initial water supply projections did not take into account the series of storms that flooded much of the state in the last two weeks of November. The storm brought precipitation in Northern California above average levels for this time of year.
“Based on long-term forecasts and the possibility of La Niña, the State Water Project is planning for a dry year in 2025, but with extreme storms like those seen in late November,” Nemeth said. said. “What we do know is that the year of water began after this summer’s record heat and in early October, which dried out the landscape.”
He said officials are looking at runoff projections that take into account how hot, dry conditions in the summer and October have dried out the soil. When soils become too dry, runoff from mountain snowpack is typically absorbed into the ground, reducing the amount of water that flows from streams and rivers to reservoirs.
A weak La Niña event is expected to occur this winter, and NOAA forecasters say the pattern will likely bring drier-than-normal conditions to much of the Southwest. But they also said the outlook is uncertain for much of California.
The State Water Project’s aqueducts and pipelines transport water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to 29 water agencies serving 27 million people.
State officials update their allocations monthly and may increase forecasts based on rainfall, snowpack and reservoir levels. Final allocations for state water projects are typically announced by May or June.
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