• Wednesday’s light rain is expected
• The peak of the storm is forecast for Thursday
• Floods illuminating burns in LA and Ventura County begin Thursday afternoon
The first wave of winter’s strongest storms began to crash into Southern California on Wednesday, but the most damaging rains are expected on Thursday.
All eyes were on the burn scars in Los Angeles County a few weeks after one of the most devastating fire seasons in California history. The National Weather Service warned about high risk of flooding, debris flow [and] It damages the wind. ”
The worst-case scenario could include heavy rain in areas that have recently been burned, where soil melts into a stream of debris that barrels down the hillside at speeds of up to 35 mph, covering cars and homes with thick mud, and they You will be in danger of being hit by a rock.
“Thursday is the most concerning time when wind and rain are the strongest,” said Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist with the Oxnard Meteorological Bureau. Most parts of Southern California should have some light rain one day on Wednesday, with breaks likely to occur from that night or Thursday morning before more extensive rain begins to develop again.
The highest risk of debris flow and road flooding in Los Angeles and Ventura counties is from noon Thursday until 6am Friday. For Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County, peak risk is from 6am Thursday until midnight on Friday.
After Southern California officials blazing criticism that they weren’t prepared before the historic fire, officials say they worked to reduce the risk of flood impacts. The crew rushes to clean up the basin, designed to prevent mud, rock and other debris from falling over into the neighborhood, and thousands of sandbags and compost filter socks (a type of balm) into the storm drain. I made it less likely to flow.
Heavyest rainfall from the storm is expected in LA, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County on Thursday.
(National Weather Service)
In Southern California this week, Kittel said the most likely outcome is that “shallow” debris from burns will cover the road with mud. Thick mudflows may allow parking cars to be soaked in mud.
“There is also the risk of debris flows that are more important than they begin to affect some vulnerable structures,” Kittel said. “It’s not the most likely outcome, but the risk is there,” spurring the widespread flood clock.
Flood clocks for all recent burn areas in Los Angeles and Ventura counties are expected to go into effect from 1pm on Thursday to 4am on Friday. The Santa Barbara County Lake Burn Scar Flood Clock will take effect from 10am Thursday to midnight Friday.
At the peak of the storm this week, flood clocks are expected to be in effect in recent burn areas in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
(National Weather Service)
And all San Luis Obispo County is under flood monitoring from 4am Thursday until noon Friday.
It is also expected to see a flood clock that will allow a wide range of San Diego and Orange Counties and the Inland Empire to continue from Thursday morning until late Thursday night.
The most risk of excessive rainfall is the type that can cause flash floods – located in downtown Los Angeles, in the West Side, in the large strips of San Gabriel and San Fernando Valley, and in the counties of Ventura and Santa Barbara.
Parts of Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties are affected by heavy rainfall, which could cause unusual flooding this week.
(National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration)
The threat from this storm is spreading throughout California.
By Thursday morning, soils around the San Francisco Bay Area could be well saturated, with “extensive landslides” in the wettest areas, according to Monterey Weather Service, which said strong winds damaged It added that it could lead to trees and power outages.
Meteorologists were closely watching the potential for potential flooding on the Russian River in Sonoma County, near the San Lorenzo River, travelling through the heart of Santa Cruz County.
Flood clocks are scheduled for Wednesdays to 10pm in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Monterey, Sonoma and Marine counties from 10pm on Saturdays. Flood clocks are also expected in Sierra Foothills, east of the San Joaquin Valley, from Wednesday night to Friday.
Heavy snow was expected in Sierra Nevada, with 2-4 feet along Sierra Crest near Lake Tahoe and 10-18 inches at the lake level. In Mono County, home to Mammoth Mountain, 4 to 5 feet of snow can fall along the Sierra coat of arms.
In Southern California, the most at-risk burn areas are those burned by the Palisard and Franklin fires in the Pacific Ocean and Malibu. Eton fire in the Altadena area. Then there was a bridge fire at San Gabriel Mountains west and southwest of Lightwood.
“They are in areas where they tend to increase rainfall and interest rates,” Kittel said. However, all fresh burn scars run the risk of debris flow.
In a three-day storm, Palisade scars are expected to receive 3.35 inches of rain. Eton Scar, 4.53 inches. Bridge scars, 4.95 inches. Downtown Los Angeles could cause 2.09 inches of rain. Long Beach, 2.22 inches. Santa Barbara, 3.02 inch. San Luis Obispo, 3.82 inches. Cumbria, 4.88 inches.
(National Weather Service)
The last time downtown LA rain fell was in the 2024 Easter Weekend Storm, where 2.1 inches fell from March 29th to 31st. But the difference between the storms is that it continued into two wet winters in a row and did not lead to harsh wildfires.
By Friday, Palm Springs was able to rain an inch. San Diego, up to 1.5 inches. Riverside, Irvine, Oceanside, Escondido, San Clemente, up to 2 inches. San Bernardino and Riverside, up to 2.5 inches.
(National Weather Service)
For San Diego and Orange Counties and the Inland Empire, the storm is expected to be neither a washout nor “the worst storm I’ve ever seen.”
“It’s not catastrophic,” he said, “We’re going to see some locally torrential rains, and it’s a few floods, especially mud and debris to scars of our burns, and you “It could cause normal city flooding.”
They will pay particular attention to the rainfall rate as predictors are seeing the scars of the burn. The risk of debris flow in recently burned areas starts at about 0.5 inches per hour.
“With our burns, the strength beats the full build-up,” Kittel said. “So it’s not just how much rain will fall over a long period, but how much rain will fall over a short period.”
Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties were able to see heavy rainfall rates of 0.5 inches to 1 inch per hour during the peak storm.
“Enhanced cells can lead to short bursts of precipitation, he said, “a fairly heavy rainfall of 30-60 minutes.”
The risk of thunderstorms is increasing, and is currently estimated at 20% from 10% on Thursday, up from 5% to 10%, Kittel said.
A large gust of wind is expected from the south. Covina was able to see a peak gust of wind at 21 mph. Downtown LA, 23 mph. Long Beach, 26 mph. Redondo Beach and Santa Barbara, 30 mph. Canoga Park and Santa Clarita, 32 mph. Thousand Oaks, 35 mph; Pyramid Lake, 37 mph; San Luis Obispo, 44 mph; Santa Maria, 45 mph. Lancaster, 52 mph; and Acton, 53 mph.
“These are pretty high numbers, especially when you look at the central coast,” Kittel said. Areas on the central coast, including the Cambria area, are at high risk of fallen trees.
Authorities urged residents to sign up for emergency warnings with local agencies. In Los Angeles County, residents can sign up at Ready.lacounty.gov.
They also advised people to stay off the road on Thursday if possible, and listened to evacuation warnings if issued. On Tuesday, Santa Barbara County issued an evacuation warning to fire burn zones and surrounding areas in the mountainous lakes north of Los Olivos. The fire burned more than 38,000 acres in the Rospadres National Forest in 2024.
No more rain is expected next week after this storm has emerged. Forecasters are hoping for warm weather starting this weekend.
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