After years of decline, California’s population will grow by almost 250,000 people in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, a rebound that has brought the Golden State’s population almost back to pre-pandemic numbers.
The numbers aren’t all rosy. California’s growth rate was lower than that of the nation as a whole, especially the large, fast-growing states in the South. It also experienced the nation’s largest immigration decline.
But experts say California’s new demographics indicate a significant turnaround.
“The big picture is that California is growing again,” said Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. “This shows that California has a pretty healthy growth rate…the number of people coming into the state from abroad is increasing, and the number of people leaving for other states is decreasing. .The inflow to other states is still significant, but not as large as before.”
California’s population increase of 232,570 people from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024 was the largest population increase in the western United States, while Texas’ population increased by 562,941 people. That was far behind Florida, which saw an increase of 467,347 people. .
California’s population growth rate of 0.6% was also lower than the national average (0.9%), but significantly higher than the District of Columbia (2.2%), Florida (2%), and Texas (1.8%).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, California’s population declined after a decade of steady growth. In 2020, the state’s population reached a record high of more than 39.5 million people, but by July 1, 2021, only 1% of the population has reached a new high due to a flurry of restrictions, including the closure of offices, retail stores and restaurants. Nearby decreased. And school.
California remains the most populous state in the nation, with 39,431,263 residents, significantly more than Texas’ 31 million and Florida’s 23 million. However, the total population remains 124,000 people short of its 2020 peak.
California’s population decline is seen by the right as a sign of the failure of liberal progressivism. Republican critics such as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have described California as a state in decline, calling it a bastion of high crime and unaffordable housing. He claimed that residents of the state have been fleeing to red states in recent years. , overregulation and bizarre leftist ideology.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office praised the Census Bureau’s estimates, which were released the same week the California Department of Treasury released data showing the state’s population growth.
“To pursue the California dream, experience the success of the world’s fifth-largest economy, and strengthen the future of our communities, our regional economy, and our state, we are working hard to support our nation and the world,” said Brendan Richards, a spokesperson for the state of California. People from inside are coming to the Golden State.” Newsome.
California’s population growth is primarily due to international migration and natural population growth (the net result of births minus deaths), rather than domestic migration.
California experienced the nation’s largest decline in domestic immigration (-239,575 people), while Texas saw an increase of 85,267 people, according to Census Bureau estimates.
The main driver of California’s population growth is people from outside the United States. California experienced the second-largest net increase in international immigration, bringing in 361,057 people from other countries, behind Florida’s 411,322 but ahead of Texas’ 319,569.
California also had the second highest natural increase in the nation (births exceeding deaths), with a net increase of 110,466 people, just behind Texas’ 158,753. It didn’t arrive.
Beyond culture war rhetoric between red and blue states, demographic shifts have the potential to reshape the nation’s potential landscape.
In 2021, new census data shows the state lost a House representative for the first time in state history, reducing its House seats from 53 to 52. The Brennan Center for Justice predicted last year that the state would lose four more congressional districts to reapportionment in 2030, leaving California with just 48 House seats.
Michael Lee, senior adviser for the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program, said Friday that the Census Bureau’s new estimates show that national redistribution in 2030 may not be as dramatic. . But assuming the population trends of the past two years continue for the rest of the decade, California is still on track to lose three or four seats, and many more, depending on how harshly President Trump’s administration cracks down on immigration. He said he could lose his seat.
“California’s population is primarily supported by immigrants,” Lee said. “About 360,000 people are coming into the country from outside the United States…That’s going to change because we have a new administration and we’re talking about deporting millions of people and possibly cutting off the path of legal immigration into the country. There are many possibilities.”
Lee said it’s possible the Trump administration could tamper with the census. For example, adding citizenship questions can reduce turnout and participation.
The Census Bureau estimates come a day before the California Department of Treasury released data Friday showing the state’s population grew by about 49,000 people in the fiscal year that ended July 1 to 39,172,742. Announced. The department’s estimate is significantly lower than the Census Bureau’s estimate of 232,570 people, primarily because the Bureau says international migration to California is much higher.
As a demographer who has studied population data for decades, Johnson said the difference between this year’s estimates from the Census Bureau and the California Department of Treasury was striking.
“The big difference is immigration, but immigration is difficult to measure,” Johnson said. “We have legal processes and administrative records, but for example, people sometimes adjust their status from some sort of temporary status to a permanent status. Strictly speaking, that’s the difference between immigration and But it’s not new residents. And of course, unauthorized or illegal immigrants are difficult to measure as well.”
The California Department of Treasury attributes the state’s growth to a combination of factors. Legal immigration continues to rebound after the pandemic. Inward migration has increased and out-migration has slowed. Natural increase as death toll declines from the peak of the pandemic.
Johnson said he doesn’t expect conservatives to stop holding up California as a symbol of national decline.
“There’s still a lot of people leaving California for other states — there’s no question about it — so there’s probably going to be some political debate there,” Johnson said. “The reason is that the cost of living and housing prices are very high in California, which means people want to live here based on supply and demand.”
At the height of California’s rapid population growth, Johnson said, the state attracted people not only from abroad but from other parts of the country. However, this has not been the case in recent decades.
Still, Johnson said liberals could push back against naive conservative claims and give them a reality check.
“Why is California so expensive?” he said. “Probably partly because it’s harder to build homes here. But one of the reasons it’s harder to build homes here is that land is expensive, and in California, a lot of people don’t buy land. This is because land is expensive because many people want to own a house.
