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China will no longer build nuclear weapons just for deterrence. They use them to encourage ambitions as the dominant force in Asia, seeking to blackmail US allies and undermine American influence across the region.
The Hudson Institute warns that by the mid-2030s, China is expected to become the US nuclear affiliation in both quantities and quality, protecting a modern, viable and diverse arsenal, including over 1,000 warheads, a fully developed nuclear triad and tactical nuclear capabilities.
But Beijing’s goal is not to win a nuclear war, the report argues. It is manipulating and dismantling American trust in nuclear umbrellas, especially between US allies in East and Southeast Asia. By doubting Washington will be in crisis and defending them, China hopes to put pressure on countries like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea on strategic passivity.
“The purpose of amplifying uncertainty is to manipulate the concept of risk into Chinese advantages,” the report states. “This is primarily about exacerbating the s-aggravation among US allies by exploiting the enduring fear of abandonment and doubts about American commitments.”
Japan calls China, Russia and North Korea’s axis to the global order since World War II “the most serious threat”
China, led by President Xi Jinping, can no longer build nuclear weapons just for deterrence. They use them to promote ambition as the dominant force of Asia to intimidate US allies and undermine American influence across the region. (File via Li Gang/Xinhua)
China’s military strategy combines rapid nuclear modernization with psychological operations with information warfare. The country is investing in advanced technologies such as high-sonic boost glide vehicles and fractional orbital bombing systems. This is a space-based platform that can provide nuclear strikes from low-Earth orbits with little warning. The warhead can now be fired from silos, submarines, road mobile launchers and aircraft.
The report urges the US to “waive false hopes of arms control” with China, and instead embrace the doctrine of strategic ambiguity and instability.
President Donald Trump has expressed interest in future arms management talks with both China and Russia, but analysts have said Beijing has little genuine interest in limiting nuclear power.
Hudson’s report dedicated case studies to three important allies, the Philippines, Japan and South Korea, dedicating ways in which China uses nuclear threats differently in each case.
Philippines
While Manila is more interested in grey zone conflicts in the South China Sea, China could increasingly use implicit nuclear threats to discourage it from hosting US missile systems like the Typhon launcher, which could invade China’s territory. China has already begun rolling out messaging through state-related outlets that suggest it will target assets based in the Philippines.
Japan
Though heavily dependent on the US nuclear umbrella, Tokyo, constrained by strong domestic anti-nuclear sentiment, faces an information campaign from Beijing, designed to shake up confidence in US commitments. China is applying psychological pressure to prevent Japan from building counter-strike capabilities and supporting conflicts over Taiwan.
The Pentagon reports Australian Japan about its role in Taiwan’s potential conflict
China can launch nuclear weapons from submarines, ships or land. (Reuters/Jason Lee)
South Korea
Seoul focuses narrowly on North Korea’s nuclear threat, not on China’s nuclear threat. It is reluctant to be fully aligned with US efforts to block Beijing, and it is unclear whether South Korea will allow US troops to use the base in cases of Taiwan’s accident. China has left Seoul separate and freed from the wider East Asian conflict, according to the report.
The report provides an overview of the four core recommendations.
Abandon the illusion of weapon control: China’s doctrine of opacity and ambiguity makes traditional weapon control contracts inoperable. Military accumulation that directly allied with Beijing’s actions.
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“Washington and its allies must show that China’s accumulation is backfiring, not fear or passivity, but renewed resolve and regional recontract,” the report said.
The report will land ahead of the upcoming Pentagon Global Force Posture review, which is expected later this year. The Pentagon is widely expected to announce a shift in military forces from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, reflecting its emphasis on people in the Biden administration and potentially Trump’s large-scale competition with China.
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