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Home»LA Times

Could the devastating wildfires have been worse?

Artificial IntelligenceBy Artificial IntelligenceNovember 11, 2024Updated:December 1, 2024 LA Times No Comments5 Mins Read
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Six years ago this week, one of the most destructive fires in Southern California history exploded near Santa Susana Pass.

Over the next three days, the Woolsey Fire tore a path of destruction through the foothills of southeastern Ventura County and Malibu, literally burning through the sand next to the Pacific Coast Highway. Approximately 1,500 structures were destroyed, nearly 100,000 acres were burned, and three people were killed.

This region of Southern California has historically proven prone to large fires because it is susceptible to strong Santa Ana winds, which often have the driest weather in the fall and winter.

Last week, that dangerous combination occurred again in the Mountain Fire, which exploded not far from the devastating footprint of the 2018 Woolsey Fire. The fire burned more than 20,000 acres, destroyed 134 structures, mostly homes, and damaged 80 others, making it the most destructive fire for Southern California communities since Woolsey.

path of destruction

The mountain fire ignited amid dangerous red flag conditions, with authorities warning that a very fast-moving fire could occur. Firefighters first responded to a large wildfire on South Mountain in the Santa Susana Mountains around 9 a.m. Wednesday. Strong offshore winds and extremely dry brush caused the fire to spread quickly and burn through the hills near Camarillo by the afternoon.

There have been six other large wildfires in the area since 1986, burning more than 1,000 acres. Most recently, the 2023 South Fire and 2019 Maria Fire burned thousands of acres on the western portion of the Mountain Fire boundary. In 2003, the 108,000-acre Simi Fire burned in eastern Ventura County, reaching its terminus near South Mountain, where the Mountain Fire started.

In November 2019, similar Santa Ana winds sparked the Maria Fire along the Santa Clara River. However, it primarily threatened Santa Paula and did not reach further urban enclaves.

Ariel Cohen, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office, said the area is a “favorable corridor” for Southern California’s Santa Ana winds, which have caused many of the recent fires.

Fires typically burn many of the most flammable fuels and take years to reignite, so once a fire starts, it quickly becomes difficult for new fires to start in the area. But when fires burn large and frequently, as seen in the Camarillo area, larger, more resilient leaves struggle to regrow, allowing fast-growing invasive grasses to take root. and they easily dry out and flare up.

The cycle repeated itself this fall, with two years of growth-boosting rain followed by a hot late summer followed by extreme dryness.

“This was definitely an area of ​​great vulnerability,” Cohen said. Twelve consecutive months of up to twice normal rainfall produced large amounts of “smaller fuel” in the form of underbrush and grass, “which in turn provides the basis for fires to spread very efficiently. “It has become,” he said.

Growth of the 2018 Woolsey Fire

(LA Times)

Could it have been worse?

“The Mountain Fire could have been a repeat of the 2018 Woolsey Fire or even the 2017 Thomas Fire, but fortunately, the That situation never happened,” he said.

The Thomas Fire, which destroyed more than 1,000 structures and burned more than 281,000 acres in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, was a Mountain Fire characterized by low humidity, brisk Santa Ana winds, and lots of dry brush. and occurred under similar circumstances as the Woolsey Fire. wilderness and urban environments.

“Every condition was perfect for a fire of this size,” the former fire chief said. If the windy conditions had lasted longer, Lorenzen believes this year’s wildfires would have been even worse.

Aerial view of the Camarillo area before the Oct. 21 wildfire.

(Maxar)

Most of the losses occurred during a few hours Wednesday when Santa Ana’s winds were at their strongest. That morning and afternoon, wind gusts of 60 to 80 miles per hour pounded the foothills around Moorpark and Camarillo.

The winds were so strong that planes dropping moderators were grounded, at least temporarily. At the same time, the demand for water from firefighters was so high that some members lost water pressure and were forced to haul water to certain areas. Some firefighters at the scene said this caused difficulties, but officials insisted there was no disruption to operations.

By Thursday, winds had begun to subside, helping firefighters with their efforts.

Officials said the fire was 36% contained by Monday morning as firefighters continued to mop up hot spots before winds picked up again this week.

In the weeks and months following the Woolsey Fire, there was much discussion about whether something could have been done to minimize the extent of the damage. A Times investigation found that first responders on the front lines of the Woolsey Fire struggled in the first critical hours due to communication breakdowns and a lack of air tanker support, equipment and firefighters. .

But while it’s still too early to tell whether the wildfires could have been handled differently, officials praised fire weather warnings and evacuation efforts, saying there were no deaths even as the fires spread quickly. It points out the fact that there is no.

“Our partners and society were all prepared,” Cohen said.

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