On January 7th, violent winds whip the hills of San Gabriel Mountains, residents desperately called Edison in Southern California and utilities were turned away to power to prevent electrical equipment from tempting wildfires. I begged.
A few minutes after 6pm, witnesses discovered the fire under the Edison Transmission Tower in Eton Canyon. Since then, there has been intense scrutiny from both investigators and experts as to whether the tower has lit fires that destroyed more than 9,000 structures and killed 17 people.
The exact cause remains during investigation, but Edison acknowledges that evidence suggests that the device may have played a role. The company previously revealed that the route over Eton Canyon saw an instantaneous increase in current around the same time that the fire began.
What’s not fully explained yet is why utilities slow down power cuts to most of the region and whether they can do more to prevent catastrophes.
Public records revealed by the Times show that the company was warned three years ago about the risk that a power shutdown would overload other power lines. The revisions that some experts say could repeatedly delay risks, records show that scheduled work has not been completed.
Edison spokeswoman Kathleen Dunleavy noted the jump to conclusions about the possibility that he had begun the flames.
“We are exploring all the possibilities, including potential involvement of the equipment,” she said in an interview. “I don’t know what caused the Eton fire.”
Views of Edison Transmission Tower in Southern California in the Eton Canyon area, where the Eton Fire was reportedly first discovered.
(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)
Records reviewed by Times include a series of “Wildfire Study Scenarios” detailed in a March 2022 report created by independent system operators in March 2022, or Caiso, which oversees the state’s power flow and transmission plans. Included.
The report states that preemptively reduces electricity to a few key power lines, including those who run through Eton Canyon, where lawyers and investigators for fire victims are no longer in the 900-1,000 megawatts “directly.” It has been shown that it can cause load shock. The surge magnitude can cause heat, sagging, arcing and power lines that maintain energy to potentially start fire, experts said.
Earlier this month, lawyers suing Edison on behalf of the fire victims revealed a new theory that the long-standing country towers of the canyon had somehow begun to set fire that night.
Edison says that in the area closest to Eton Canyon, it will preemptively cut electricity to a limited number of low capacity distribution lines of the type that are usually carried to individual homes and businesses by wooden poles. However, until after the Eton fire, it did not derail the large power lines carrying electricity through the canyon over a giant metal tower.
A 2022 survey found that Edison “contains a surge in these major propagations,” said Robert McCullough, a veteran energy analyst who has studied decades of wildfires caused by electric companies. He said he was warned that “there may be some negative effects” of the power shutoff. line. ”
Surges can lead to power line overload and “catastrophic failure,” McCullough added.
” [California Independent System Operator] Three years ago I was researching the issue here and showed that there was a good reason not to rule out the line,” he said. “In fact, there was a proposed solution that wasn’t completed yet.”
Cody Warner, an energy scientist at the HAAS School of Business’s Energy Research Institute at Berkeley, California, said in a 2022 survey that blackouts caused “load and overload scenarios, heat concerns” for nearby transmission infrastructure. He said it was found to occur.
The company was aware of the risks of its reduction capabilities, but it had to make difficult decisions in the face of dangerous weather conditions, Warner said. Also, activating the line would have been dangerous to blow tree branches and other debris.
“We can look after the facts and see the enormous consequences of potentially not repeating the line of transmission,” he said. “In these extreme weather events, it shows that the error is very small.”
Edison spokeswoman Dunleavy said that studies, such as those published in 2022, “did not affect SCE’s operational decisions regarding de-ergizing,” on January 7th.
“They are considering a hypothetical transmission plan,” she said. “This is very different from the actual operational research used for real-time decision-making.”
Jayme Ackemann, a spokesman for California Independent Systems Operator, said the purpose of the 2022 survey was to assess whether utilities including Edison would be beneficial to “additional transmission systems added.” I did. Risk of wildfires.
The report “was not designed to inform when the Public Safety Force Closure (PSP) should be launched, and the research was not used for that purpose,” Ackemann said. Ta.
After raising the fantasies of a massive surge from partial power shutdowns, a 2022 survey outlined “potential wildfire mitigation solutions” for key segments of the transmission line.
By “reintroducing” the line and improving “substation terminal equipment,” the $17.3 million project would have had a major impact on reducing the risk of “. [Public Safety Power Shutoff] Or the impact of wildfire events. ”
Records show that California Independent Services Operators approved work that was planned about three years ago. However, according to documents released in July 2024, the upgrade was not scheduled to be online until June this year.
The scheduled work is a “very important” mitigation measure that could allow power shutdowns during storms without risk of overload, Warner said.
“What they found,” he said, “If they did a project that would redirect them, they could strip the line of Eton Canyon without causing a potentially dangerous power surge. I could.”
“This project was recognized as potential benefits under a different Wildfire Study scenario,” said Ackemann, California Independent Systems Operator.
Dunleavy said reconductive work was pushed back, along with “material delays,” “the challenges of stopping adjustments,” and “the complexity of planning transmissions and transmissions through the metro area.”
She said the company now expects the work to be completed in May.
“There’s nothing to do with the project,” Dunleavy said about the company’s decision on whether to cut power on January 7th.
As Edison officials have highlighted in recent weeks, she said the wind speed before the Eton fire began didn’t meet the threshold to block power to the area’s power lines.
“There are protocols that are used when releasing energy. These protocols are supervised by [California Public Utilities Commission]Dunleavy said. “And they have to do with wind speed and have something to do with a variety of other factors that we take into consideration.”
But experts said the job could make a difference.
“There’s absolutely no reason to believe the modelling they did in 2021-22 is wrong. By resolving the line, it would have reduced the chance of a hillside surge,” McCullough said. I said that.
Without modification, Edison had another option in the case of dangerous conditions, the service operator wrote in a 2022 presentation. Continue to flow electricity through more transmission systems.
“Exclusion of one or multiples of identified critical facilities” – a short list containing transmission lines carried out through Eton Canyon – “Approximately 100% of the impact of identified loads and most affected areas.” Addressing system performance concerns,” the presentation.
Counterintuitively, independent operators proposed that powering on significantly reduce the risk of overloading the system.
Edison’s precise role in fire lies under intense scrutiny. In a few weeks since The Blaze, more than 40 lawsuits have been filed against the utility, with investigators combing Eton Canyon as evidence of false equipment.
The lawyers representing those affected by the Eton fire against Edison in Southern California who reviewed documents revealed by The Times could be key to understanding utility decisions before the fatal flames He said.
Mikal Watts, a Texas-based Watts law firm, co-affiliated with a utilities lawsuit on behalf of three Altadena residents who lost their homes at Eton Fire on February 4, according to records. And when you close the power, you say, “You can have this arc because you don’t properly manage the load according to your plan.”
“Even if you turn it off, you still need to ease the load,” he added.
Edelson PC partner Ali Moghaddas, also a Chicago law firm suing Edison, said in a statement that he knew the company needed to take steps to reduce the risk of excluding power lines. Ta. “I’ll do the T soon.”
The Edison website contains a page dedicated to shutting off public safety capabilities. This page states that it is an “important tool used to prevent wildfires.” The company is responsible for determining when to start shutoff based on a number of factors, including strong winds, low humidity, “dry vegetation that may serve as fuel,” and “public safety risks.” He says there is.
Whatever the reason for the decision regarding the power shutoff, Edison officials knew there was a high interest, Warner said:
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