• Possibility of 10 % to 20 %, fragments flowing in burned areas.
• Damage landslides are not the most likely scenarios
• But threats are high enough to ask people for preparation
Recently burned by a mountain fire in Los Angeles County, Southern California has the risk of floods and landslides in preparation for the first heavy rain in winter.
“The threat is enough to prepare for the worst scenario,” said social media, an office of the Oxnard National Meteorological Bureau.
The forecaster is now the most vulnerable, the most vulnerable area, the burning area of Parischlin and Franklin, in areas burned around the Pacific Parisards and Maribu, with 10 % to 20 %. He said that there was a probability. Eaton is a fire around Altadena and Pasadena, the fuse is shooting around Castety Lake, and the bridge is burning in Angelus National Forest north of Greendora.
In the fall, the bridge burned more than 56,000 acras in Los Angeles County and Sunberner Dino County, destroyed 81 structures, and injured eight firefighters.
Based on the US geological survey evaluation, these burnt areas have the highest possibility of a significant flow of fragments, saying, Ryan Kittel, weather service meteorist Ryan Kittel.
“They are part of fresh burns. They are close to communities and vulnerable infrastructure, and the direction of the terrain is more likely due to the strength of these areas, especially the high total and rainfall. , We will support these areas with higher possibilities, “Kittel said.
The probability of floods and fragments in the recently burned areas issued on Friday afternoon has increased from 5 % to 10 % expected one day ago. “Damage the flow of debris is not the most likely result, but this storm still has a lot of uncertainty,” said the Meteorological Bureau.
Animation Infographic indicates that the flow of debris works.
The recent burning areas have the risk of damaging floods and landslides, as the heat from the fire makes it difficult for water to absorb the top layer of the soil. The soil becomes a repellent for water, which begins to flow on the surface of the downhill, picking up rocks and fragments.
As a result, it may lead to “mud flow”. There is generally not only starting to run down the hill with only mud less than 15 feet, but also more destructive, potentially fatal, “flow of debris”, and water descending the hill is rocks and branches. , Sometimes picks up rocks. Giant rock. The flow of mud and fragments is a type of landslide.
“The most likely result is that there is no significant flow of debris, but the increase in threats has a great chance to ensure the message that it is there,” says Kittel. I said. The possibility of the flow of debris is “a threat that people still plan and consider.”
“The most likely result is that there may be a little shock, which may have a shallow debris,” Kittel added.
timing
The Meteorological Bureau forecasts a flood monitoring during a high -risk period from 4:00 pm on Sunday to Monday 4 pm.
Sunday nights will be particularly concerned, Ryan Kittel, a meteorological meteorological scholar.
If the weather conditions are advantageous for the flood, a flood clock is issued. “It doesn’t mean a flood, but it’s possible,” says the Meteorological Bureau.
Avoid recently burned areas during that period in Weather Service’s recommendations. Use sandbags to protect real estate. And the residents who have decided to stay can “stock consumables in case of road access blocking”.
(National weather service)
The planned flood clock did not contain a mountain scar in Ventura County.
In Los Angeles County and Ventura County, the possibility of rainfall begins on Saturday afternoon, and the highest rainy intensity from Sunday afternoon of Los Angeles County and Ventura County to noon on Monday is expected. It is common for the bright rain and appears by Monday through the weekend.
This is a slow -moving storm, so it will be stubborn. Alex Tardi, a meteorological scholar, said in the office of the San Diego National Meteorological Bureau. I think the snow will increase considerably.
The forecast has increased the prediction of how much rain it will rain. The adjusted prediction is the result of the low -pressure system stopping from Canada, which seems to be a bit west off the coast of Southern California, rather than expected this storm.
As a result, Kittel said, “There are increasing concerns about the flow of some fragments of the burning scars,” Kittel said.
(National weather service)
Los Angeles County and Ventura County may rain 1-2 inches, but in other places it can be 0.5 inches to 1 inch.
Between Saturdays and Mondays, a thousand Oaks and Oxnard were able to rain three -fifth rains. Redund Beach, Santa Clarita, Filmore, 1/10 of 1 inch. Long Beach, 1/5 in 1 inch. Los Angeles downtown and Kovina, 10 minutes 9 inches.
If Arashi rains with an estimated value, 1 to 1.5 -inch rain can fall on orange -gun, Ontario, Liverside, Lake Elcinoa, Temecula, and coasts along the San Diego coast. San Diego may rain 0.7 to 1 inch, which is 1.5 to 2 inches for Sun Burner Dino.
The rain is expected to snap the Southern California record or the almost dry weather stripes. Most areas in this area have received less than 5 % of the average accumulated rainfall at this point of the water year, which began on October 1.
Los Angeles downtown has been raining only 0.16 inches since October 1. This is only 2 % of the average at this point of the water year, 6.48 inches. The average annual rainfall of LA downtown is 14.25 inches.
According to US drought monitors, Southern California is now either “extreme drought” or “serious drought”.
Possibility of thunderstorms and risks of floods
During this rain event, there is a probability of 15 % to 25 % of thunderstorms anywhere in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and Saint -Luis Obisupo County. Along with that, in isolated areas, the rainfall rate may be 3 inches per hour from 0.5 inches to 4/4 inches per hour.
This is important. This is because the 0.5 -inch rainfall rate per hour is the starting point when the debris flow may be caused in the recently burning area. If the rainfall rate is much higher than that number and appears directly in the burning area, Kittel says, “It is a place where we can get more important debris flow.” I did it.
“Most of the region will not see such heavy rain, but we expect some areas,” Kittel said. “It is very difficult to accurately predict which area looks at those rates, even if it is not impossible.”
Kitel said that the most common rainfall rate in the area is expected to be about 10/10 inches per inch to 1/4 inch per hour. As a result, it should be useful rain.
Tardy said that if it rains with the intensity of one -inch one -hour to one -inch one -inch per hour, it tends to lead to a flood and a water pond in the city. A closed traffic lane.
According to Kittel, there may be a lot of gusts coming from the south. The peak of the 15 mph and 30 mph gust could sometimes be hit on weekends, up to 60 mph in the hills of Antelope Valley. As a result, there is a possibility that a delay in Los Angeles International Airport and airports, including dangerous driving conditions, may occur, and there is a possibility that power outages and trees will collapse.
There is also the risk of small hags.
snowfall
Snow levels can be reduced to 3,500 feet above sea level, and the mountains of Sangabriel can snow 6 to 12 inches. According to the Taejeon Pass, the grape vine section on the Ilan Expressway 5 could snow 1-2 inches, but Kittel said that it could be less or more.
Tydy said that the Big Bear Lake and Lightwood were able to see the snow from 12 inches to 18 inches.
“Mt. Bardi, which is really suffering this year, can probably get up to 3 feet snow, depending on whether the storm moves slowly as expected,” says Tardy.
Most of the storms will have light snow, but Kittel said that the snowfall intensity may be calm between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Kittel hopes that the ice -like roads and snow -covered roads are “delayed, and there are probably some local closed.”
This is one of the first winter snowstorms in the season, following the one before January 7 from the north on January 7 from the north to January 7.
“This will be wider [get to an] Tardy is even lower. ”
Other burn areas monitored by forecasts
Other locations in Southern California, the Meteorological scholars begin in highland in September, spread in the Sun Burner Dino Mountains, and destroy one structure, and look carefully at the 43,978 acras of the line fire. I am.
Tardy said the line fire was burning to 8,000 feet above sea level.
In addition, the burning areas of the airport fire of 23,526 acres of orange County and Riverside County are being watched carefully. The fire at the airport, which destroyed 160 structures, torched the road through the Santa -Anana Mountains, and burned out to Santia Gopique, the highest point in Orange County at an altitude nearly 6,000 feet above sea level.
Long -term prediction
In February, the Northern California was able to return to the winter storm. But Tardy said that Southern California might remain dry at the beginning of the month.
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