In the final weeks before the Nov. 5 election, prospective voters in Los Angeles County are being told that a measure that would double the county’s one-quarter homeless sales tax is closing in on the majority needed to pass. This was revealed in a new opinion poll.
The poll, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government and co-sponsored by the Times, found that half of those surveyed said they would vote for Measure A or had already voted.
This was a 1 percentage point increase from the previous IGS survey in September and a 3 percentage point increase from the August survey. Thirty-four percent of people said they would vote no or had already voted, up from 33% in September but down from 36% in August. 16% remained undecided, saying they did not vote for either version of the bill or could not remember how they voted.
“These numbers are very stable,” said Mark DiCamillo, Berkeley IGS polling director. “It’s close.”
The poll was conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 29, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, making it impossible to tell whether 50% support means the bill is a winner or loser.
But the upward trend bodes well for the Major A campaign, DiCamillo said. “It’s not trending against them.”
Another positive point came from nearly 26% of respondents who had already voted. They supported Measure A by 54% to 31%, compared with 49% to 35% of those who had not yet voted.
“They’re the most likely voters,” DiCamillo said. “If you’re on the side of Jesus, that’s the group you want to bank with.”
But DiCamillo noted that these results could be skewed by Republicans’ historical tendency to vote in person. Support for Measure A among Republicans was only 19%, while 65% of Democrats supported it.
If passed, Measure A would repeal Measure H, a one-quarter percent sales tax approved by voters in 2017 to fund homeless services, raising more than $1 billion a year in revenue. It would be replaced by a projected 0.5 percent sales tax. If not replaced, the Measure H tax will expire in 2027. If a new tax is adopted, it will remain in effect unless repealed by voters.
The new measure would expand the scope of the current measure by dedicating nearly 40% of the funding to homelessness prevention and affordable housing. Sixty percent would go toward comprehensive homeless services, essentially replacing existing revenue from Measure H. Some of that will be eaten up by increased reimbursement rates for transitional housing that are scheduled to go into effect next year. Approximately $175 million, or 26% of the Measure H budget, will go toward programs that will increase by 50% to 100% through July.
Opponents, including the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, opposed the bill, which has no sunset date, and said it was a new bill put on the ballot by “so-called ‘experts'” who have already received hundreds of millions of dollars to fight homelessness. They claim that it is a tax. It would “get a contract to run the same homelessness programs that failed, even though the problem got worse.”
They also object to what they call a “court-created loophole” that would make it easier to pass the bill.
A coalition of nonprofit organizations, including the United Way of Greater Los Angeles and the California Community Foundation, certified the measure as eligible for a vote. Because this is a citizen initiative, the two-thirds majority required for government-sponsored taxes is waived, according to a 2020 Fifth Circuit ruling, meaning that a simple majority could win. be.
Supporters have raised about $4 million for both signature gathering and media campaigns. The California Community Foundation, which donated $2.1 million to the campaign, has invested an additional $4 million in community organizing efforts to generate support, said Miguel Santana, the organization’s president and CEO.
Tommy Newman, vice president of communications for United Way, said the campaign just concluded with an aggressive phone call to inform voters of the results of Policy H.
“We spoke to over 100,000 voters by phone,” Newman said. “Now is the time for voters to decide.”
Newman said his campaign’s polling shows support increases as voters learn more about the bill. The leading argument is that if H were to die, the number of homeless people would increase by 28%, which is predicted in a report by the Los Angeles County Chief Executive.
“The average voter doesn’t really understand what progress has or hasn’t happened,” Newman said. “Tens of thousands of people are receiving housing and services right now, and knowing that that money is going to be gone is the first time that many voters understand what happened in their efforts.”
