If Vice President Kamala Harris runs for California governor in 2026, she has a significant advantage over the crowded field of candidates vying to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom, according to the latest polls. It turns out.
A new poll from the Institute of Government at the University of California, Berkeley, co-sponsored by the Times, shows that nearly half of California voters are very likely to support Harris if she enters the crowded 2026 gubernatorial race in California. , or it turned out to be to some extent.
Harris will likely receive stronger support overall from Democrats, who have a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration. About 72% of Democrats said they were very or somewhat likely to consider Harris for governor, compared with 8% of Republicans and 38% of voters with no party affiliation.
“Almost every voter in this state has an opinion about her, and that’s a big advantage she brings in the early polls,” said Mark DiCamillo, Berkeley IGS poll director. “No other candidate is as well known to voters.”
Still, polling suggests that Californians may have less support for Harris in her gubernatorial run than she did in this year’s presidential bid. The poll found that 46% of likely voters are either somewhat (13%) or very likely (33%) to support her in the 2026 gubernatorial race. As of Tuesday, Harris had won 59% of California’s presidential votes.
The poll is the first to measure how Californians feel about Harris running for governor. Harris has not said publicly what she plans to do after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, and her representatives did not respond to requests for comment.
Mr. Harris has a home in Brentwood and enjoyed a successful career in California politics for nearly 20 years, rising from San Francisco District Attorney to California Attorney General to U.S. Senate. Several years ago, she opened a campaign account to raise money for her candidacy for governor, but public filings show she closed it in 2018.
Harris has not indicated she would run for governor, but the idea has been floated by some Californians disappointed by her loss.
Ms. Harris will join more than a dozen candidates who are in the race to replace Mr. Newsom or are considering starting a campaign. Newsom is serving his second term and cannot run again.
In addition to the poll question about Harris, California voters were asked to choose their first and second favorites from a long list of candidates and candidates running for governor.
Mr. DiCamillo said voters’ opinions about Ms. Harris could not be compared to their opinions about other candidates because voters were not asked which one they would choose. DiCamillo said she felt it was premature to include her in a head-to-head matchup with other candidates because she was still running for president at the time the poll was conducted.
More than half of registered voters say they have no preference between candidates. Among the competitors, the favorite has not yet entered the race.
Polling shows that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) has not announced whether she will run, but could lead the pack as the first or second choice of 13% of voters. It turns out. Two Republicans said to be considering a campaign, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and state Sen. Brian Dahl, who ran against Newsom in 2022, each have 12 registered voters. % and 11% were their first and second choices.
Porter is scheduled to leave the House of Representatives in January, but has been on the list of candidates for governor since running for the Senate in March. When asked last weekend by FOX 11’s Erex Michaelson if she would run, she said, “I’m still thinking about it.”
The two Democrats campaigning are Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis and former Los Angeles Mayor Antoino Villaraigosa, each with 7% support. The same goes for Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, but he has not announced whether he will run. Republican commentator Steve Hilton is also said to be considering a bid, which would be the first or second choice for 6% of voters.
Some candidates, including senior state candidates, have already entered the race. Public Education Secretary Tony Thurmond, State Sen. Tony Atkins and former Secretary of State Betty Yee received support from less than 5% of registered voters.
The same was true for several politicians who have not announced their campaign, including in Ati. Gen. Rob Bonta said he is “seriously considering” running for office. Developer Rick Caruso lost the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race. and Lanhee Chen, a Republican who lost the 2022 state secretary race.
DiCamillo said it’s an “impressive list” of candidates, but the majority (52%) of California voters who have no opinion on any candidate are concerned about how little most voters know about the race. He said it highlights how much of an advantage Harris has because of her. Popularity.
“Most California voters don’t pay attention to what’s going on in state politics,” DiCamillo said. “That’s why it takes a tremendous amount of campaign resources to make them aware of your existence.”
Polls show Porter as an early leader not only among the state’s registered Democrats, but also among Asian American, white and female voters. DiCamillo said having the support of women is an advantage because the majority of registered Democrats in California are women.
Latino voters slightly support two Democrats, Villaraigosa and Becerra, and Bianco. DiCamillo said Latino support for both Republicans and Democrats reflects the rightward shift he’s tracked in polls about President-elect Donald Trump and U.S. Senate candidate Steve Garvey. “We performed better among Latinos than we have historically seen,” they said.
“It appears that Latino voting is more active now than in past elections,” DiCamillo said.
The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish among 4,838 registered voters in California from October 22nd to 29th. The margin of error is approximately 2 percentage points.
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