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The year was 2010. Donald Trump appeared in season 3 of “Celebrity Apprentice.” Obamacare squeals through Congress. Justin Bieber, with the help of Ludacris, scored the breakout hit “Baby.”
And in California, Arnold Schwarzenegger involved his second and final term as governor.
For three days starting in 2011, Hollywood celebrities left the office, marking the last time Republicans served Sacramento’s top job.
Could that change next year?
Diving into this week’s governor race, conservative commentator Steve Hilton is showing the growing opportunity for a party that has not held significant power at the Capitol since the “Avatar” reigned as the monarch.
That’s not to say that the GOP acquisition is not the case. Only the most punch-drunk party would give Republicans a 50-50 chance to take over Gavin Newsom.
Some may say that JD Vance is likely to be elected the next Pope.
Kevin Spiran, a Republican strategist who is not involved in the GOP contest, believes the party will “need a lot of breaks” to elect governor in 2026. However, he went from 35% to under 40%.
What is the Republican outlook?
“It’s homeless,” Spiran said. “It’s public safety. It’s affordable. It’s tax. It’s gasoline prices. It’s energy policy. So these are just bread and butter issues.”
If Kamala Harris decides to run, Spillane believes it will only increase the chances of grabbing GOP governor.
“You could leverage national Republican fundraising,” he said. A small donor. A big contributor. “There is clearly a lot of hostility on the Republican side towards her. She, along with Gavin Newsom, is seen as a symbol of California’s multiple policy failures.”
However, Garry South, a democratic strategist who twice helped elect Governor Gary Davis, is extremely skeptical.
“There’s no chance,” he said of Hilton, Bianco or other Republicans who are envisaging governors in January 2027. “Zilch. Zero.”
The South pointed to the state’s political profile. Only 25% of registered voters are Republicans. Democrats make up 45%, and most people whose voters are not involved tend to lean towards Democrats.
“The numbers don’t match,” South said. “Get a calculator and do math.”
He acknowledged that Democrats running for governor were not campaigning at their best times or benefiting from many goodwill. After almost half of the one-party one-party rule in Sacramento, responsibility for California’s deep-rooted issues is never escaped.
“There’s clearly a sense of anxiety about the homeless situation, but this seems constantly out of control. There’s concern about crime,” South said. “but [voters] Don’t look at Republicans, don’t see any potential solutions there. ”
That wasn’t the case when GOP last acquired a statewide office since at least 2006.
However, something strange happened. They witness a convicted felon and two scouts currently occupying the White House.
Matt Shupe is the communications director for the Republican California. In other words, his work means that partisans want to erupt forever. He said there’s no need to knit his neck too hard to imagine a viable GOP pass to the governor.
Republicans have lagged in voter registration, but he noted that it’s not uncommon for candidates to win more than 40% of the statewide vote. In 2022, Lanhee Chen was one of the younger, more attractive Republican candidates in recent years, receiving nearly 45% of the vote in a failed bid against the state controller. Spe suggested that given the unhappiness with Sacramento’s current state, it is not impossible to see the Republicans build that final ground and win a majority.
“It’s like gay marriage or abortion” – Democrats have been using it for years as a BL haughty against Republicans, but “it’s surrounded by our state constitution and we don’t go anywhere,” Spé said. “And assuming Republicans are elected governor, they still have a check and balance of the majority or ultra-majority democratic parliament.
“So I think it opens up the willingness to vote for Republicans just to try something new. That’s desperately necessary.”
With Trump returning to the White House and the economy returning to Skid, Democrats will try to dispel the certainly familiar playbook and turn the governor’s race into an unpopular presidential referendum. (Important Disclaimer: No one knows what the economy will look like in November 2026.)
Anyway, Spe claimed that these attacks would be flat.
The average California voter said, “I’m tired of this war with Trump. That’s not to say they’re all Trump supporters wearing Magazine Hats. But they want the state government to focus on the infrastructure, homelessness, the cost of living and all of this that impact people every day in their pocketbook.”
Rob Schutzman, a Republican strategist who worked in Schwarzenegger’s administration, is less optimistic than Supé.
“That’s not that Republicans can’t be more competitive,” Stottzman said, or improving their overall position in California. A trusted governor candidate can help the party by increasing potential voter turnout that could lift Congress and State Capitol candidates, and laying the foundation for successful runs at the governor’s mansion over the next decade.
When asked about the chances of Republicans winning in 2026, Stottzmann offered about 1% of the time. “For the same reason Democrats don’t become governors.” [ruby-red] Idaho next year. ”
If you’re looking at the bright side of the Republican Party, this isn’t zero.
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