Manufacturers stocking major box retailers say they are running out of time to ease Chinese tariffs without significant prices and supply shocks for upcoming holiday sales. China has shown that trade talks with the US for the first time this week are open, with small business owners saying the next 30 days will be important to place production orders. According to one supply chain data tracker, holiday shipments are already over 50%, but there is hope that markets outside China can make up for many differences in retail shelves.
President Trump said this week that there may be fewer child dolls this holiday season amid his tariff war, but if there is no quick de-escalation between the US and China in the trade war, the hits on retail shelves’ inventory are likely to spread to many shopping categories.
As early as July 4th, many holiday sales promotions could begin to look different. This is because small businesses offered to big box retailers check product inventory and discount plans based on the tariff economy. Employers and supply chain executives have told CNBC that for the next 30 days it will be important for trade transactions that raise China’s tariffs to place production orders and prepare to ship to restock shelves.
Lauren Greenwood, co-founder and president of Youcopia, which manufactures storage containers, has moved US manufacturing to China over the past 15 years to meet demand from retail giant bed baths. She recently posted on LinkedIn about the temporary closure of a factory outside Nanjing, China, which manufactured most of its Youcopia products and opened in January 2025.
Greenwood stopped shipping on April 9th, and the produced products are being held in China. Products such as the company’s top selling item, the StoralID Container Lid Organizer, are at risk of inventory issues if customs duties continue.
“Our manufacturing has been declining for three weeks,” Greenwood said. “I’ll be here in August and some items will no longer be available and the shelves will be exposed.”
Recent manufacturing data from China shows how fast factory work is slowing down, with activity at its lowest level in 16 months.
Youcopia
Factory outside Nanjing in China where most of Youcopia products are made
According to Greenwood, the company has three months of stock and is already affected by the 20% tariffs that had been introduced on Chinese-made products before President Trump added a 145% tariff.
A 20% tariff increased the duties of one shipping container for goods from $40,000 to $75,000 to $80,000. “I added that tariffs above 145% are not an option,” she said.
“We are currently raising prices between 20-25% and are trying to spread the pain of tariffs by asking retailers, Amazon, Target and Walmart for help,” Greenwood says. However, she added, “Even if we share this pain, we can’t control the cash requirement of paying tariffs of over 145%. We are not reverting production unless we see changes in tariffs.”
For the first time since Trump’s tariff announcement, China showed this week that it is open to trade talks with the US under certain assumptions, including an immediate suspension of its trade obligations.
“It’s a delicate balance. It’s important for the next 30 days,” Greenwood said.
Amazon Prime Day, Black Friday, Cyber Monday
“Retailers have been trying to mitigate the negative impact of tariffs for months,” said John Gold, vice president of global supply chains for the National Federation of Retail. “Many front-load freight is in effect before the tariffs, but we were unable to bring everything in at once. Retailers have slowed or suspended holiday orders from China, especially as they cannot afford to pay the 145% tariff.
Retailers are telling CNBC that inventory concerns will affect holiday promotion plans and the number of discounts they offer considering expectations for a more lean inventory. Overall products, faster disappearing stocks could shop during holiday weekend sales on July 4th, Amazon Prime Day in July, Black Friday and Cyber Monday Thanksgiving.
Amazon issued soft guidance on Thursday, with CEO Andy Jassy calling investors to say it makes it difficult to predict how Trump’s Amage-Off-Again tariffs will affect Amazon’s business. “It’s hard to tell what’s going to happen with tariffs right now,” he told investors. “It’s hard to know where they’re going to settle and when they’re going to settle.”
Jassy also showed that there is a wide range of decisions that retail partners may choose to make according to customs duties. Amazon’s third-party seller-based “diversity” means that some merchants “will not intend to pass on all or their duties to their customers,” he said.
Melissa Gad, general manager and brand owner of Colugo, said he is a supplier of consumers and major box stores and a major box stores for strollers and baby carriers.
GAD said it has suspended all new production orders made in China for Colugo’s consumer-friendly strollers at $225.
“This month is important in determining whether to close production to meet the retailer’s upcoming delivery date,” GAD said. “We are launching new products in both autumn and spring. In this standby mode, there may be a six-month gap between ordering and launching.”
Stock analysis shows that Colugo’s popular Black Compact stroller will be the first stroller to be out of stock. The company supplies its strollers for less than a month, up to 4-5 months in other colors.
GAD has posted on social media updates about inventory, saying it would educate them about the impact of tariffs rather than scaring customers.
“We have other colors with more stock. We communicate with our customers and buy strollers now to buy strollers. “We see parents expecting to buy items sooner than we are now.”
Korugo has already pulled back the promotion. “Consumers are usually looking at sales on July 4th, Black Friday and Cyber Monday. As a brand, we really pulled back the promotions because we can’t get discounts on our products unless we receive orders all year round,” Gad says.
Holiday season orders are already over 50%
For retailers, holiday watches are ticking in June, said Ted Krantz, CEO of supply chain data provider Interos.ai, adding, “If you’re placing an order, you’re already late.”
90% of trade is maritime, and lead times can vary widely, he said, in many cases, ranging from two to ten weeks.
According to Interos.AI data, 457,000 different US importers import common holiday products (apparel, toys, candies, chocolate, jewelry, watches, etc.).
Krantz said four weeks after Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement on April 2, holiday shipments fell 53% from 2024 levels, with US maritime holiday shipments significantly declining. Recent CNBC reports show that recent cargo ship activity on the route from China to the US has plummeted.
“Retailers weigh the costs of early orders against the risk of missing sales or empty shelves. For many, peace of mind may be worth the premium,” Krantz said. “Retailers betting on typical holiday playbooks may be shorter as tariff volatility drives supply chain disruption and unpredictable delays,” he added.
A deal with China will not necessarily save Christmas
Due to the combined production times (45-60 days) and marine travel times, the US importers will be notified in June and the number of containers brought by clients can be confirmed to be ready for delivery and delivery of containers arriving in August and September.
OL USA CEO Alan Baer said that while holiday orders are already pending, there is no guarantee that a full order will be placed, even if any orders are placed in June.
“The combination of tariffs and consumer unwillingness and the possibility of lower tariff levels add to the confusion and the overall cycle of order,” Baer said. “Importers want to avoid taking a hit that is higher than necessary if they really can cuts in the near future.”
Baer said the transport window is currently open, but if the blank (cancelled) sails expand, it could close earlier than expected. Data from supply chain intelligence company Project44 shows that since the “liberation date,” the blank voyage from China to the US has increased by 300%.
The International Longshore and Warehouse Union, which is the most violent attack on West Coast ports with a suspension of Chinese orders, has issued a recent statement saying that “reckless and myopic policies have destroyed American workers, hurt important sectors of the economy, and have now lined up in ultra-rich pockets at the expense of hardworking families.”
When the cargo business responds to a suspension of US orders, the ripple effects of the marine transport business will widen.
“We’re looking forward to seeing you in the future,” said Andiabott, CEO of Atlantic Container Line. “Even if a deal is made with China, it will take at least four to six weeks for the ship to return because the ship is not waiting for China. Therefore, the discussion on the difficulties of getting a little Johnny ‘Christmas toy’ will be very effective. ”
There is an opportunity for suppliers and retailers to close the gap in China by increasing orders from other manufacturing sites. This is a situation in which companies relying on Chinese manufacturing could be lost, but shelves were not empty. Paul Brassier, the global supply chain vice president of Logistics, is more optimistic about the retail holiday stocking outlook, based on the move he sees on orders outside China.
“Our data project China’s imports will see cliff events as early as next week, but volumes from India, Southeast Asia and around the world appear to be supporting the overall inbound volume as shippers continue to front-load to meet consumer demand and capture market share from Chinese suppliers,” he said. “There’s not a great deal of opportunity on empty shelves, but instead products from areas manufactured outside of China grabbed the space on that shelves.”
