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WASHINGTON — During the brutal 13-month war in the Gaza Strip, the United States has repeatedly pressed Israel to limit civilian casualties and accept more humanitarian aid.
Gaza health officials say Israel has repeatedly ignored U.S. advice and requests, and more than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed. The flow of aid is very slow and often stopped by Israel, leaving many Palestinians facing starvation.
A similar pattern is emerging in attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The United States called for limited and targeted bombing, but Israel bombed southern Lebanon, Beirut, and as far north as Tripoli.
However, when it came to Israel’s retaliatory air strikes against Iran, the situation was different.
Iran fired approximately 200 missiles and rockets at Israel on October 1, in retaliation for Israel’s killing of several senior commanders of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Most were intercepted by Israeli military and air defense systems supported by the United States and Britain.
Israel vowed to retaliate immediately. The question was when and how.
President Biden has directed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid attacks on nuclear research facilities and oil fields. And in the largest operation of its kind in history, when Israeli warplanes fired missiles at Iran on October 26, they primarily hit military targets and reported only four deaths, all soldiers. It was done.
Let’s take a look at the thinking behind Israel’s actions in Iran.
Why did Prime Minister Netanyahu limit the targets this time?
The Israeli prime minister recognized that Iran was another enemy, far more powerful and potentially dangerous than the militant group Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in the region. no doubt. Iran would be in a position to respond more violently than these groups, even if it proves unfavorable to direct conflict.
That, in turn, could lead to even greater escalation and destabilization across the region, involving even more countries and drawing the United States deeper into the conflict.
Israel has succeeded in destroying large parts of the Gaza Strip and is shattering parts of Lebanon into international condemnation and anger, as well as political and diplomatic isolation, but faces no effective containment efforts. do not have. The price to pay for all-out war with Iran would probably be higher.
Was it easy for him to make the decision?
Probably not. U.S. officials put unusually strong pressure on Israel to scale back its goals, according to people familiar with the talks. Initially, both nuclear facilities and oil fields and other energy facilities were on the list. Israel agreed to remove the nuclear facilities, citing the risks involved and the difficulty of removing them. Eventually, they too gave in to oil in order not to disrupt global energy markets.
After the Iranian barrage on October 1, Israel apparently realized that it could not fend off a complete Iranian attack on its own and needed support from other countries. Therefore, it could not risk alienating the United States in such negotiations.
There were some carrots provided by America.
The Biden administration also offered several incentives to persuade Israel. The government has imposed a further series of sanctions on Iran, this time cracking down on so-called ghost ships that Iran allegedly uses to export illegal oil products. Rapidly deployed an advanced ballistic missile air defense system known as THAAD to Israel. And in a show of solidarity, it launched airstrikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Israel said it had removed many of Iran’s missile batteries and missile production factories in exchange for nuclear and energy facilities. According to Netanyahu’s government, Israel crippled much of Iran’s air defense network with what it called precision airstrikes.
“Absent a major split with the Biden administration, this is about as far as Israel could go,” said Bradley Bowman, a military expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. The operation left Iran vulnerable, he said.
Is it over yet?
Absolutely not. Israel and Iran both say they want to avoid a conflagration, but the two countries continue to threaten each other.
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