Covid-19 is on the rise again in California.
It remains to be seen whether this latest rise foreshadows seen last year, whether it has not seen the nation walled or proven fleeting by the worst summer surge since 2022. But officials and experts say it’s a reminder of the seasonal efficacy of the virus, which is still circulating.
“We’re definitely seeing an increase in the summer,” Dr. Erica Pan, director of the California Department of Public Health and the state health officer, said in a recent webinar.
As is common in Covid cases, the latest rise in infections has not been unfolding evenly across the state. The rise was first registered in Northern California, and has recently just begun to see it in Southern California.
Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, head of infectious diseases for a community doctor in Kaiser Permanente Southern California, said he hopes to see an increase in cases in Southland over the next two to three weeks, based on the levels of coronavirus detected in wastewater.
“My colleagues at Kaiser Permanente in Northern California have already noticed this trend, so I think they’ll be coming to Los Angeles soon,” Hudson said.
However, at this point it is far below the level seen last summer. And it’s too early to say how bad this season is. Last summer we saw particularly strong spikes in the infectious disease, but this past winter was the mildest of the Covid era.
“We’ll know what direction we’re heading over the next few weeks,” Hudson said.
According to Dr. Peter Ching-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco, Covid could be as active as last year, but if not worsened, it could still be as active as last year.
“It’s been a long time since many people were infected,” Chinghong said. “And like last year, new variations are ongoing.”
Qinghong said he has been hearing more people seeking advice on Covid recently. Doctors suggest taking common sense measures to avoid getting sick, such as avoiding people who are sick or getting the latest vaccine.
“Just because you had a simple case doesn’t mean there’s a simple case this time last time,” Qinghong said. “Many people I spoke to about who got the Covid this year were pretty bad cases that lasted for so long.”
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, some countries with the highest levels of coronavirus wastewater activity at this time are in the West. At the state level, California has “moderate” coronavirus activity levels in its sewage, similar to Nevada, Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky and South Carolina, according to the CDC. Florida has “high” activity and Louisiana’s “very high” activity, federal data shows.
The virus levels in wastewater are still rising in many parts of the country, Chinghong said.
The possibility of a silver lining is that Chin-Hong hopes that the proportion of infected people who require hospitalization will continue to fall.
As of early July, the percentage of California’s positive lab tests for coronavirus infection was 5.5%. It’s higher than any point since last winter, but still relatively low, Pan said. On Thursday, the California Department of Public Health said virus levels in wastewater were 66% lower than this time last year.
At this point last year, the COVID test positivity rate was 8.2%, peaking at around 12% in August.
Coronavirus levels are considered high in San Jose and Palo Alto sewers, according to the Santa Clara County Department of Public Health.
“There has been an increase in COVID infections in some parts of the county over the past few weeks,” the agency said.
San Francisco has also seen an increase in coronavirus wastewater levels, but they remain lower than last summer’s surge, according to the local public health department.
Los Angeles County is seeing an increase in the rate at which coronavirus tests return to positive. In the week when the full data is available, 6.4% of lab-tested specimens were tested positive from 4.8% in the previous week.
Coronavirus levels in LA County wastewater have been roughly flat in recent weeks, lower than those seen in the past few summers.
“Overall, the data suggest a slight increase in Covid-19 activity in LA County, but it still doesn’t match the significant ‘surge’ summer ‘increases’,” the local Department of Public Health said.
The story is roughly the same in Orange County, according to Dr. Christopher Zimmerman, assistant medical director at Orange County Medical Institutions.
Covid-related visits to the Orange County emergency rooms remained stable, accounting for 1.1% of all ER visits, compared to about 4% in August 2024, Zimmerman said. COVID-related admission, consisting of just 0.6% of hospitalized patients in the county, remains flat.
That metric has not exceeded 1% since the winter, down from the 1.8% recorded at this point last year.
The California Department of Public Health medium-term forecast predicts a small summer symbiosis wave that is expected to peak in late August, Pan said.
State scientists hope California will see stronger summer covid waves or more important winter waves. They do not expect the nation to see one punch of the seasonal surge typical of the COVID emergency era, Pan said.
Currently, the most dominant circular subvariant is NB.1.8.1, known as the “Nimbus.” However, the fastest growing strain in the nation is XFG, which is nicknamed after another type of cloud, “Stratus.”
Both are highly contagious, with Nimbus being particularly associated with what patients describe as the “throat of a razor blade,” and feeling the throat is scattered after the razor blade. However, current available vaccines are expected to cover these subvarians.
The California Department of Public Health recommends that everyone from six months onwards should have an option to access and receive the currently certified COVID-19 vaccine, with a focus on protecting young children and young children, pregnant individuals, and others at risk of serious illness.
This is stronger than the latest federal guidance, which reflects recent recommendations issued by the Trump administration.
The Trump administration has dropped the recommendation that healthy children and healthy pregnant women will be vaccinated for Covid-19. In formal documents, health officials will provide “no guidance” on whether pregnant women should be administered the vaccine, and ask parents to speak to health care providers before getting the vaccine for their children.
“Last year, the Biden administration urged healthy children to acquire yet another Covid shot despite the lack of clinical data to support their children’s recurring booster strategies,” Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a social media video announcing the changes.
Kennedy, who has slandered the vaccine for many years, did not elaborate on why she would change recommendations for pregnant women in her 58-second video.
Pan said there are some discrepancies in the latest federal guidance given the Trump administration’s recommendation of the Covid-19 vaccine to people at severe risk, a group that includes pregnant women.
Many health groups, including the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Public Health Association, sued Kennedy in federal court, alleging that they violated federal law by modifying their Covid-19 vaccine recommendations without scientific evidence.
In California, an estimated 37% of seniors received at least one dose of the latest version of the Covid-19 vaccine released in September. This rate is around 50% for most of the San Francisco Bay Area.
Senior vaccine coverage is around 40% in San Diego, Ventura, Santa Barbara and Sacramento counties and about 30% in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
“Covid-19 vaccine coverage is still in place,” Pan said.
Pan said many health professionals and scientific organizations are coordinating to support science-based vaccine recommendations. And the Health Insurance Plan Association.
Wary of changes in the Trump administration’s vaccine policy, the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy said, “It aims to encourage vaccine use to be based on the best available science.
California health officials also warn that the proposed federal budget is threatening to seriously cut public health.
The federal government is proposing to cut the CDC’s budget by half, Pan said this month to $9.2 billion to $4.3 billion.
About 80% of the CDC’s funds go to state and local health agencies, Pan said. Almost half of the California Department of Public Health’s budget comes from the federal government, with about two-thirds of the state Department of Public Health budget being given to local health agencies.
The proposed federal budget will eliminate major centers and programs such as the National Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Center, and eliminate hospital preparation and preventive health and health services grants. The proposal also suggests reducing more than half of funding for public health emergency preparations from $735 million to $350 million, Pan said.
In June, the Covid-19 Preventive Connection Subsidy was not extended to California and expired, according to the state’s Department of Public Health.
“These federal funding cuts mean that everyone in Los Angeles County is at an increased risk of infection and contracting,” the LA County Department of Public Health said in a statement to the Times.
Not only will the agency prevent and control infections, it will also test water quality tests on over 57,000 food and restaurants and beaches, inspect issue warnings, examine health facilities safety issues, and respond to public health emergencies such as recent wildfires in the area.
“The President’s proposed budget will continue to dismantle core public health activities and significantly reduce funding for the federal public health grant program, including a 55% reduction to the CDC, a federal grant fund,” the LA County Department of Public Health said.
LA County could lose more than $200 million in annual public health funds under the budget proposal, the agency added.
Among the concerns is the sudden termination of more than $45 million in previously awarded federal grant funds that support infectious disease control efforts and experimental capabilities, vaccination campaigns and substance use prevention.
The federal court temporarily suspends the Trump administration’s efforts to curb those federal funds, the county said.
“But if we don’t win this case, the funds will end suddenly, leading to layoffs, purchase orders and funding cuts for dozens of contracted employees. [community-based organizations] It’s supported by these funds,” the county said.
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