As the sun sets Wednesday night, Los Angeles’ attention briefly turns to the 405 Freeway, just as it does every Thanksgiving night.
A TV news helicopter hovers overhead, reminding the world that there is probably no worse traffic than the 405.
For more than a decade, photos and videos of epic traffic jams stretching from LAX to the Westside have signaled the unofficial start of the holiday weekend, with a snowbound East Coast jealous of a warm Thanksgiving outdoors. It was also a symbol of poetic justice for the people.
But Caltrans traffic data reviewed by the Times shows Wednesday evening is not when the worst traffic occurs.
Although Thanksgiving Eve speeds were well below average, Tuesday is actually the worst day for traffic on the highway, according to a Times analysis of Caltrans data. And Monday is even a little worse than Wednesday, according to the data.
The graph below plots the average speeds in both directions on Route 405 in Los Angeles County over the past five weeks around Thanksgiving.
Overall traffic was worst in 2019 and improved in 2020 due to the pandemic, but speeds have been well below average every Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving for the past five years, and last year the 405 The speed was 53.7 mph.
Marie Montgomery, a spokeswoman for the Automobile Club of Southern California, said Tuesday through Wednesday crashes occur across the country, and “Sunday afternoons and evenings may then be just as busy when people return to the city.”
In the 20 years she’s been tracking traffic, Thanksgiving eve has been bad, but “heading into Tuesday, it started to get more and more intense,” she said.
As traffic conditions deteriorated Wednesday, “people tried to jump ahead of the holiday,” she reasoned.
Montgomery said mornings are an opportunity to beat the rush hour, with less commuter traffic and people off work and schools closed.
The Tuesday before Thanksgiving in 2019 was the worst day on record, according to a Times analysis of 405 cars. The average speed of cars was only 43.3 mph throughout the day.
Last year, the numbers were even higher, at about 48 mph on Tuesday and 49 mph on Wednesday.
A closer look at the data shows that the past two afternoon rush hours were the worst times to drive on the 405, and we have no doubt that will be the case again this year.
During Thanksgiving week 2023, the morning traffic peak (around 8 a.m.) was equally bad on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, but decreased on Thursday and Friday.
However, Tuesday afternoon’s peak was significantly worse than other days. From 5pm to 6pm the car traveled only 34 miles.
Holiday traffic increases along the 405 Freeway in Los Angeles on Sunday, November 26, 2023.
(Dainia Maxwell/Los Angeles Times)
“Caltrans is advising motorists to be especially careful as record numbers of Southern Californians are expected to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday,” the agency said in a statement.
In Southern California, the Automobile Club of Southern California expects about 6.6 million travelers, a record level and a 2.8% increase from last year. Caltrans said 5.7 million people are expected to travel by car, and wet weather could make roads slower and more dangerous.
Anyone who must drive within Los Angeles County this week should do so during off-peak hours or wait until Thursday. But if past data is any indication, families may be willing to undergo suffering to celebrate the apocalyptic 405.
Times staff writer Shelby Glad contributed to this report.
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