Meteorologists warned of possible flash floods just days before the July 4 disaster, which killed at least 133 people. However, local officials in the most intense hit regions say they were shocked by the scale of the devastation.
Chris Santin, chief meteorologist at Woai-TV Channel 4, a San Antonio NBC affiliate, wrote in a recent Facebook post. “Sometimes I’ve been overwhelmed by the regret of the prediction that I could have done more the night before the weather forecast.”
Forecasters often alert multiple times a year about possible floods, landslides, and “red flags” fire warnings. Sometimes these warnings are followed by massive catastrophes, but sometimes they are not.
And it’s not just keeping an alert in mind, it’s now satisfying some.
Two major disasters this year — the floods in Texas and the fiery storms in Los Angeles — are leading some to tackle the issues of how to take action and take care of officials and the public.
In Texas, Shooton said he is experiencing what he calls “predictive regret.”
Fire station vehicles run down the road as serious thunderstorms prompted an emergency flash flood warning from banks on the Guadalupe River.
That’s a few hours before the disaster occurred, despite giving viewers a weather forecast showing “local flash flood signals” on the afternoon of July 3rd. On the 6pm broadcast that day, Achan said, “It was referring to an area where you can see you train in the same area after the storm started. And that’s the classic flash-loading signal here from “Flash Flood Alley.” ”
The disconnect between available warnings and action personnel and public take has been seen repeatedly over the years from inadequate preparations in California ahead of the fire weather and flood warnings, as some communities were unable to evacuate prior to the devastating tsunami that hit Japan in 2011.
Of course, the alerts are taken seriously, and the predictor and official may be in the same room. For example, publicity around Hurricane Hillary in 2023 reached a fever pitch towards Southern California. LA Mayor Karen Bass served at a press briefing with then-fire chief Christine Crawley and the National Weather Service. Despite significant flooding and tragic rescue at Coachella Valley, no deaths have been reported in California.
There are other cases that can help Southern California emerge from an era of severe fire weather and landslide danger. For example, the closure of public safety capabilities and the crew emptying the Debris basin to grab mud from the landslide.
The office of the National Weather Service in Oxnard, which publishes Los Angeles forecasts, is also trying to convey the message more clearly. In 2019, the Meteorological Bureau issued a “Extreme Red Flag” fire warning, which attracted plenty of attention. During last year’s fire season, agents issued five “particularly dangerous situations” warnings that were unprecedented ahead of extreme fire forecasts, including January 6th, when the devastating wildfires in LA County began.
Propane burns in ruins of Malibu’s house, destroyed by the Palisade fire.
(Brian van der Bragg/Los Angeles Times)
On December 30th, despite early briefings on the increased weather risk of fires, Base, who was abroad in Ghana on January 7th, began to rapidly spread a fire that destroyed most of the Pacific Palisades. And the LA Fire Department chose not to allocate about 1,000 available firefighters for an emergency deployment before the Palisades Fire Department.
The Times previously reported that the day before the bus departed for Ghana, her aide received an email on January 3rd from the city’s emergency management department about “high reliability in the rise in wind and fire conditions that will occur next week.” A mayoral spokesman said the email did not suggest an imminent catastrophe.
Bass later fired Crawley as fire chief and accused him of failing to provide appropriate warnings about the possible severe wind events.
One simple lesson we can learn from past disasters is that both civil servants and the public need to respond more to predictor warnings.
A report after action by weather services from Joplin of the 2011 Tornado Disaster found that most residents did not immediately head for evacuation after hearing the initial warning. Some of the reasons include indifference, prejudice towards optimism, and the feeling that sirens were activated too often in Joplin.
However, he said that weather services at the time could do a better job supporting “effective decisions.” The agency said it should ensure that the tools are in place to make conference calls easier at key entities, such as the sheriff’s office and other emergency staff.
Suchan remembers hearing a meteorologist at weather services and remembering Joplin Tornado. The result was 158 deaths.
“I heard them explain the feelings they were hurt by the disaster. They asked themselves whether their warnings were quick enough and strong enough,” Suchan wrote in his Facebook post. “The room was very quiet throughout the presentation. It left me with a mark, but I can’t fully understand that feeling until you experience it on your own.”
Firefighters in the house engulfed in flames on Glenrose Avenue during the Eton Fire held in Altadena on January 8th.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Flood alerts were circulating in Texas for hours and days of the July 4 disaster. On July 2, a Texas official cited the Weather Service, citing the Weather Service, “we warned that heavy rain that could cause flash floods is expected the next day. They said the Swift-Water Rescue Boat Squad could be used to assist with flood rescue.
At 1:18pm on July 3, the Weather Service issued flood monitoring in Carr County and other areas in Texas. A flash hood warning was issued at 1:14am on July 4th, with a “life-threatening flash flood” alarm sounded.
At Camp Mystic, where at least 27 campers and counselors have passed away, leadership noticed the previous flood clock and received a mobile phone warning at 1:14am about a weather service flash flood warning, but did not begin evacuating the camper in a cabin near the Guadalupe River until more than an hour later. The Post reported that water began to rise at All Girls camps around 2am, with at least one cabin being considered at high risk of flooding around a third of the Camp Mystic, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
At the Presbyterian Mo-Ranch Assembly, another camp along the same river, the facility’s manager saw the river rising around 1am and told his boss, who was monitoring reports of a storm approaching, the Associated Press reported. Camp officials acted quickly, moving 70 children and adults from a building near the river, and no one died. The AP said there were no warnings from local governments.
In an interview, Shunten said, “Have you ever been able to do something faster, stronger, or different?”
“We’re watching a massive casualty event, and that’s heavy on my heart,” he said.
His counterpart at the local CBS affiliate provided similar warnings ahead of the flood. Bill Taylor, weather chief for Kens TV Channel 5 in San Antonio, presented a predictive weather model showing severe storms that have been “stayed” for hours in the area around Kerr County.
“If this happens, this will be a major flood issue,” Taylor told viewers on July 3rd.
In an interview, Taylor said he didn’t feel guilty about how he conveyed his predictions, saying he gave him all the information he had about the risk of flooding. Still, “To be honest, I have recently come up with how much of my language will change due to this disaster.”
He and other predictors say they want people to move things like floods more seriously.
“When you say ‘flood watch’ in this area, I mean, you have to be really careful,” Taylor said.
One lingering question is that close Kale County officials (like the sheriff’s office and emergency managers) are watching the storm.
“If emergency managers were asleep that night, oh, they’re not at work anymore,” said Alex Taldi, a meteorologist with the Elephant Bureau, who owns the consulting company Weather Echo.
An alert about possible future flooding should trigger some kind of action far ahead of the storm – Tardy said, especially considering the campsites in the area.
Suchan said appropriate warning systems need to be installed along the Guadalupe River. He said sirens that were activated on July 4th to warn of floods further downstream of neighboring Kendall County “and there were no casualties.”
“I don’t want to see anything like a nightmare. [this]”It’s 2025. We shouldn’t do this.”
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