California and Los Angeles County are cracking down on crime.
Tougher penalties for some drug and property crimes that voters recently approved in Proposition 36 went into effect this month. A few weeks earlier, former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman was sworn in as Los Angeles County’s new district attorney, starting his administration by reversing several policies put forth by his progressive predecessor, George Gascón.
In the 2024 general election, California voters reversed course on criminal justice reform policies and candidates. Proposition 36 overhauls key parts of Proposition 47, which passed easily in 2014. A closer look at the Los Angeles area reveals where Proposition 36 and Hochman are moving forward and how opinions have changed compared to a decade ago.
The majority of communities that supported Prop. 47 in 2014 now support Prop. 36.
I support Proposition 47 (2014)
I support Proposition 36 (2024)
Opposed to Proposition 47 (2014)
I support Proposition 36 (2024)
I support Proposition 47 (2014)
Opposed to Proposition 36 (2024)
I support Proposition 47 (2014)
I support Proposition 36 (2024)
Opposed to Proposition 47 (2014)
I support Proposition 36 (2024)
I support Proposition 47 (2014)
Opposed to Proposition 36 (2024)
I support Proposition 47 (2014)
I support Proposition 36 (2024)
Opposed to Proposition 47 (2014)
I support Proposition 36 (2024)
I support Proposition 47 (2014)
Opposed to Proposition 36 (2024)
In 2014, Proposition 47 was overwhelmingly approved in 90% of Los Angeles County neighborhoods. It turned some nonviolent felonies into misdemeanors. Ten years later, 87% of the regions that supported the ballot initiative voted to overhaul the ballot initiative.
The few localities that voted against reducing criminal penalties in 2014 all voted for harsher penalties under Proposition 36. These include Santa Clarita, Glendora and La Mirada.
Mark DiCamillo, a longtime California pollster who led the Prop. 36 and Prop. 47 polls, said both state measures are targeting the same swing group: “party-neutral” voters and said the decision was made by voters who considered their political ideology to be “half-way.” ”
“The same swing-vote bloc that indicated support for Prop. 47 10 years ago has undoubtedly changed their opinion and is now much more likely to support Prop. 36,” DiCamillo said. said.
Former Rep. Jackie Speer, who previously supported Prop. 47, said in a public statement that Prop. 36 is a “common sense” adjustment to the previous law.
DiCamillo added that comparing polls for each ballot initiative reveals differences across age groups and within political parties.
Among voters across party lines, Republicans were divided on Proposition 47, with Democrats voting nearly 4-1 in favor of turning nonviolent felonies into misdemeanors. In 2024, Republicans voted 9-1 in favor of overhauling Prop. 47, but Democrats’ opinions were more mixed.
“Obviously there was a switch of opinion there, but we had the same age difference. We had the same partisan difference,” DiCamillo said. “We had the same kinds of subgroup variations that we saw 10 years ago, but the views on this effort were very different.”
Rev. Zachary Hoover, executive director of LA Voice, an interfaith community organization that helped pass Prop. 47 and organized opposition to Prop. 36, said his team campaigned in L.A., Long Beach, Inglewood and the San Gabriel Valley. said.
In Los Angeles County, both ballot measures passed with 64% of the vote, but the 2014 midterm elections had record low general election turnout.
LA Voice’s campaign against Prop. 36 reminded people of what Prop. 47 accomplished, especially in places where people benefited from the proposal. But that wasn’t the main message.
“We need to understand the deceptive nature of how 36 is being sold to us, and what it actually does and what we really need: mental health and addiction support. We have further focused on making strong investments in
“When we worked on Proposition 47, it was two years after the ‘three strikes.’ [law]” Huber said. “That was a time when many people were starting to realize that the justice system was racist and continues to produce racist outcomes to this day. People didn’t back down from that. .”
Voters have not changed their minds about the importance of treatment either. A September Berkeley IGS poll found that nearly half of those surveyed supported rehabilitation and other alternatives for first-time offenders.
But imposing tougher penalties on repeat offenders was what drove support for Proposition 36.
“Crime has increased in some ways during the pandemic across the country, regardless of whether there are prosecutors or not,” Huber said. “We haven’t been in touch with each other for a long time. In some ways, the world is more complicated now than it was 10 years ago.”
Who the next prosecutor will be and how to deal with rising crime rates have been high-profile issues in Los Angeles County this fall. The support for Proposition 36 paralleled former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman’s support for district attorney. A majority of precincts (75%) supported both Proposition 36’s increased criminal penalties and Mr. Hochman’s law and order promise. Mr. Hochman defeated the incumbent Mr. Gascón by about 20 points.
Seventy-five percent of precincts supported both Proposition 36 and Hochman for the district attorney.
I support Proposition 36 /
Prosecutor General Hochman
Opposed to Proposition 36 /
DA Gascon
Proposition 36 Yes/
DA Gascon
I support Proposition 36 /
Prosecutor General Hochman
Opposed to Proposition 36 /
DA Gascon
Proposition 36 Yes/
DA Gascon
Proposition 36 Yes/
Prosecutor General Hochman
Opposed to Proposition 36 /
DA Gascon
I support Proposition 36 /
DA Gascon
A pre-election Berkeley IGS poll analyzed likely voters for Prop. 36 and District Attorney in Los Angeles County, and found that the largest combination was voters planning to vote for both Prop. 36 and Hockman (40%) It turned out that it was. The next most common combination, those who opposed the state action and voted for Gascón, made up just 14% of voters.
DiCamillo analyzed the two voter blocs and found that the biggest demographic difference was political. The LA voters who supported Proposition 36 and Hochman were a mix of people who considered themselves centrists or conservatives. By contrast, 82% of those who voted for Gascon and voted “no” on Proposition 36 identified themselves as liberals.
An even mix of registered Democrats, Republicans, and those who registered as “no party preference” or registered with a third party supported Proposition 36 and Hochman. Of the voters who opposed the ballot initiative and Gascón, 74% were Democrats, and the rest were independents or registered with small parties.
“Gascón had a Democratic base, but that wasn’t enough,” DiCamillo said. “If they voted ‘no’ with 36 votes and were a Democrat, they were very likely to support Gascón, but that was a relatively narrow group.” Forty-seven percent of Democrats voted against Proposition 36. I supported it.
92% of the precincts that supported Mr. Trump also voted “yes” in the election on the 36th, and they also voted in favor of Mr. Hochman in the district attorney race.
Mr. Hockman flipped 100 districts won by Mr. Gascon in the March primary.
More votes per square foot
More votes per square foot
More votes per square foot
November 2020 general election
March 2024 Primary Election
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Gascón City failed to win a new autonomous region in the general election. Hochman won all 33 districts held by other candidates in the March primary.
LA Voice Action, LA Voice’s political affiliate, campaigned for Gascón’s election in 2020. Hoover, who is also executive director of LA Voice Action, said his group’s re-election campaign focuses on the promises Gascon made during his time in office. , including not charging the child as an adult.
“He was really, in many ways, exactly what he said he would be,” Hoover said. “And those were the things people wanted back then, and I think most of them still are.”
As a centrist, Hochman ran a campaign proposing a “hard middle” approach to fighting crime. On election night, he credited his victory to a bipartisan coalition that views public safety as a “crossover issue” in an era of political polarization.
With Proposition 36 taking effect, several other California officials have vowed to use the power of the new law to hold people accountable, and criminal justice reform advocates show no signs of backing down.
Hoover noted that Hochman’s platform does include a message of moderation from the judicial reform movement. In his inaugural address, Hochman reiterated his campaign promise to balance criminal justice reform with public safety and called California’s overpopulation of prisons a systemic failure. “I think he understood that in order to win, you couldn’t just say, ‘Gascon is bad,’ or ‘crime is happening,'” Huber said. “Even in campaigns against progressive reformers, we see signs of a progressive reform message.”
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