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Los Angeles’ upcoming rezoning plan will fall far short of its housing construction goals, according to a new analysis by researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
Under a state law aimed at eliminating the housing shortage, the city must set aside land for the construction of 250,000 more homes than existing zoning rules allow. The measure being considered by a City Council committee likely meets state requirements, a UCLA analysis found. But when they analyzed the likelihood of what developers would actually build, the researchers found that the number of new homes would be much lower, said the Housing Initiative project manager at UCLA’s Lewis Center for Regional Policy Research. Shane Phillips said.
Currently, the city’s overall housing production is about one-third of the amount needed to reach the goal. Taking into account development costs and other factors, rezoning realistically increases the likelihood of new construction by only about 30%, the study found.
“The types of changes needed need to be transformational rather than incremental,” said Phillips, a co-author of the study.
The vote scheduled for Tuesday at the City Council Planning and Land Use Control Committee is expected to be one of the final steps in a multiyear process to reshape Los Angeles to encourage housing construction. The proposal would allow developers to move beyond what is currently allowed if they include a certain percentage of affordable units and the property is located near transit or on a major thoroughfare near work or good schools. buildings can be constructed and will be exempt from height and parking restrictions. Additional incentives will be given to projects that are 100% reserved for low-income individuals.
The full City Council and state housing regulators also need to sign off on the plans by a February deadline.
A UCLA analysis found that some of the parcels most likely to see new construction under the initiative are parking lots and parcels within existing low-density multifamily housing areas.
The city could accelerate growth by expanding development incentives to some single-family neighborhoods, which make up 72% of the city’s residential neighborhoods, the study found. Doing so could triple realistic construction capacity compared to current rules, Phillips said.
City officials had considered allowing changes to these neighborhoods, which are the city’s wealthiest but least integrated, but homeowners protested because of the potential for traffic and parking problems. The company changed its policy in response to opposition from public groups.
Phillips said the city should reconsider the exemption if it wants to lower rents and ease eviction pressure on low-income areas where redevelopment is currently concentrated.
“We know that housing shortages are at the root of the affordability crisis,” he says. “As long as we maintain a housing shortage, we maintain rising rents and house prices and the inability to afford them.”
Times staff writer Andrew Khouri contributed to this report.
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