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California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance are early White House favourites for their respective parties.
This is according to a new poll conducted by Emerson College, the parent company of KTLA, Nexstar Media, commissioned within Oka and California politics.
Registered California voters were asked to make early choices for potential candidates in the 2028 presidential election and provide feedback on other issues related to state priorities.
Looking at 2028, there are already candidates well known in both the country’s two biggest political parties, as President Donald Trump is constitutionally legally prohibited from being elected again for the 22nd Amendment.
For Republicans, current vice president and former Ohio Sen. JD Vance is an odds-on favorite to secure a nomination. Vance has 40% support among Republicans who participated in the poll.
Originally a tough opponent of Trump’s presidency, Vance now appears to be most likely to take over him on the GOP.
Vice President JD Vance will speak at Metallus Plant, Canton, Ohio on Monday, July 28th, 2025 (AP, Pool)
Vote second among Republicans, Kennedy had previously called for a Democrat nomination in 2024. This was essentially in the favor of incumbent Joe Biden.
Kennedy continued to run as an independent until August 2024, at which point he stopped the campaign and supported Trump. Environmental lawyers and anti-vaccine activists have never been elected to major political offices.
Harris comes out and who is the California governor’s favorite?
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ranked third among Republican voters, with around 9% support in the Emerson College poll.
President Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Secretary of Homeland Security Christa Noem will speak to the media as he tours the immigration detention facility “Crocopy”, Florida on July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
DeSantis was once considered Trump’s most serious challenger in the Republican primary, but after not collecting one major victory and blown loss at the Iowa Caucus, he dropped out of the race and end up supporting his longtime rival.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the political spectrum, a few well-known figures emerge as early favourites for the Democrats.
At the top of the list is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to survey respondents.
Newsom is the final year of his final term as California governor. Trump’s profile rose especially after Trump’s second appointment, being an outspoken critic of the Trump administration and often using social media to provide unfiltered retorts to the president’s agenda.
California Governor Gavin Newsom will hold a press conference in Sacramento, California on July 25th, 2025 (AP Photo)
Newsom clashed with the president over the administration’s unprecedented immigration enforcement operations in Southern California, refuting the federal rollback of environmental regulations and abortion rights protection, and coordinated his own political tricks to combat the Golden State MAGA agenda.
The governor also had a diplomatic moment with the president, particularly in the wake of the fatal wildfire that destroyed Los Angeles County in January, and during the Covid-19 pandemic in the first President Trump.
Newsom is currently leading the field of presumed Democratic candidates with 23% support among registered voters in California.
The same survey respondent was asked whether they approved or disapproved of Newsom’s overall duties. 44% have approved, while 38% have not approved. Meanwhile, Trump received a 30% job approval rating and a 58% disapproval rating among California voters.
Another familiar face above the list of potential candidates is former Transportation Director Pete Buttigigue. Mayor Pete is a 17% vote among registered voters and is considered a serious player in 2028.
Buttigieg was previously looking for a presidency in 2020. He gained the most representatives that year at the Iowa Caucus, lost momentum and placed second in the New Hampshire primary before halting the campaign. He was appointed Biden’s Secretary of Transportation and was considered to wield some of the most influential in the history of Cabinet position after the passing of the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigigue will listen to questions from the audience at the Voting City Hall in Cedar Rapids, Iowa on May 13, 2025. (AP Photo/CliffJet)
If selected as a Democratic candidate, Battigeg would be the first openly gay presidential candidate among the country’s major political parties.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who says he has no intention of running for California governor, has yet to rule out a potential progression for the third time in the presidency. Harris currently receives 11% support among voters who participated in the Emerson College poll.
Perhaps the party’s biggest rising star, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, received 9% support in the poll. Ocasio-Cortez, 35, will likely be the youngest candidate in the field if he chooses to seek a nomination. She already holds the title as the youngest woman elected to Congress representing New York’s 14th District, including Queens and parts of the Bronx.
Of California voters’ priorities, the economy remains the biggest issue of 30%, starting from 40% in the April poll. Housing and affordability are the biggest issues for 19% of voters, with immigration at 15%, up from 7% in April. The “threat to democracy” was the biggest problem for 13% of voters, and healthcare was the biggest response of 8%.
On the topic of immigration, 60% of California voters are opposed to the state’s massive deportation of undocumented immigrants, consistent with April figures.
Other issues that affect California discussed in the poll include how much the state spends on fire staffing and equipment, and whether Los Angeles is the right place for the 2028 Summer Olympics and Paralympics.
Click here to learn more about the Emerson College poll, including methodology and other survey responses.
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