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Real estate losses from the Palisade and Eton fires could exceed $30 billion, and government agencies that receive revenue from taxes would lose more than $61 million a year while the home is being rebuilt, according to the report. According to time analysis.
The analysis gives a new perspective on the range of victims in two communities by comparing Cal Fire ratings of destroyed and damaged buildings in Los Angeles County Ratings Parcel Records. The fire destroyed 56% of the structures of all properties that make up the Pacific Ocean’s Pallisade. Almost half of the Altadena facilities have been destroyed.
The US Army Corps of Engineers removes debris from their home on West Palm Street in Altadena.
(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)
Over 300 were commercial buildings. Churches, schools and hospitals were also lost. The biggest impact was definitely in the house.
Overall, just under 13,000 households have evacuated due to two fires. They were destroyed or severely damaged from nearly 9,700 detached houses and condominiums, almost 700 apartment units, over 2,000 units of duplex and bungalow coats, and 373 mobile homes determined by CAL fire. It came from that.
Approximately half of the detached houses destroyed in the fire do not have a homeowner exemption, suggesting that they are renting, and their losses are the basis for the two communities’ affordable housing foundations. It could raise questions about sustainability.
Los Angeles Housing Division records show that 770 rent control units will be lost as affordable homes if they are destroyed in Pallisard, the Pacific Ocean, and there is no replacement for the city’s rent stabilization ordinance . Department spokespersons can work with city counsel to require that the city’s rent stabilization ordinance be rebuilt under laws applicable to property constructed prior to October 1, 1978. He said he is deciding.
The bathtub is in the debris of the house that was destroyed by the Eton fire in Altadena.
(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)
In Altadena, hundreds of tenants occupied a common type of housing in the first half of the 20th century, and today they were hardly built – clusters of single-family bungalows or cottages are in a single parcel . These plots are not permitted under current zoning, but the county ordinance adopted following the 2018 Woolsey Fire allows owners to rebuild the same way. However, some people lack the financial resources to do so.
The losses expanded over the economic spectrum of LA weighted towards the high end. According to Times’ calculations, among the lost residences there were 79 detached homes, over $10 million in the Palisade Fire Zone. Altadena’s median was much lower at $1.2 million, but more than $150,000 higher than the rest of Los Angeles County as a whole. More than 2,400 homes in Altadena were valued at over $1.5 million.
These values are calculated based on the latest sales in two regions and do not always indicate the economic status of the residents. Many people who were worth more than $1 million just before they were burned were purchased decades ago for less than $500,000.
The Times of Losses estimates of $22 billion Palisades, $7.8 billion in Altadena, for homes destroyed by Cal fires or assessed as up to 50% damage, the total of the worst wildfire disasters in the area It represents just a small portion of the cost. $272 million.
That figure comes from Accuweather, a commercial weather forecasting company that forecasts the total costs for individuals, institutions and the Southern California economy. The methodology considers not only direct damage to home and personal property, but also the ripple effects of cleanup, infrastructure repairs, temporary housing, and lost business and employment. However, the publication did not divide these costs into individual components.
Kura Ble near Odyssey Charter School after the Eton Fire in Altadena.
(Juliana Yamada/Los Angeles Times)
The Times attempted to measure collective losses to property owners – the value of single-family homes, condominiums, apartments and commercial buildings was built over many years or decades and wiped out in a day. Estimates are based on total market value including land and improvements. Most property owners can ultimately recover some or all of the losses through insurance and rebuild the land or sell out the land. Some have already done so.
The inclusive figure for loss reflects the reality faced by people like Christine D.
Christine D. asked her not to use her last name as she was already a target for identity fraud, and insted, plastic groceries bags wrapped over her shoes and head, Santa Monica Bay It was temporarily frozen in the scenery. Catalina Island behind her.
She stood on a marble bust of a flamenco dancer who had been handed over by her mother. She now checks if it survived.
“I thought I could save it and wouldn’t burn,” she said. “It burned. It’s broken and I don’t think it can be saved.”
She doesn’t know what she’s going to do now. She says she is insured “at least” and is advised that reconstruction could cost $1.5 million.
“I’m over 80,” she said. “They are talking about five or six years of reconstruction. I don’t think it’s a fun time to be able to spend another five or six years reconstructing with all the issues.”
She leaves and says she may leave the vacant lot to her grandchildren.
“Well, this is what remains. Look at the view, look at the beautiful scenery.”
The Times analysis shows the low end of the range of estimates fairly close, with a peak of $33 billion. Measuring real estate losses due to fires is, at best, an incomplete movement with assumptions about property value and interpretation of data that was not collected for its purposes.
UCLA’s Anderson School of Management estimated total property and capital losses between $95 billion and $164 billion, and insured $75 billion in losses. Using estimates of the average home value of Pacific Palisade and Altadena based on the ZIP code, UCLA researchers estimated property losses to just over $33 billion.
Like in the era, real estate analytics company Costar has been narrowly drilled into the value of lost property, destroying figures of $30.4 billion and roughly 11,900 homes.
The differences are largely due to the way anomalies are handled in each estimated market value and the damage source data. This was collected by field investigators working to record damages on a wide range of structures and lot configurations under difficult circumstances.
For example, UCLA used the lowest value estimate, multiplied by the highest number of structures of 16,240, although averaged $2.09 million. That number included nearly 4,300 buildings that Cal Fire characterized as utility structures. The era ruled them out.
Costar discovered 11,039 detached homes and 870 apartment units in 74 buildings, and used individual valuations for each property on Homes.com to reach a total of $29.7 billion and an average of $2.7 million for single-family homes. did. Apartments and commercial buildings added another $700 million.
The Times reached a similar rating from the LA County Assessor ratings of recent sales updated to the selling price.
However, the Times discovered hundreds of destroyed properties identified as detached homes based on structure rather than plots.
Altadena landlord Michael Astalis lost five of the multi-homed properties, which had a total of 16 structures standing, including himself.
“We lost $16 million in three and a half hours,” Astalis said in an interview. “I think I’m one of those people who lost more fortune than anyone else in Altadena,” he said.
When a fire broke out in his neighborhood, he went with his daughter and knocked on all the doors of the 174 residents and informed them to notify them.
Astalis estimates that at today’s construction costs rising due to demand from fires, he has enough money to rebuild some of his homes and buildings, but perhaps in all there is no. Insurance at one of the buildings, 716 E. Pine St., covers rent for just two months.
Astalis says his daughter had to take away a $130,000 loan just to return her January security deposit and the remaining rent to his tenant.
“People don’t realize we’re not as bad as small landlords,” he said. “My rent was very low, $1,500-1,700 for a place of 1,000 to 1,200 square feet. Now people are realizing that they have really low rents.”
Under the new county ordinance, Astalis can rebuild all units without going through a zoning process, according to Los Angeles Regional Planning Director Amy J. Bodeck. However, he also has the option of building fewer structures, including a single home in each parcel. Alternatively, he can apply to subdivide the lot into multiple small ownership.
State law requires Astalis to provide alternative homes either in his parcel or elsewhere for all units that were renting at low and moderate income rates.
Bodek said the county may not have the resources to follow, offering multiple units in a low density setting, and “the community is very easy.” “The mild density” that may increase the chances of losing what he described. accept. “
The county is investigating ways to incentivize those tenants and owners to return, Bodek said.
The row of the house changes to tile rubs after the palisade fires.
(Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times)
Those who choose not to rebuild can get relief from some of the property tax bills that cover improvements. A typical home savings amount to about a third of the property tax bill. For example, the home home is worth $108,136 on land and $88,425 for improvement, and is far below its current value due to its long tenure, but owing about $1,000 on the land. , I don’t borrow anything to improve. Land valuations will continue to rise above Prop. 13 limit of 2% per year.
Property owners will pay taxes at 1% of the assessed valuation set by Proposal 13 and a general tax rate of additional taxes that can increase the tax rate to below 2% in some areas.
Using GIS analysis, Times calculated the number of tax tracts that were destroyed or damaged at 10,699. This includes 37 schools, churches and hospitals, with a valuation of $5.2 billion for their improvement.
More than four dozen public institutions will bear the burden of lost taxes.
Time analysis of Los Angeles auditors and controller data shows that more than half of that loss will clash with 18 schools and community college districts, including Los Angeles, Santa Monica Malibu and Pasadena.
Los Angeles County loses its biggest share of about $13 million a year, while the city of Los Angeles loses $9 million a year. This is a small fraction of each institution’s budget.
A jurisdiction with voter-approved bonds, including the Los Angeles Community College District and the City of Pasadena, may lose funds allocated to pay that debt and may have to seek other sources to make payments. .
In addition to the complete loss of $61 million, the agency has owned several ZIP codes affected by the fire when receiving a portion of the taxes on the land as a result of the order of Governor Gavin Newsom. We must endure weather delays when granting property owners until the person defers payment. April 2026.
For both property owners and institutions, their tax funds can take years to the road to normalcy.
Based on the property tax trajectory after the 2018 Woolsey Fire, Christine D.’s 5-6 year horizon may be too optimistic.
A time analysis of the rater data shows that 83% of the improvement values were exempted for 1,462 buildings in Los Angeles County recorded by Calfires destroyed in the Woolsey Fire. By 2024, the total valuation of these buildings has climbed to just 52% in 2018, indicating that only about half of the home has been rebuilt.
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