The record-breaking atmosphere at Atmosphere River has moved from California, but the stage has been set up for more rain this week.
Following the relatively modest storm expected to arrive in Southern California on Thursday afternoon, forecasters have tracked down another, potentially powerful system that can keep Southland before or around Valentine’s Day. It’s there.
There is a 20% chance that there will be a heavy rainfall between February 12th and February 15th, according to Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist at the Oxnard office of the National Weather Service. This is increased from the 10% chance predicted a day ago.
“It’s not slam dunks that make Southern California wet, but the odds are much better – especially increasing in the past days or so. Southern California,” says Alex, a meteorologist at the San Diego office of the National Weather Service. Taldi said.
Heavy rain means more than 2-4 inches in the coast and valleys and more than 4-8 inches at the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County.
However, predictions remain ambiguous. There is a 50% chance of moderate rain. There is also a possibility that there will be little or less rain.
If it arrives, the storm will likely be at the Atmospheric River.
Atmospheric river storms are long steam that can be poured from the Pacific Ocean into California. They have so much water that they are said to be like an empty river. With river events with just a few atmospheres, California can bring to a third to a third of annual rainfall.
“The message is that there is a greater likelihood of a higher total and a higher impact,” Kittel said. The supersecator storm is “not the most likely outcome yet, but it’s enough to really take note.”
This week’s atmosphere river storm was weak by the time it arrived in Southern California and brought little disruption, but it packed a wallop further north. It broke daily rainfall records in San Francisco, San Mateo and Sonoma counties, causing flooding on the Russian River. near Gernville, Mendocino County, and Hopland. The Forestville home slid into a Russian river after a rain-saturated hillside collapsed, and flooding temporarily closed lanes on US 101, Interstate 5 and California 99 throughout the region .
It is unclear whether next week’s storm could have similar effects in Southern California. The duration is hazy. Kittel said it could cause steady rain that lasts between six and 12 hours or last for a day or two. And it’s still too early to know how hard the rain is. It is a key factor that determines debris flow and the threat of landslides in recent burned areas. Meteorologists say that when rain falls at a rate of 0.5 inches per hour, there is a risk of considerable debris and mud flow.
“We’re not sure we’ll bear the brunt of it here at Socal. Tardy said, “But it could be a wet storm than we’re seeing this Thursday night and Friday. There is,” Tardy said.
The storm is expected to be delivered by weakly atmospheric rivers, but is expected to peak between noon Thursday and 6am Friday.
Rain could potentially fall early Thursday, especially at the foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
“The overall message is still — this will be a useful rain, like the rain we just saw. [Tuesday] Kittel generally has minor impacts and threats and risks on Thursday’s storm.”
Long Beach saw 0.12 inches of rain over two days, which ended Tuesday at 2pm. Downtown Los Angeles, 0.24 inches. Los Angeles International Airport, 0.34 inches. Canoga Park, 0.39 inches. Thousand Oaks, 0.44 inch. Fillmore, 0.72 inches. Santa Barbara, 1.2 inches.
Storm No. 1 is scheduled to leave Los Angeles County on Wednesday, while Storm 2 will arrive in Southern California until Thursday afternoon and Friday.
(National Weather Service)
During this week’s second storm, Redondo Beach, Long Beach and Thousand Oaks could have rained about half an inch. Santa Clarita and Canoga Park, 3/5 of an inch. Downtown LA, Covina and Oxnard, about three-quarters of an inch. Santa Barbara, 1.24 inch.
There is a 5% chance of a thunderstorm. The rainfall rate is expected to be between a tenth of an inch per hour and a quarter of an inch per hour, but the isolation period of rainfall could be strong.
(National Weather Service)
“This is the type of storm we generally really want: light, steady rain, not everything comes down at once,” Kittel said. Canyon Road can flood and falling rocks.
According to Kittel, in recent burned areas, there is a very low risk of rainfall if it rains heavily. If a critical debris flow occurs, it is the result of a confused, violent storm cell that embodies directly on the scars of the burn.
Los Angeles and Ventura counties can see gusts of winds from the southeast and southwest, with 6pm on Thursday to 8am on Friday being the high of San Luis Obispo, Northern Santa Barbara and LA counties. It could reach 30 mph to 40 mph in the desert, but it is expected to be milder in the Los Angeles metropolitan area and most of Ventura County, with gusts of winds around 10:00.
In LAX, winds could come out from the east, Kittel said. They are not particularly strong, but are strong enough to change flight operations and encourage delays.
(National Weather Service)
It is expected to be dry in Southern California on Friday nights and weekends, Kittel said, with periodic winds.
Given the recent rain, the risk of fire weather is minimized.
“This isn’t a true Santa Ana. It’s a northerly type of wind event, it’s dry, but it’s not too dry,” Kittel said. “The recent rain is enough to get wet [and] Limit fire weather concerns at least for this next push. ”
From Friday night to Monday, gusts of wind could reach 12 mph in Covina. 14 mph in downtown Los Angeles and Long Beach. 21 mph at Canoga Park, Thousand Oaks, Fillmore. 22 mph on Oxnard. 26 mph at Santa Clarita. 28 mph on Acton. 41 mph at Lancaster and 58 mph at Pyramid Lake.
(National Weather Service)
The recent moisture helps reduce the risk of wildfires across Los Angeles and Ventura counties, but given the severe winter rainfall lack in the area, it is probably not enough to end the fire season decisively. Not.
“If you get a long dry period following the rain, one, two weeks, three weeks [this week]and then we may return to the weather hazards of that fire,” Kittel said. Especially if Santa Ana returns. Severe Santa Ana winds are most common between October and March, but can occur just like in May.
Downtown LA has received just 0.7 inches of rain since the year of water began on October 1st. The average for this period – just over four months of the water year – is 7.68 inches. The average annual average is 14.25 inches.
Downtown’s driest water year on record ended September 30, 2007. The following summer and autumn were bad seasons. The biggest flames were the fires of more than 240,000 acres in Santa Barbara County and the witch fire in San Diego County, burning nearly 198,000 acres, destroying 1,650 acres and killing two. people.
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