Southern California is experiencing its most extreme day of fire weather conditions. This is the unprecedented fifth time this season that the National Weather Service has issued a warning for “particularly dangerous conditions.”
The “particularly hazardous conditions” warning will go into effect at noon Monday for most of Los Angeles and Ventura counties and will last until 10 a.m. Tuesday.
Gusts up to 50 to 70 mph are possible along the coast and valleys, with sustained winds expected to be 25 to 40 mph.
Isolated wind gusts of 160 mph are possible in mountains and foothills, but sustained winds are expected to be in the 30 to 50 mph range, Schoenfeld said.
The “particularly dangerous situation” is an enhanced red flag warning, which already warns of dangerous fire weather conditions and rapid fire spread if an ignition occurs.
“PDS highlights a very dangerous environment that is highly conducive to rapid fire spread should a fire occur,” said meteorologist Rose Schoenfeld of the National Weather Service office in Oxnard. said.
Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, said areas in “particularly dangerous conditions” are facing “the extremes of extreme conditions, almost the worst conditions.”
(National Weather Bureau)
Areas in Los Angeles County that are “particularly at risk” include the northern San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys, Malibu, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, Santa Clarita Valley and other northern areas.
It includes areas like Altadena and Pasadena, as well as areas from La Crescenta in the northwest to the Porter Ranch area.
The northern San Gabriel Valley, which is affected by “particularly hazardous conditions,” is the area north of Interstate 210, including much of Altadena and Pasadena. Areas of the San Fernando Valley within this warning area include Reseda and Burbank and areas to the north.
Much of Ventura County, including Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Ventura, Camarillo, Moorpark, Santa Paula, Port Hueneme and Fillmore, is also “particularly at risk.”
A traditional red flag warning, which warns of severe fire weather conditions and rapid fire spread if a fire ignites, is expected to go into effect for a wider area of Southern California at 8 a.m. Monday and last until 10 p.m. Tuesday. has been done.
Los Angeles County’s red flag warning also includes the San Gabriel Valley, Palos Verdes Peninsula and Santa Catalina Island.
Also included in the red flag warning are large areas of inland San Diego and Orange counties, as well as Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
A red flag fire warning is in effect for a large area of Southern California from Monday morning until Tuesday night.
(National Weather Bureau)
Unlike the devastating Jan. 7-8 storm, where winds came from the north and northeast, Santa Ana’s winds this week are expected to be more traditional and blow from the east and northeast, forecasters said. said.
As a result, forecasters expect the Santa Ana wind corridor, which stretches from Palmdale toward points southwest such as Santa Clarita and Ventura, to be among the most affected areas as winds move toward the coast.
The strongest winds are expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, Schoenfeld said.
Forecasters also warned of treacherous waters along the coast. “Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions that could capsize or damage small and large vessels,” the Bureau of Meteorology said.
What makes this “particularly dangerous situation” different from the four such warnings since November is that “this is one of the driest fire weather events seen so far this year.” “It’s possible,” Schoenfeld said.
The air is likely to be the driest on Tuesday, with relative humidity potentially dropping to as low as 3% in some areas.
“So while the winds are expected to ease as Tuesday progresses, we’ll be moving toward the lowest relative humidity during that period, so we’d urge everyone to remain vigilant,” Schoenfeld said. spoke.
It may rain next weekend. There is a 50% to 70% chance of rain starting Saturday and continuing over the next two days, with a 20% to 30% chance of thunderstorms. This could bring heavy rain to some isolated areas, with the risk of flooding near recently burned areas.
The good news is there may be a mostly beneficial shower that could help put out the fire. And this is a cold storm that will bring snow levels down to 4,000 feet above sea level and bring snow to some mountain communities, Schoenfeld said.
“If we get enough beneficial rain, the fire weather will change dramatically,” Schoenfeld said.
The extreme lack of rain is a major factor in explaining Southern California’s wildfire devastation. In Southern California, the vegetation is dry and flammable, making it much more likely that if an ember falls, brush will ignite it.
The last time downtown Los Angeles received more than a tenth of an inch of rain in a single calendar day was May 5th. 259 days have passed since then. It’s a record for downtown to have never had at least a tenth of an inch of rain. rain. The previous record for downtown was from February 25th to November. On March 3, 2008, a record was set for 253 consecutive days without a tenth of an inch of rain.
Since the start of the water year on Oct. 1, only 0.16 inches of rain has fallen in downtown Los Angeles. This is only 3% of the average rainfall of 5.99 inches at this point in the water year. The average annual precipitation for downtown is 14.25 inches.
Forecasters urged people to take action now to reduce the risk of any fires starting and spreading, and to prepare for potentially damaging winds.
Residents must secure outdoor items such as patio furniture. Adjust your travel time between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Charge electronic devices, flashlights, and battery packs. Fill up the emergency generator’s fuel tank. Schoenfeld said he tried to steer his car away from trees that looked like they were about to break.
Experts warn against leaving certain items within 5 feet of your home, including outdoor furniture, umbrellas, trash cans, and recycling bins. Removing all dead and live weeds is also a good idea, as is removing flammable materials such as leaves and conifers from gutters, roofs, decks, porches, and stairs.
“And when the wind blows, stay away from trees and windows. And again, be very careful with anything that could start a fire,” Schoenfeld said. .
The new warning comes as the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office, which serves Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has issued an unprecedented red flag warning for “particularly dangerous conditions” in a single season. This is the fifth time the order has been issued.
After the department issued the first three warnings, fires broke out and spread rapidly. A 19,904-acre wildfire burned 243 structures in Ventura County in November. In December, the 4,037-acre Franklin Fire spread rapidly in Malibu, destroying 20 buildings. And this month’s Palisades and Eaton fires were among the most destructive and deadliest fires in California’s modern history.
“This wind situation is [this week] It’s similar to a wildfire in many ways,” Schoenfeld said. But, he added, “it hasn’t sunk as deep into the San Gabriel Valley as what happened on January 7,” which quickly fueled the Eaton Fire, which destroyed large swaths of unincorporated Altadena.
The weather service in Oxnard only began issuing warnings for “particularly hazardous conditions” in 2020, issuing two warnings that year, in October and December. Others were not published until November 2024.
(National Weather Bureau)
The Bureau of Meteorology has decided to start using the tagline ‘particularly dangerous conditions’ as a way to issue the highest level of red flag alert.
Essentially, the need for emergency warnings became apparent after the devastating Thomas Fire in 2017, which destroyed 1,063 structures in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. And the 2018 Woolsey Fire destroyed 1,643 structures in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Both were among the most destructive fires in Southern California’s modern history.
In the past, reinforcing the message sometimes seemed to work. At the end of 2019, the Bay Area’s National Weather Service issued a red flag warning, calling it “historic” and potentially “extreme.” At the time, firefighters believed the extraordinary commitment of firefighting resources was critical to preventing the Northern and Southern California fires from getting worse.
The Palisades Fire, which has burned more than 23,700 acres and killed at least 10 people, is 56% contained as of Sunday, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said. The Eaton Fire has burned more than 14,000 acres and killed at least 17 people, but is 81% contained.
The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department said 27 people are still missing, 20 from the Eaton fire and seven from the Palisades.
Times staff writer Connor Sheets contributed to this report.
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