California is entering its fourth month of the typical rainy season, but signs of drought are beginning to appear on the landscape in the Southland.
The last time Los Angeles recorded more than a tenth of an inch of rainfall (a standard that officials typically consider to help reduce thirst for plants and wildfire risk) was on May 5, with only a small amount of rainfall in downtown. It was 0.13 inches.
“I can say this without a doubt.” [one of] “Top 10 driest rainy season starts on record,” said Ryan Kittel, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Oxnard. “Basically, all the plants are as dry as they would be in a normal October.”
California’s rainy season lasts from October to April, but most of the precipitation occurs from December to February.
Current forecasts give little hope that the necessary storms will develop in the coming weeks, leaving Southern California’s landscape ripe for wildfires and chronically water-starved, not far from paying the price. There is.
A large portion of the region, including much of Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties, is in moderate drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor map released this week. The last time Southland experienced similar dry conditions was in early 2023, when the state was emerging from years of severe drought thanks to the start of an unusually wet season.
Until recent drought reports, conditions in Southern California had been considered “unusually dry” in recent weeks. Most of the Central Valley still falls into that category.
“Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation led to widespread drought in Arizona, California, and Nevada,” the new report said.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the latest long-range forecasts show that Southern California will continue to experience a pattern of below-average precipitation throughout January. And drier conditions are expected across the state from next week through mid-January, especially in Northern California, where the season began with heavy rain and snow.
“Southern California remains dry,” said Michael Anderson, state climatologist for the Department of Water Resources. “We remain vigilant at this time. [snowpack] The numbers in the Central and Southern Sierra Nevada are not where we would like them to be, and certainly the outlook here in January is not very positive. ”
Kittel said this lack of rain is likely to coincide with a return to offshore wind production in Southern California next week, which could be potentially damaging.
A hiker walks through dry crater brush on a trail in the Upper Las Vergenes Canyon Open Space Preserve in the West Hills on December 9.
(Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)
“Typically, we receive nearly 4 inches of rain this time of year, which is usually enough to negate any significant fire weather concerns,” Kittel said. “But we’ve had nothing close to this and we’ve had a really active two years.” [of plant growth] …There’s a lot to burn. ”
He said more red flag warnings, which were issued in December when the Franklin wildfire in Malibu started and in November when wildfires swept through southern Ventura County, are likely to be issued.
In the South Coast Hydrologic Region, which includes more than half of the state’s population and stretches from south of Ventura to San Diego, only 10 other water years have started with less than an inch of precipitation through January. In most of those years, the region wasn’t able to make up for the laggards, Anderson said. However, in four of those years, annual precipitation totals were near or above average.
“We have a chance to catch up in January, February and March,” Anderson said. “When a big storm happens, the story changes very quickly.”
Last year saw dramatic changes. At this time last year, Anderson said, rainfall was below average until the “Miracle March” storm brought snow and rising water levels.
“We still have February left, and statistically February is the wettest month,” Kittel said. “There’s still good reason to hope it won’t be dry all winter, but it’s certainly a very dry start.”
Much is still unknown about this rainy season, but authorities are still hopeful, even as they prepare for the worst. If the Southwest does indeed remain dry this winter, stronger conditions in the North and across the Colorado River Basin and more conventional water resources will help offset some of the challenges associated with the drought, especially since Los Angeles. Could be helpful. The county still imports most of its water.
“So far this year, California has seen quite a gradient in precipitation from north to south,” said Andy Rising, manager of DWR’s Snow Research and Water Forecasting Unit. Precipitation remains virtually zero in the southern third of the state, but Northern California has seen above average so far, pushing up the statewide average.
The latest snow survey conducted on Thursday found the state’s snowpack is at about 108% of average for this time of year. However, when we focus on specific regions, we see even greater differences. Snowfall in the northern Sierra is well above the year-to-date average (161%), while the central and southern Sierras are further behind (94% and 75%, respectively). .
The state’s major reservoirs are also currently above average at 122% of year-to-date median levels due to the effects of the past two wet winters.
The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which wholesales water to 19 million people across the region, said it is preparing for a dry season.
“While it is still too early to say what this year of water will be like, at Metropolitan we have been investing in storage and long-term planning to reduce our dependence on the amount of water we receive from imported sources,” Deven said. says Mr. Upadhyay, interim general manager of MWD, said in a statement on Thursday. “We are well-positioned to meet this year’s water needs.”
But while Californians know all too well that the drought could last several years, experts say it’s too early to tell whether the state will enter another long dry spell. I’m doing it.
“We’ve certainly benefited from the last two wet years, which has helped restore some of the water in some groundwater systems,” Anderson said. “But a dry year like this will increase stress.”
Anderson said changing weather patterns could still improve conditions in Southern California, and conversely leave Northern California behind for much of the year. At this time last year, California’s snowfall was 28% of its year-to-date average, but it ended up exceeding this year’s average. In 2022, the opposite happened. In early January, the snowpack was 154%, but by April 1st, when snowfall typically peaks, it was just below average at 40%.
“We’ve been fortunate so far this season that we’ve had some atmospheric river systems that produce solid snow,” Rising said. “But to finish this year on target, we need to make additional snow at a regular pace throughout the winter.”
Still, California’s slopes have been packed with snowboarders and skiers for weeks, even though conditions from Tahoe to Big Bear are markedly different.
Due to the dry and slightly warm weather in the San Bernardino Mountains, there is no fresh natural powder, but this is not unusual for this time of year.
“A slow start is not particularly unusual in Southern California when it comes to natural snowfall,” said Justin Canton, a spokesperson for Big Bear Mountain Resort. “That can change direction pretty quickly, and we’ve seen that happen.”
Canton said while there are no immediate signs of a change in weather, crews and passholders are hopeful that conditions will improve soon and more lifts and trails can open.
“We’re working with what we’ve got,” Canton said. “We hope to see more natural snowfall as the new year begins.”
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