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The halfton Soviet spacecraft, which never reached Venus 53 years ago, is expected to return to Earth this weekend.
The titanium-covered spacecraft, built to land on the solar system’s hottest planet, will survive an uncontrolled, burning rush through Earth’s atmosphere, predicted to occur Saturday. However, experts said it is likely to fall down on water that covers most of the world, or even desolate areas.
University of Colorado Boulder scientist Marsin Pilinsky said the probability of hitting a densely populated area is “infinitely small.”
“We can expect the majority of this object to not burn out into the atmosphere during re-entry, but it could be severely damaged by the impact,” Pilinski said in an email.
By Friday, all signs pointed to re-entry early Saturday morning in the US Eastern time, giving or taking several hours. Space debris trackers around the world had converged on forecasts, but it was too early to know exactly when and where the spacecraft known as the Kosmos 482 would come down. That uncertainty was due to potential solar activity and the old state of the spacecraft. The parachute is now expected to be useless, and its battery has been dead for a long time.
Dutch scientist Marco Langrok estimated the impact velocity to be 150 mph (242 kph) if the spacecraft remains intact.
The Soviets launched the Cosmos 482 in 1972 and intended to send it to Venus to join other spaceships in the Venella program. However, a rocket malfunction caused the failure to be trapped in orbit around the Earth. Gravity was expected to continue to pull it and ultimately trigger its fate.
Spherical shaped spacecraft – packed over 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter, over 1,000 pounds (495 kilograms) – will be the final part of the Cosmos 482 falling from the sky. All other parts fell sharply within ten years.
The surviving wreckage belongs to Russia under the United Nations Treaty.
Here’s what you need to know about these planet events.
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