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After the Southern California rainy season has become inactive, the area is expected to see a surge in moisture this week, which forecasters say could be the start of a flooded march.
A warm front arrived on the Central Coast on Tuesday, spreading south into Los Angeles until Wednesday, allowing you to sprinkle water ahead of the brunt of the storm. Robbie Munro, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, said most of the rain will arrive late Wednesday and be expected to arrive early Friday in Los Angeles County.
Next week we plan to supply more rain to the dry landscape of Southern California. The region withstanded one of the driest wet seasons in recorded history, which has encouraged one of the most devastating fire seasons to date.
As of Tuesday, downtown LA had suffered 5.58 inches of rain since October 1st began. This is below average at this point in the water season, at 11.08 inches. The average annual average is 14.25 inches.
“We’ve been catching up, and after a very dry period until January, we feel the whole winter,” Munro said. “We were still a little below normal in February, but at least we’re closer to what we’re seeing at this time of year.”
During this week’s storm, coastal areas are expected to have a tenth of an inch to one inch of rain. The south facing mountain slopes allowed us to see 1-2 inches of rain. According to weather services, 2 to 5 inches of snow can fall to elevations above 4,500 feet.
The storm is also expected to unleash strong winds. Gusts of wind could peak between 30-50 mph on Thursday.
The weather system also presents the possibility of thunderstorms, particularly Wednesday through Thursday. This can lead to a heavy downpour with intense winds, lightning, small h and even weaker tornadoes.
Predictors expect moisture to be mostly beneficial, but too much rain can lead to debris flow and damage to the scars of Pallisard and Eaton burns.
“We don’t intend to have a series of rain. Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, said: “Don’t let your guard down after the first round of rain comes. We may come back soon.”
Peak rainfall rates can reach between a tenth and a third inch per hour, with rain rates in some areas reaching 0.5 inches per hour. Experts say the risk of rain slipping down a burning hillside increases as the rain begins to drop at a rate of 0.5 inches per hour.
According to the Weather Service, there is a 10% to 20% chance of serious flooding and debris flowing in burned areas in Los Angeles County.
“There is no guarantee at all, but there is a possibility,” Cohen said of the dangers of burned areas. “Our confidence in the flow of important debris that occurs may not be particularly high until just before it occurs, so it’s something to keep an eye on.”
The burn zone has already seen the effects of rain this winter.
Heavy rain last month caused mud and debris to surge on Pacific coast highways, sweeping cars into the ocean and forced Topanga Canyon Boulevard to close indefinitely between the Pacific Coast Expressway and Grandview Drive.
However, this week’s storm is not predicted to be very strong.
The system is also expected to bring fresh powder to the California mountain ranges.
In Northern California, the Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the Lake Tahoe area warning that it will accumulate 2 to 6 inches of snow at elevations below 7,000 feet from 4am to 10pm on Thursday, and 2 to 6 inches of snow at elevations below 6 to 12 inches. Winds are expected to have a gust of 55 mph more than their peak.
In Southern California, the Weather Service has issued winter weather advisories for the mountain ranges of Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and Ventura County. The warning states that if it continues from 7pm on Wednesday to 7am on Friday, snow buildup could be between 3-6 inches for elevations above 6,000 feet, except for up to 10 inches locally near Lightwood.
According to weather services, up to 3 inches of dust can be seen at elevations of 4,000 to 6,000 feet.
The coming storm will help strengthen the snowmen in the state suffering during the warm, dry winters. As of Tuesday, the snowman – usually melts to supply nearly a third of the state’s water, but at an average of 83% during this period.
Munro said wet marching could also help the area slow the return to high-fire season.
“The longer the rainy weather in spring, the more it usually helps you get late when things really get the chance to dry out,” Munro said.
From Friday, the area was able to see dry weather for several days before rainfall on Sunday night. That system could bring light to moderate rain by Tuesday. The forecast for another storm that arrives the next day and continues until March 13th could potentially result in a strip of heavy rain, but the exact amount is still not certain.
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