The strongest storm of the year is scheduled to slam Southern California this week, with forecasters warning of potentially widespread road flooding and potential landslides throughout the region.
The rain is not like a relatively modest storm that has largely brought beneficial rain to Southern California over the past two weeks. Forecasters suggest avoiding travel on Thursdays if possible.
Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, said: “If there’s nothing else, [expect] There are many sophisticated roads and traffic accidents. There are some floods on the road. Not all areas…but so far, it’s more than we’ve seen.
“If you have the option to cancel, you will be delayed [or] It’s a good idea to reschedule all sorts of events, especially on Thursdays,” Kittel said.
People living in recently burning areas should plan to stand still and leave the road if they choose to leave or stay home before the storm. The National Weather Service warned of “potentially life-threatening and damaging floods and debris flows,” saying the next few days could be the wettest storms of the entire winter.
The roads can mutter in mud, even if there is no significant stream of debris. The debris flow is a type of landslide in which water flows rapidly downhill, moving at 35 mph, picking up not only mud but rocks, branches and sometimes huge rocks and cars.
Light rain could arrive Wednesday, but the biggest risk of flooding and debris flow is Thursday. Downtown Los Angeles was able to see 2.17 inches of rain from Wednesday to Friday.
The last time it rained was about a year ago, with 8.51 inches throwing LA over three days, causing damage to mudflows in Viva Liguren, Studio City, Tarzana, Baldwin Hills and Hacienda Heights. caused.
Flood clocks or flash flood watches are expected to be enabled in most of the Sierra Foothills, east of Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley.
This storm is passing through the Atmospheric River. Atmospheric river storms are long steam that can be poured from the Pacific Ocean into California. They have so much water that they are said to be like an empty river. With river events with just a few atmospheres, California can bring to a third to a third of annual rainfall.
Much of Southern California, and the Sierra hills along the San Joaquin Valley, are expected to be under a flood clock or flash flood watch later this week.
(National Weather Service)
Here’s what you need to know:
timing
The shower could start on Wednesday, but it would be light if it were to be completely materialized.
Heavy rain is expected in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, as well as Los Angeles and Ventura Counties from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.
Rain could fall in LA County at about 2pm or 3pm on Thursday, Kittel said.
“The mornings can be dry or wet,” he said. “But it certainly will rise throughout the afternoon.”
Heavy rainfall is expected in Los Angeles and Ventura counties on Thursday night, and in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties on Thursday.
(National Weather Service)
Heavy rain is expected in the Inland Empire and San Diego and Orange Counties Thursday afternoons and evenings. The storm is not expected to be strong there, but “it’s still a significant event for the winter,” said Adam Roser, a meteorologist with the San Diego office of the Meteorological Bureau.
Thursday is also shaped by stormy strongest days in the San Francisco Gulf region and Sierra Nevada.
Shallow landslides are likely to occur, with large river floods and local flash flooding, and urban and stream flooding is expected, according to the Monterey Meteorological Bureau.
Rainfall
Forecasters have been raining in most of Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, with 3-6 inches expected in the mountains. San Luis Obispo County is expected to see an increase of 5-10 inches of 3-5 inches of rain on the mountains.
Lancaster could rain 1.14 inches. Redondo Beach, 2.04 inches. Downtown Los Angeles and Long Beach, 2.17 inches. Thousand Oaks, 2.19 inches; Canoga Park, 2.32 inches. Santa Clarita, 2.38 inches. Covina, 3.07 inches; Santa Barbara, 3.25 inches. San Luis Obispo, 3.75 inch. Cumbria, 3.97 inches.
(National Weather Service)
Riverside could reach up to three-thirds of an inch during lighter than expected rains on Wednesday. Anaheim and Irvine, up to 2/5 inches. Lake Elsinore, San Clemente, Up to 0.5 inches, Ontario. San Diego, Escondido, Oceanside, up to a seventh inch.
Map of predicted rains in San Diego and Orange Counties, and the Inland Empire on Wednesday.
(National Weather Service)
It is not particularly unusual for downtown LA to have about two inches of rain per storm, but such storms can cause problems involving local flooding.
“That’s how we tend to go to Southern California. We don’t have that many light rain storms. Here, the scenario is even more “raining” and we’ve got more rain. It tends to rain,” said Rose Schoenfeld, a meteorologist at Meteorological Services.
In the event of heavier rain than expected from Thursday to Friday, San Diego and Escondido were able to get 1-1.5 inches of rain. Anaheim, Irvine, San Clemente, Riverside, Lake Elsinore, Oceanside, 1.5-2 inches. Temecula, San Bernardino, Ontario, 2-2.5 inches.
It’s not common for places like Orange County to rain 1.5-2 inches of rain in a single storm, but Roser said “it’s definitely going to happen in a winter storm like this.”
A total rain map of Orange and San Diego County and the Inland Empire is projected on Thursday and Friday.
(National Weather Service)
Further north, San Jose, Concord and Livermore were able to rain 1.5-2 inches. San Francisco, Napa, Monterey, Santa Rosa, 2-3 inches. Big Sur, 4-6 inches.
Bakersfield can receive 0.73-1.67 inches of rain. Fresno, 0.82-1.78 inches. 0.6 to 1.36 inches. Sacramento Valley has a 50-80% chance of receiving more than an inch of rain in two days. Rain in nearby Sierra Foothills and Shasta County is 50-85% more likely to cause more than two inches of rain.
Burn with alerts
Southern California endures one of the driest starts in recorded history and is one of the most devastating fire seasons to date. As a result, many burnt areas are wary of potential landslides given that vegetation burns out and the soil cannot be held in place.
Experts say the risk of rain slipping down a burning hillside increases as the rain begins to drop at a rate of 0.5 inches per hour. Rainfall rates are expected to peak between 0.5 inches and 1 inch per hour in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, so this could occur this week.
Kittel said “a considerable number of enhanced cells are promoted.”
These cells could be highly cited like a thunderstorm, Kittel said, “with short, heavy heavy rains, even strong, gust of wind.”
Animated infographics show that shard flow works
“Like the recent flow of burn debris, there is a moderate risk of serious flooding,” Kittel said.
Flood clocks will be active due to recent burns, possibly from Thursday to Friday morning.
Most often there are Eton Fire Scars in the Altadena Region, Palisade and Franklin burns in Pacific Palisade and Malibu, and bridge fire scars west and southwest of San Gabriel Mountains in Lightwood.
Flood clocks will be in effect later this week in the recent Burns area of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
(National Weather Service)
Residents in the burned area who have returned to their homes may want to consider moving temporarily, Kittel said.
“If there’s an option to go elsewhere, that’s great,” the meteorologist said. “Especially on Thursdays.”
Otherwise, he advised, avoided leaving and avoided driving in the recently burned area until Thursday.
In San Diego and Orange Counties and the Inland Empire, rain could drop at a rate of more than 0.5 inches per hour in high-priced areas on Thursday.
Flood risk
Expect flooding on highways and roads, including on and off-ramps. Some roads may be closed due to flooding, and streams and rivers will swell and strengthen. If people are trapped in rivers and other waterways, prompt water rescue may be needed.
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County are at moderate risk of moderate stream flooding. The highest risk in San Luis Obispo County is the descent slopes of the Santa Thalcia Mountains, a mountain that towers over the coast, close to Cumbria and other communities.
Strong wind
The storm is also expected to bring the strongest winds from storms this winter, with gusts of winds of 40-60 mph on the mountains, deserts and the central coast, and 20-40 mph elsewhere.
Downtown LA and Santa Barbara were able to see the peak of 23 mph winds. Long Beach, 26 mph. Redondo Beach, 30 mph. Santa Clarita and Canoga Park, 32 mph. Thousand Oaks, 35 mph; Pyramid Lake, 37 mph; San Luis Obispo, 44 mph; Lancaster, 52 mph.
Strong winds can go down trees or power lines and cause electrical outages.
The east winds at Los Angeles International Airport can change flight patterns and cause delays.
Kittel also said the risk of water gush and tornadoes is very low. “You wouldn’t be surprised if you received a report of a funnel cloud or a water shutdown,” he said.
(National Weather Service)
After the storm passes
The storm could leave the area during Friday – kick off any potential spells that are slightly dry. No strong storms are expected in Southern California throughout most of next week.
“It’s true, by Saturday, we’re dry,” Kittel said. And temperatures are expected to rise next week.
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