At this time four years ago, polls showed Joe Biden winning relatively easily. For example, on this day in 2020, RealClearPolitics polling average shows Donald Trump leading by 7.9 points nationally and holding an advantage in every battleground state, with some polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead. It was even shown that.
Of course, Biden went on to win the election, but the margin in the popular vote was smaller (4.5 points) and the margin in the Electoral College was very close, with a total of about 43,000 votes in three states giving Biden a 269-point lead. Ta. A tie of 269 would likely have given Trump a victory in the House.
This election appears to be even closer, with current national polling averages showing Kamala Harris leading Trump by just 2 points, with all seven battleground states within 2 points. . As these numbers show, the race is close, and this year’s polls may provide a more accurate picture of the game.
However, the possibility of another missed vote remains in the air. If 2020 (and 2016) were to repeat and President Trump’s full support eluded him again, he would be on his way to a decisive victory. And if Democratic support is to blame for why she’s somehow undervalued this time around, it’s Harris who’s in great shape right now.
Why President Trump’s support has been underestimated in the past is up for debate. But it’s clear where it was missed. The states with the largest populations of white voters without a four-year college degree are:
Wisconsin, the state with the largest disparity in polls, has the highest concentration of white residents without college degrees among swing states. Michigan State is second highest. This was also the main reason for the slump in national opinion polls.
Is it happening again? Here’s how the education gap among white voters compares to 2020, on average in current polls:
As you can see, Trump’s lead with white voters without a college education was higher than the polls suggested. But his current 27-point advantage is roughly equal to his 2020 result.
In some ways, this supports the idea that the polls show Trump’s support largely among white voters without college degrees. But again, given the closeness of the polls, it doesn’t need to be close to the same margin of error to make a big difference this time.
For Ms. Harris, one silver lining now is that polls are underrepresenting her support among black, Hispanic and young voters, who have long been the core of the Democratic Party. Here’s how these groups are breaking out now compared to their 2020 activity.
Harris’s obvious concern is that her approval rating among Hispanics is much lower than Biden’s, both in 2020 polls and in the final election results. But much of Mr. Trump’s new Hispanic support comes from younger voters who have not participated at high levels in past elections. If these voters sit on the sidelines this election, Harris could end up doing much better with Hispanics than current polls indicate. She is also somewhat encouraged by the fact that Biden performed better than polls predicted with black voters in the election. Mr. Harris will need to make this happen again.
Harris also expects support among women to be stronger in the post-Dobbs environment than current polling suggests. Current polls show Biden with an 11-point lead over women, but 2020 polls showed Biden with an 18-point lead, and the actual election ended with a 15-point lead.
The campaign saw a dramatic turnaround in gender polls, with some showing historically large gender disparities and others showing relatively modest gender disparities. Harris has an 11-point lead among women, on average, but many polls show her with a much stronger lead. If these polls are correct, it could mean that Harris’ forecast on November 5 is much stronger than the polls currently suggest.
This article first appeared on NBCNews.com. More from NBC News:
