James Fishbuck said in a recent dream that the whole idea came to him. Save any money as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency dismantles parts of the federal government to check dividends for US taxpayers.
The idea began Tuesday when Fishback tweeted about it and Musk responded and vowed to share the idea with Trump. The president himself touted details of the fishback idea from the stage at the FII Priority Summit held in Miami Beach on Wednesday.
“We consider a new concept that gives American citizens 20% savings. 20% pays off their debts because the numbers are incredible,” Trump said.
But as Fishback expects, low-income Americans may not benefit if Trump follows the plan.
Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, has just woken up from that dream to NBC News as Doge, who worked briefly with former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, has just got off the ground, and along with his company’s chief researcher He said he did the job. A simple suggestion to send millions of American household checks.
“We fleshed out this in about two and a half hours,” Fishback said Wednesday. “We sent it [White House chief of staff] Suzy [Wiles]sent it to some people in the admin, sent it to some people in the treasury, and here we will share it with President Trump of Elon, a day or so later. . And that’s exciting. ”
This episode illuminated the speed at which Musk, even the lesser known 30-year-old investor floating on his social media platform X, helped draw the president’s attention to seemingly random ideas. .
Something like “Doge Dividend” is not a completely foreign concept for Trump. This follows the playbook of the pandemic era program from his first semester. The government then sent payments directly to the Americans with the president’s name attached.
“The US president needs to sign a check and the word Doge should be very easily included in the check because you need to be honest,” Fishback says. Employees check every month, but my name is there. President Trump is the country’s leader, the officially elected president of the United States. His name should be on a check. Because that’s the responsibility of these savings. ”
The difference during the pandemic was that all those who fell below a certain amount received their checks.
In his proposal, Fishback begins with an estimate that Doge will achieve a $2 trillion cut to the government. He takes 20% of these savings ($400 billion) and divides them into 79 million tax-paying households, each receiving $5,000. Importantly, rebates are only sent to households that are net income taxpayers. This is that low-income Americans are not eligible for return – people paying more taxes than they have returned. Most Americans with adjusted gross income of less than $40,000 effectively don’t pay federal income taxes, according to the Pew Research Center.
Fishback writes that inflation does not exacerbate because dividend checks are funded by already allocated dollars, rather than shortage stimulus checks.
“Doge’s dividends differ from past stimulus checks (for example, the 2021 American Rescue Plan), as only households pay it on tax basis,” he writes. “Tax-paying households are more likely to save (and not spend) transfer payments like Doge’s dividends because consumption is a low share of income. …Repaying debt, saving emergency situations, university or retirement. There’s nothing about investments in. In fact, debt payments are actually deflationary.”
In an interview, Fishback said concerns about inflationary pressures caused by rebates should be eased when dividends are only made to households that exceed a certain income threshold, and pandemic-era checks “indiscriminately” “It was sent out.”
“Many low-income households have basically seen transfer payments of 25-30% per year… income income is sent exclusively to households, which is a net wage in federal income tax. They , there is a lower tendency to spend and a higher tendency to save on transfer payments like Doge’s dividends.”
However, even among Republicans, there is no consensus about sending Doge by check in Money Doge. The group claims it has saved $55 billion so far on its website, but some claims about the work have not withstanded the most basic scrutiny. As an example, Doge claimed it saved $8 billion from a single cancelled contract with the Department of Homeland Security. The deal turned out to be clearly stated that it was just $8 million.
Musk initially vowed that Doge would find $2 trillion in savings by mid-year next year, but has since eased his expectations.
“We have to save money before we actually save money before we check our mail,” said Mark Zandy, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. I added. So if you give dividends, it certainly won’t help in that regard. It feels like you’re putting your cart in front of a horse. I have a cart. I haven’t seen the horse yet. ”
With regard to the idea that rebates are reserved for American households that exceed a certain income threshold, Zandi says that such a model does not spend immediately, but rather a higher rate of receivers that save payments. I agreed to connect.
“We’re sliced our hair,” he said. “These are really on the margins. The broader point is… there’s a long way to go for Doge to get here, see if Doge saves anything, and ultimately it’s profitable for the economy or dividends Before we talk about checks,
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La, was asked about the ideas at Thursday’s Conservative Political Action Conference. The proposal didn’t look warm.
“Well, look, I mean, politically, that’s great for us, you know. It gives everyone a check,” Johnson said. “But if you think about our core principles, then rightly, financial responsibility is what we do as conservatives. That’s our brand. And we have $36 trillion We have federal debts and we have a huge deficit that we are claiming. You think we need to pay off your credit card, right?”
On the same day, Musk discussed the proposal with Trump from the CPAC stage, saying the president was on board. The world’s wealthiest Musk, who has become perhaps the most influential presidential adviser, said, “It’s… that’s what we’re trying to do.”
The White House declined to comment on the proposal.
Fishback said he traveled to Washington this week and had many promising conversations about his proposals with stakeholders, but he didn’t let anyone else go. He posted a video on Thursday showing him having a brief conversation with Musk.
“Look at those who criticize this plan now and say Doge will never deliver $2 trillion in total savings. “Let’s say it’s just $1 trillion. Well, checks start at $5,000. That’s $2,500. Let’s assume it’s just $500 billion. …The check is $1,250. That’s real money.”
“We have to tell the truth here. It’s not necessarily about the amount of dollars,” he added. “It’s about the symbolism that the government will send back money in the form of reparations to compensate hardworking Americans.
However, as Zandi pointed out, the cut itself does not free itself from potential economic consequences.
“There’s no free lunch here,” he said. “So if you fire people, it’s going to hurt the economy. It costs money. You’ll see exactly what the fallout of this is in all the wider economy. You need to see, it’s just a short term. How about the long term? You’re here at least making the implicit assumption, that the work you’re cutting and the work you’re shrinking were really unimportant , [that] There was no benefit from people working for FAA or USAID, or for FTC and FDA. ”
“This is a pretty strong position to take these jobs that are neither profit nor important in the long run, and that they are not doing anything important to ensure that our economy and nation function well. ” he added. “I don’t pretend to know, but I don’t think anyone else knows that.”
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