A note about the toilet stall. Celebrities walking on the trail. And supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris are bracing for the possibility of a secret ballot by Republican women as Liz Cheney declares that “women will save the day.”
This will be the second time in the last decade that a Democratic woman will run against Donald Trump in the presidential race. And once again, the former president faces a persistent gender disparity. It’s unusual for both Republican and Democratic presidential campaigns to focus on the same group of voters, but as the race gets closer, both Harris and Trump find themselves doing their best to mobilize women. .
As Election Day approaches, women voters are far more likely to say they support Harris, with some polls showing the vice president holding a double-digit lead. The Des Moines newspaper’s J. Ann Selzer’s outlier poll shows Ms. Harris significantly ahead of Mr. Trump in Iowa, where she also won in 2016 and 2020. According to the survey, their weight within the party has not been disclosed. By affiliation, this shift is driven in part by women voters over 65, who beat Harris by a 2-to-1 margin.
“Harris has a clear lead among women. The question tomorrow is whether this will be a historic election for a Democratic candidate,” said Scarlett Maguire, a pollster at JL Partners. “In fact, among undecided voters, the biggest hesitation about voting for Trump is related to concerns about how conservative influences on Trump’s agenda will affect women’s rights. I found out that it was.”
Meanwhile, polls show Trump building a solid lead over men. He has sought to woo young male voters in particular by appearing on shows such as Joe Rogan’s popular show “All In Podcast.” Nerk Boys. Rex Fridman, a computer scientist at MIT. And others.
Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway has dubbed this bidirectional phenomenon the “double gender gap.”
The gender gap is wide among both young and older voters. A total of three recent NBC News polls conducted in July, September, and October found that Gen Z men favor Trump over Harris by 10 percentage points (51% to 41%). However, Gen Z women support Harris by more than 40 percentage points (68% to 26%). The same poll found baby boomer men favored Trump over Harris, 57% to 39%, while baby boomer women favored Harris, 52% to 43%.
It’s not that President Trump has ignored female voters. On the campaign trail, the former president promised to be a “protector” for women, saying he would save them from isolation, danger and anxiety from “all the problems” facing the country today.
Asked over the weekend about his message to female voters considering voting for Harris, President Trump told NBC News that voting for Harris risks economic catastrophe, saying, “You’re the wrong person.” You’re voting for that, and we’re going to be finished.” When we are in a recession, we are no longer safe. ”
The Trump campaign is making a unique pitch to female voters in the final stages of the campaign by hosting an event featuring his daughter-in-law and Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump. Former NASCAR driver Danica Patrick. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. Former Trump administration official Morgan Ortagus and others. On Monday, President Trump invited Lara Trump and her daughter Tiffany to join him on stage at a battleground site on the eve of Election Day.
His campaign is also joined by former opponents and campaign rivals, with Megyn Kelly announcing Monday that she will attend Trump’s rally in Pittsburgh to explain why she is voting for him. . Adequate penetration of female voters. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed published this afternoon, Nikki Haley urges Americans who, like her, may not “100% agree” with Trump to vote for Harris over Harris. I recommend that you do so. time. “Despite much speculation, Mr. Trump and Ms. Haley have not appeared on the campaign trail together in recent weeks.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump concluded Tuesday’s debate with different messages about the future of the United States in their closing statements.
It comes as President Trump at times veered off message as he ransacked the country in the final stages of the campaign, attacking political opponents including Cheney, whom he called “radical war hawks” and chickenhawks during rallies. That’s what I received. I wondered last week how a former Republican would feel on the front lines of a war.
NBC News’ final national poll shows how small changes in turnout can lead to different outcomes for each party.
According to polls, Ms. Harris has the support of 49% of registered voters, compared to Mr. Trump with a similar 49%. Only 2% of voters said they were undecided. The poll, conducted from October 30 to November 2, found that women supported Harris by a 16-point margin (57% to 41%), while men supported her by an 18-point margin (58% to 40%). ) was found to support Trump.
Other results based on slightly different turnout scenarios provide a different picture of what the outcome of the election will be. The situation is slightly more favorable to Republicans — not only white voters and voters without college degrees, but also more male voters — giving Trump an advantage over Harris.
Turnout among women, college-educated white voters, and voters of color rose slightly, giving Harris a lead over Trump.
Trump’s campaign has cited partisan turnout as evidence of Trump’s advantage in early voting. In a memo released Monday, the campaign cited data from veteran Democratic political strategist Tom Bonnier to argue that the number of women voters is declining.
It is difficult to compare 2024 and 2020. This is because in the previous election, the coronavirus pandemic disrupted the behavior of many voters, and President Trump was even more proactive in discouraging mail-in voting.
According to NBC News, when asked why they thought there was a gender disparity, both Democratic and Republican Arizona voters said the reason came down to Roe v. Wade. He suggested that it lies in the legalized right to abortion. Harris vowed from the beginning to restore this right. Her campaign days.
“This exists because a lot of men never think about who brought them into this world,” says Lara Johnson, a remote assistant who supports Harris. .
“Well, reproductive rights has a lot to do with it, but I don’t really know,” said Ned McCarthy, 70, a Trump supporter.
Gender inequality is not new. Nearly every presidential election since 1980 has been divisive, with Democrats winning over women voters in recent decades. It was the same in 2016, when Hillary Clinton led female voters by double digits, and in 2020, when President Joe Biden won female voters.
Democratic Party officials said Harris would lose this election if women voted. Of the roughly 77 million people who had cast early or mail-in ballots as of Monday afternoon, women accounted for 53%, while men accounted for just 44%, according to NBC News data.
At the same time, Trump campaign officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, told NBC News that their feelings about the race remain “cautiously optimistic.” President Trump is buoyed by two-thirds of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, his continued advantage in the economy and cost of living, and an optimistic assessment of his presidency.
The NBC News poll shows Harris leading by just 9 points among Latino voters, 53% to 44%, but the sample size is small and the margin of error is large compared to the overall poll.
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