As Los Angeles reels from the staggering losses caused by the firestorm, a question is emerging with significant economic, financial and political implications. The question is: What was the cause of the fire?
The Palisades and Eaton fires destroyed more than 12,000 structures and are expected to be the costliest fires in U.S. history, with estimates ranging from $50 billion to $150 billion.
Residents are comparing notes on what they saw in the surrounding hills just before the fire broke out. The power company is investigating the failure of nearby equipment. Politicians are pointing fingers. Online sleuths have been sharing videos and other alleged evidence on social media platforms.
A small fire broke out near the site of a large Palisades fire on New Year’s Day a week ago. Is it possible that old embers have been rekindled? Houses burned by the Eaton fire appeared to still have power, even in high winds, before the inferno began. Was a downed power line the cause? A “person of interest” has been identified in the Kenneth fire. Was the fire the work of an arsonist?
Officials have so far taken a cautious and cautious approach. They said they don’t have a firm answer yet, but will have one once they can complete the complex, often months-long “origins and causes” investigation that has just begun.
“There’s a lot of misinformation out there and a lot of people want answers, and rightfully so. And we’re going to provide them,” said U.S. Alcohol, which is leading the investigation into the cause of the Palisades fire. Ginger Colbran, spokeswoman for the Bureau of Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said: “But we need to get additional personnel here to investigate.”
Colbran said the ATF’s National Response Team, one of the nation’s best-known forces for investigating large-scale disasters, is dealing with the Palisades fire and will get to the bottom of it. But with the fire still burning, fire patterns changing and new evacuation orders still in place, investigators need more time to gather the facts.
“It’s speculation to jump to conclusions right now,” she says. She could not provide a timeline for when the investigation would be completed.
The same is true for other investigations in the region led by other city, county, and state agencies with fire investigation expertise, and given the number of fires and the complexity of the work, the Sharing the workload.
Investigations into the cause of fires as large and intense as these Los Angeles fires often take months, if not longer. For example, after a massive wildfire killed more than 100 people on Maui in August 2023, ATF’s national response team took more than a year to investigate and did not release formal findings on the cause until 2024. It’s only since October.
Experts said investigating the causes of wildfires, including those that spread to urban areas, can be extremely difficult. The reasons are clear, including the strength and temperature at which such a large fire can destroy almost everything in its path.
“It’s basically like throwing a crime scene into an oven,” said Michael Walla, director of Stanford University’s Climate and Energy Policy Program and former California wildfire commissioner.
However, he said the science behind fire investigations has become very advanced and technical, and urban environments can take advantage of the large amount of available data, including from public works projects.
Walla said determining the cause of these fires is critical and that information could help Los Angeles and other cities avoid similar fires in the future. But for the same reason, he said it was more important to reach the right conclusion than to rush to an answer.
“We need to respect the process and ensure that the process is followed,” he said. “We also want to work to ensure the process is fully completed.”
One thing to keep in mind about fires like this is that there isn’t necessarily a single source or cause, Wala said. In some cases, large fires can have multiple sources, especially in weather conditions like the one Los Angeles has experienced recently, where Santa Ana winds are blowing at unusually high speeds.
Walla said the big question he has is about utility decisions by Southern California Edison and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power to shut down power lines or keep them electrified during high winds. .
SCE says it has cut power, but he doubts that is the case. LADWP typically does not cause power outages, relying on efforts it has made to stabilize and strengthen power lines, such as installing power lines on steel poles instead of wooden poles.
He said the main problem with strong winds like last week’s is “blow-in,” meaning objects such as tree branches can travel through the air even from a distance, even if power lines are quickly cleared of the easement. There is a possibility that it could fly and hit power lines. This area is well maintained and cleared by the utility company.
Walla said the investigation into the cause of the fire will likely include collecting data from utility companies, including from each homeowner’s meter, about what was happening on the power grid in the early days of the fire. said.
He said if the LADWP line actually caused the Palisades fire, it could be a major financial loss for the city. Private power companies found at fault in past fires have been forced to pay billions of dollars to victims. Some of the damage could be paid for by the state’s wildfire fund.
Dean Flores, a member of the California Air Resources Board and former state senator, said the investigation is currently looking into a number of potential ignition sources, but that “if history is any indication, power lines remain That’s the main focus.”
“Past experience shows that utility equipment is a leading cause of California’s deadliest wildfires. This historical pattern cannot be ignored when discussing preventive measures.” Flores said. “The real question here is not just how these fires started, but to what extent could they have been prevented?”
He said the state, through the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), is undermining its wildfire prevention strategy by cutting funding for programs to underground power lines, which reduces the risk of wildfires. It is a proven long-term solution to reduce
“Yes, undergrounding is expensive at $3.” [million to] “That’s $4 million per mile, but that’s a pittance compared to the catastrophic damage caused by the wildfires that devastated Los Angeles County, and the cost could well exceed $500 billion.” said Flores.
He believes the CPUC has inadvertently allowed these risks to persist “by deprioritizing undergrounding in favor of lower-cost, less effective strategies such as insulated power lines and vegetation management.” He said there was.
Flores said utilities Southern California Edison and PG&E have reduced the risk of fires by putting some power lines underground, which has resulted in fewer utility-induced fires in high-risk areas. It is reported that there has been a significant decrease. But he said CPUC funding cuts are forcing utilities to scale back those efforts, putting even SCE’s modest plan to put 160 miles of transmission lines underground this year at risk. .
Investigators in recent days appeared to be focusing in part on the area surrounding the Eaton Canyon power tower where the fire started, which officials acknowledged was part of the investigation into the Eaton Fire outbreak. There is. Edison said it had found no evidence to suggest its electrical equipment caused the fire.
Another theory that has recently surfaced regarding the Palisades fire is that a fire that started in the area a week ago (caused by fireworks in the early morning hours of New Year’s Day) may have been extinguished despite prior efforts by the Los Angeles Fire Department. The flames were said to have flared up again due to strong winds. I stomped on it.
Colbran said investigators will consider all possible causes of the fire, but any such link is just speculation at this point.
Investigators told the Times that officials are aware of the proximity to the previous fire and the Palisades fire and are looking into whether they are related. People are known to hang out in the area, and officials said someone may have started a new fire in the same location on Tuesday.
Walla said such an origin is possible. He cited as an example the massive Hermit’s Peak Calf Canyon fire in New Mexico, which broke out after remnants of a U.S. Forest Service-set fire rekindled. The 1991 Oakland Hills firestorm also began after a small fire was not completely extinguished.
Walla said the Palisades fire could have been caused by multiple factors at the same time. As an example, he cited the Marshall Fire in Boulder, Colorado. The fire was caused by both damaged power lines and embers from a garbage fire a week earlier.
“Multiple ignitions can occur at approximately the same time and location,” Walla said.
It will be impossible to draw conclusions about the cause of the LA fire until more evidence is collected, Walla said. But it’s important to arrive at the right answer, he said.
“We need to learn from urban firestorms so we can find ways to prevent it from happening again,” Walla said.
Los Angeles Times reporter Richard Winton contributed to this article.
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