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Syria’s 13-year civil war has been thrust back into the spotlight by a surprise rebel attack on Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities and an old business hub. The rebel pressure is one of the strongest in years in a war whose destabilizing effects have spilled over borders.
It was the first attack on Aleppo by rebels since 2016, when a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retake the northwestern city. Intervention by Russia, Iran, Iranian-allied Hezbollah and other groups has allowed Assad to maintain power with control over 70% of Syria.
Intensified fighting could reopen new fronts of violence in the Middle East as US-backed Israel battles Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Iranian-aligned groups. is increasing.
Robert Ford, who last served as U.S. ambassador to Syria, cited months of Israeli attacks on Syrian and Hezbollah targets in the region as factors giving the Syrian rebels an opportunity to make headway. He cited the ceasefire with Hezbollah.
Some of the key aspects of the new combat are listed below.
Why is the fighting in Aleppo important?
President Assad has been at war with rebels seeking to overthrow him for 13 years, a conflict that has left an estimated 500,000 people dead. Some 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country, and this refugee flow has helped change Europe’s political map by galvanizing far-right anti-immigration movements.
Approximately 30% of the country outside of Assad’s regime is controlled by various rebel groups and foreign forces. The United States has about 900 troops stationed in northeastern Syria, far from Aleppo, to guard against a resurgence of Islamic State. The United States and Israel have occasionally carried out attacks against government forces and Iranian-aligned militias in Syria. Turkey also has troops in Syria and has influence with the broader coalition of rebel groups storming Aleppo.
After years of little significant territorial change between Syria’s warring parties, the fighting could become “very, very significant and potentially game-changing” if Syrian government forces prove unable to hold their ground. “There is,” said Charles Lister. He has been analyzing Syria for many years at the US-based Middle East Research Institute. Risks include if Islamic State fighters see this as an opening, Lister said.
Ford said the fighting in Aleppo would destabilize more broadly if it drew Russia and Turkey, each with their own interests in Syria, into direct, violent combat.
Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto via Getty Images On November 30, 2024, a thick column of smoke was seen rising over the city of Aleppo after a series of airstrikes by Syrian fighter jets. The attack was carried out in retaliation for the rebel occupation of the city.
What do we know about the group leading the attack in Aleppo?
The United States and the United Nations have long designated the rebel group that led the Aleppo attack, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known by its initials HTS, as a terrorist organization.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani emerged as the leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch in 2011, during the first months of the Syrian war. This was an unwelcome intervention for many in the Syrian opposition, who wanted to keep their fight against President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal rule untainted by violent extremism.
Golani and his group claimed responsibility for the deadly bombing early on, vowed to attack Western forces, confiscated property from religious minorities and called in religious police to crack down on women’s modest dress. dispatched.
Researcher Aaron Zelin noted that Golani and the HTS have been trying to rebuild themselves in recent years, focusing not only on military operations but also on promoting civilian government within their territory. His group severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016. Mr. Golani has cracked down on some extremist groups in his territory and increasingly portrays himself as a protector of other religions. This includes allowing Christian masses in Idlib last year for the first time in years.
Zelin said that by 2018, the Trump administration admitted it was not directly targeting Golani. However, HTS has allowed some wanted armed groups to continue operating in its territory, and has shot at US special forces since at least 2022, he said.
What is Aleppo’s war history?
At the crossroads of trade routes and empires for millennia, Aleppo is one of the commercial and cultural centers of the Middle East.
Before the war, Aleppo was home to 2.3 million people. In 2012, rebels captured the eastern side of the city, which became the proudest symbol of rebel advances.
In 2016, government forces, supported by Russian airstrikes, surrounded the city. Russian artillery shells, missiles, and crude barrel bombs (fuel cans and other containers filled with explosives and metals) systematically destroyed nearby areas. Starving and under siege, rebel forces surrendered Aleppo that year.
The entry of Russian troops was a turning point in the war, allowing Assad to remain in the territory he held.
Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo this year have targeted Hezbollah weapons depots and the Syrian army, among others, according to an independent monitoring group. Israel has barely acknowledged the attacks on Aleppo and other government-held areas in Syria.
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