WASHINGTON — Nearly three years have passed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a war that has taken many complex twists and turns. But one strange new element stands out in particular. That is the North Korean army mixed in on the battlefield.
South Korean intelligence first sounded the alarm about South Korea’s presence in Russia last month, and since then, evidence supporting that claim has been aired at NATO headquarters in Brussels, at the United Nations, and in Washington.
For Ukraine, which is already in dire straits, this latest development is yet another dangerous sign. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told South Korean TV on Thursday that he expected North Korean troops to join fighting with Ukrainian forces within “days, not months.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking alongside South Korean officials at the State Department hours after North Korea conducted its longest intercontinental ballistic missile test in history, made a similar prediction on Thursday, warning that Russia would launch a front-line operation. He said he may use the North Korean military in the coming days.
Television screens in Seoul show footage of North Korea launching an intercontinental ballistic missile on October 31st.
(Lee Jin-man/AP)
Here’s some background on how they came to be on the doorstep of a battle 5,000 miles from home, and what impact they will have on the region and the wider world. I will.
How big is this?
Some analysts see this as a turning point.
“The arrival of North Korean soldiers on European battlefields marks a major escalation in the largest invasion of Europe since World War II,” said Peter Dickinson, editor of Ukraine Alert, a publication of the Atlantic Council think tank. This is an unprecedented event in history.”
But in a war in which military casualties in Russia and Ukraine have already exceeded 500,000, the roughly 10,000 North Korean troops (a figure cited by Blinken and the Pentagon) are a force to be reckoned with over a wide range of battlefields. Some suggest it will do little to change the relationship.
Why now?
Even if it is not numerically significant, the input of human resources can be important at a time when both sides are suffering from attrition and are scrambling to recruit new recruits.
The North Korean military is believed to include members of special forces, and Ukrainian intelligence has said the force includes at least three high-ranking generals. North Korea has been providing Russia with artillery and ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine for some time, and could help the country’s military use those weapons more effectively.
Some analysts say the move to seek external help should be interpreted as a sign of weakness on Russia’s part.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (left) and Vladimir Putin, 2019.
(Alexander Zemlyanichenko/Associated Press)
Olysia Rutsevich, head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, a British think tank, said: “Russia has not made any significant gains on the battlefield, so it has to attract more personnel from its allies, more supplies and equipment.” “I rely on it to bring out the best in people,” he said. Webinars hosted by organizations.
But President Zelenskiy branded it a Russian attempt to test the will of Ukraine’s allies.
“President Putin is checking the reaction of Western countries,” he said in an interview with Korean TV. “And I believe that after all these reactions, President Putin will make a decision and increase the contingent.”
Will this lead to escalation?
Kremlin officials insist that NATO’s long-standing aid to Ukraine is no different from a friendly country seeking to support Russia’s war effort.
But throughout the war, both countries have been careful to avoid the conflict escalating into direct combat between Russia and NATO, which has a mutual defense pact with 32 members including the United States.
North Korea turned up the heat on Friday with Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui’s visit to Moscow and talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He said his government would support Russia until it wins in Ukraine, calling it a “holy war” and accusing South Korea and the United States of planning a nuclear attack on North Korea.
Meanwhile, South Korea has already said it is considering militarily supporting Ukraine in response to North Korea’s moves.
Ukrainian soldiers place mines and other obstacles along the front line near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, October 30.
(Oleg Petrasiuk/Associated Press)
What about China?
All this puts China in an awkward position.
Although China has supported Russia over the course of the Ukraine war, but stopped short of providing offensive weapons, there is reason to be wary of rising temperatures between Russia and North Korea.
“China does not like Russia having significant influence over North Korea,” Victor Cha, South Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote. “Furthermore, it would not be in China’s interest if the long-term effects of this cooperation were to lead to increased North Korean capabilities, leading to further expansion of the U.S. military presence and allied capabilities in the Chinese region.”
How will North Korea benefit?
North Korea and Russia signed a strategic partnership agreement in June, and analysts said the return on troop deployments could be immediate.
Chatham House Korea analyst Edward Howell said that could include food aid and financial aid, but “what Kim Jong Un wants most is advanced missile technology.” .
“We know that North Korea wants to improve its satellite technology capabilities, its conventional weapons capabilities, its missile launch systems,” he said in a Friday webinar.
South Korea has doubled down on its own warning, telling the Pentagon this week that it is “very likely” that North Korea will pursue technology for tactical nuclear weapons, reconnaissance satellites and nuclear submarines.
How will the US election affect this?
Transitions between administrations in the United States can be tense times, especially since the previous administration. Traditionally, the U.S. government has conveyed stern but quiet warnings to adversaries against attempts to gain military advantage during periods of perceived uncertainty, and a change of administration has He emphasized that the preparations for the event will remain unchanged.
If Kamala Harris wins Tuesday’s vote and is elevated from the vice presidential position, there will likely be a greater element of continuity between the Biden administration and her own administration. If Donald Trump wins or contests the results, it could add a significant element of volatility.
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time, said he saw a need for “deconfliction” measures in the final days of the former Trump administration.
In testimony last year, Milley told the Senate Armed Services Committee about phone conversations he had with Chinese generals in 2021, including one in the days after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Milley said the call with General Li Chuo was aimed at reassuring China that the United States had no intention of launching an attack.
The testimony came after the publication of Peril, a book by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, in which Milley expressed concerns at the time about the possibility of erratic behavior by the outgoing president. It is said that he was doing so.
