Donald Trump made notable gains in Orange County in the November election, but the suburbs have turned into battleground districts between Republicans and Democrats, turning increasingly purple, reflecting the demographic and political realignment unfolding across the country. It wasn’t enough to win the growing county.
Kamala Harris won Orange County, but the margin was narrower than Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When it comes to presidential politics, Orange County has gone Democratic since 2016, and areas like Santa Ana, Anaheim, and Anaheim are seeing more blues. Irvine has conquered redder areas such as Huntington Beach and southern Orange County.
But experts say the 2024 results show some warning signs for Democrats.
“Early numbers show that Donald Trump will likely gain significant gains among minority voters, including Latino and Asian voters,” said Jeff Corless, a former strategist for the Orange County District. It means that it has penetrated.” Atty. Todd Spitzer. “What we are hearing is that he has made similar gains in other communities similar to Orange County across the country. It also gained the support of
Democratic data expert Paul Mitchell said that in addition to lower Democratic turnout this year compared to 2020, voters are accustomed to Trump from his previous term and potentially feel more secure. He said Trump probably did better in the county because of the
“In some strange way, President Trump may have normalized things,” Mitchell said. “He’s been in our political spotlight for the last decade. Voters probably like the economy better under Trump.”
In 2016, Clinton received about 100,000 more votes than Trump in Orange County, becoming the first Democratic county electorate in 80 years to elect a presidential candidate. Biden fared even better in 2020, beating Trump by more than 137,500 votes. Harris currently has a narrow lead over Trump, but the margin of victory is likely to be much narrower than in past elections.
Orange County’s votes are still being counted, and the final numbers don’t have to be certified until Dec. 5 by the county and Dec. 13 by the state. But experts say it’s clear Mr. Trump has tapped into the disillusionment voters are feeling. They are frustrated with the direction of the country and the economic pain plaguing many people living in the suburbs.
“While members of the press and people like me still often take President Trump literally, voters lived through this in the past, preferring the economy and not the apocalypse,” said the veteran. said Republican strategist and Trump critic Rob Stutzman. advised former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He noted that President Trump’s improved performance in Orange County is not an outlier.
“He did better. Look at what he did in New York, on the East Coast, in Massachusetts,” Stutzman said. “There’s a red dot that hasn’t been there in the past few decades.”
Still, there were some bright spots for Democrats. Specifically, Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine was able to retain the seat vacated by her unsuccessful campaign for the U.S. Senate seat and flipped the 45th Congressional District race. In a heated race that was one of the most expensive in the country, first-time candidate Derek Tran defeated Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steele of Seal Beach.
A University of California, Irvine poll released last year found discord among Orange County voters, particularly Republicans and those who choose no party affiliation, and that they were optimistic about Orange County. Despite being moderately optimistic about California, he said he did not have good feelings about the state. America’s future.
” [election] “This result is much more of a statement about people’s dissatisfaction with current politics than it is a grand statement about Trump or the Republican Party,” said John Gould, chair of the university’s social ecology department.
Orange County has been getting bluer since 2012, but that trend disappeared in 2024.
Harris won Anaheim, Buena Park, La Habra and Santa Ana, but her lead over Trump was 10 to 15 points lower than Biden’s in 2020.
Preliminary data as of November 25th
Orange County Voter Registration Office
Gabriel Lamar Rumi and Sandhya Kambapati Los Angeles Times
“This is not a sign that Orange County will suddenly become a red county,” Gould said. “This is what it means to be a purple county.”
Michele Monda, a Republican who lives in the deep blue city of Laguna Beach, voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with her son and grandson in mind. High housing costs and generally unaffordability make it difficult for middle-class couples like her son and daughter-in-law to build a life in many parts of California, including Orange County. There is.
“Who is taking care of them?” Monda said. “They’re barely getting by, but honestly the Democrats don’t seem to care. I know Trump is a billionaire, but I think he also understands the needs of middle-class people. Masu.”
Trump’s stance on economics and immigration were the two main factors that motivated her to vote for him. She doesn’t always support President Trump’s actions, but she loves his policies. It’s no surprise, she says, that other Orange County residents sided with him as well.
“I think people are tired of the Democratic Party line, the economy, the whole platform. What they stand for just doesn’t work,” Monda said. “I think Californians are waking up.”
Mr. Trump’s improvements in the county have sparked excitement among California Republicans who have long sought to tighten their grip on Orange County as Democratic voter registration increases and the race becomes more competitive.
Orange County has been a conservative stronghold for decades, the birthplace of former President Nixon, the birthplace of Ronald Reagan’s rise to the governor’s mansion and then the White House; , was the de facto symbol of the California Republican Party.
The county’s transition over the past decade from a reddish region to a more politically and demographically diverse region has long fascinated people.
“Orange County is a battleground district,” said John Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and former executive director of the California Republican Party.
Trump’s growing popularity among Latinos and Asian Americans nationwide is also very likely having an impact in battleground states like Orange County. Republicans in the county have long tried to attract Latinos and Asian Americans to the party, with mixed success, and Mr. Trump’s performance is not just among Black Americans but among those voters. This could be a sign of profit even in the short term. He also won back suburban women who rebelled against Republicans during the 2016 campaign and in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal protections for access to abortion in 2022.
Democrats focused on messages about the loss of reproductive rights during this year’s campaign, in television ads and during the convention that nominated Harris. But Stutzman argued that this argument didn’t resonate as well with suburban women in wealthy areas like Orange County as Democrats had hoped.
Orange County saw a larger decline in Democratic votes than Republican votes from 2020 to 2024.
Voter turnout this year was lower than 2020 in every city in the county.
Vote decline rate from 2020 to 2024
Vote decline rate from 2020 to 2024
Preliminary data as of November 25th
Orange County Voter Registration Office
Gabriel Lamar Rumi and Sandhya Kambapati Los Angeles Times
“Most women in America still have access to an abortion. The overwhelming majority still have access to an abortion,” he said. “I don’t know if there’s a connection to an existential threat that their rights are being eroded more than ever.”
Harris won a majority of votes across deep blue California, but Trump is projected to win Butte, Stanislaus, Fresno, Inyo, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, all of which This is the area that Biden was in charge of in 2020. Trump also gained ground in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles. Comparison of 2016 and 2020 for Angeles County.
“For Trump to win Orange County, he had to penetrate minority voters, and he did so through the issues that matter to them and the struggles they face.” he said.
Democrats’ ability to register voters in Orange County has also slowed.
From October 2022 to October 2024, the Orange County Democratic Party increased by just over 3,100 voters. At the same time, the number of Republicans increased by 31,000, according to California Secretary of State data.
In years when Republican voter registration has declined, the number of independent voters has increased. Many longtime Orange County Republicans, irritated by Trump’s outlandish speaking style and policy positions, branded themselves “Never Trumpers.” But Orange County Republicans are making a concerted effort this season to re-register former Republican voters and promote early voting and mail-in voting, a move that has seen President Trump’s opposition to such efforts in 2020. I am aware of how much damage I have caused to the party.
“When Trump was first elected, he wasn’t everyone’s favorite flavor of ice cream, and I think you saw a lot of Republicans who decided to go independent,” Fleischman said. “I think people are coming back to the party because they’ve decided they’re OK with Trump.”
The Orange County Republican Party went so far as to host a ballot collection day on Oct. 11 with Republican offices as designated polling locations. The move will make voting more accessible “while maintaining the highest levels of election integrity,” the company said at the time.
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